It starts tonight, with Denver starting favorite over Miami.
Since the last time in the NBA Finals a team that entered the has qualified Playoff with the eighth seed it’s been 24 years. It was the spring of 1999 and that team was the New York Knicks, who arrived to challenge coach Popovich’s San Antonio Spurs. The premises leading to these Finals are similar to those of 24 years ago. Denver – like San Antonio then – comes as a favourite: it does so by virtue of the first seed from the Western Conference and the domain that showed throughout the post-season. Miamion the other hand, comes having accomplished a feat: the feat of qualifying through the skin of the cuff via the play-in and having withstood Boston’s comeback from 3-0 to 3-3 in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Nuggets’ path to these Finals is actually an example of clear domain, from gentlemen sweep in the first round, against Edwards’ disappointing Timberwolves, crushed by the equivocal Towns-Gobert. In the second round, the difficulty bar increased considerably, having to face the Suns who probably fielded the best quintet in the west, with Durant, Booker and Chris Paul. And, in any case, the victory was clear: 4-2, betting on the opponents’ three-point shooting percentages, who appeared reluctant to choose that as the main option (especially from the corners), and on Monty Williams’ short rotations. Perhaps, however, the Conference Finals were the most peremptory manifestation of Denver’s superiority, lo sweep trimmed to the Lakers by Lebron and Davis. This was the series that definitively marked the return of Jamal Murrayfinally recovered after the serious injury of 2 years ago and ready to resume the role of shoulders of the best player of these playoffs: Nikola Jokic.
The sense of the path of the Heat, however, can already be guessed from the first round. The prize for the hard-fought victory against the Bulls seemed to be the sacrificial victim for Giannis Antetokounmpo’s favorite Bucks. However, Giannis’ injury opened the series, which was then resolved with a brilliant 4-1 from Miami. The second round, against New York, can be summed up in a very simple way: when you dominate your opponents mentally and physically, when you look like a team of men against one of boys, you simply can’t lose. However, it is the Conference Finals that will be talked about for decades: the basket at Derrick White’s siren in game 6 it seemed like they could open the doors of history to the Celtics, who for a few days flirted with the possibility of becoming the first team to come back from 0-3 a series of Playoff. Spoelstra’s zone and the will of Jimmy Butler closed the door in the face of Tatum and his companions, victims of their main player’s unraveling on the first action and of an embarrassing number of turnovers.
The calendar
The home factor is obviously in favor of the Nuggets and will force the Heat to take home one of the first two games that will be played in Colorado. Miami is above all suspicion a team capable of stealing an away game, but it will credibly pay for the effort made to close the series against the Celtics. A further advantage for Denver which, in addition to being favorites, reaches these Finals with ten days off. Erik Spoelstra and his staff will have very little time to prepare properly, though it’s worth remembering that in the modern NBA, pretty much everything about the other 29 teams is known. The other side of the coin is that such a large break risks sending the group led by Mike Malone off the pace, who will now necessarily have to play the difficult role of favourite. Uncomfortable role especially when you’re hunting for the first franchise title like Denver.
The key duels
Too easy to talk about the Pairs Game: Adebayo-Butler vs Jokic-Murray will be the 4 main players of these finals. Without performances worthy of their stars, the respective teams will not have much hope of being crowned champions. Murray is unlikely to be put on Butler’s trail, while the opposite will almost certainly happen, at least initially. Butler seems like the ideal prototype to hinder the Canadian, but it remains to be understood how this will impact his energies in the offensive midfield. The Nuggets will try to hide Murray defensively, who will probably end up marking Gabe Vincent and Lowry, the two point guards of the Heat.
The challenge under the planks presents two completely different types of players, and here there are no alternatives: Jokic and Adebayo will brand each other. The Serbian is historically annoyed by longs with a robust shot from average or 3, excellent skills as a roller and able to contest his shot, reaching his heights.
Well, you understand…
Adebayo doesn’t seem to possess all of these characteristics and Spoelstra will need to be able to generate enough offensive movement to force Jokic out of his game comfort zone. Otherwise, Bam won’t have many weapons to force him to accumulate fouls and fatigue. Especially this Adebayo, who appeared in a conspicuous decline in games 6 and 7 against Boston.
The couplings
The options available to Malone to mark Jimmy Butler are many and all show different advantages and uses: the classic Caldwell-Pope to not pay in attack; Michael Porter Jr., who could hinder the opponent enjoying his advantage in terms of inches; Bruce Brown Jr. with his athleticism and, finally, the most extreme solution, but to be kept in the barrel for any 4-minute Butler: Aaron Gordon, one of the best defenders in the league.
On the other hand, the Heat will have to adapt to allow Adebayo to contain Jokic’s infinite solutions and his P&R with Murray. Miami will also have to pair up quickly in transition, otherwise they’ll suffer triple hails from Porter Jr., Murray and Caldwell Pope. Denver is not Boston: deploying the area for many minutes, betting on 3-point percentages could prove fatal, perhaps even unfeasible. This weapon was used by Miami to jam the green-and-white attack, exposing all Brown, Tatum, and Smart read limits: it would be quite different to offer it to Jokic’s team and excellent shooters such as Porter, Murray and KCP.
However, these playoffs demonstrated the length of the Heat roster: shooters like Duncan Robinson enter from the bench, venerable masters like Kyle Lowry, unsuspected resurrected like Kevin Love and even carneades like Highsmith, able to generate points and counter-attacks at the Boston Garden in game 7. Denver has not met teams this deep in the playoffsand indeed he has always been able to count on the certainty of having a greater force on his bench than the opposing one.
Furthermore, it should not be underestimated the charisma and experience of a coach like Spoelstra who, over the years, has proven to be able to ferry his Heat even in the stormy seas of the post Lebron. The Philippine-born coach will field all his overflowing knowledge of these stages which are instead semi-unknown to Malone. The Finals NBA are particular creatures, in which the details, the intuitions of the individuals, often make the difference.
Therefore, the solidity shown by Denver could come back to haunt the Colorado team if Spoelstra succeeds in putting sand in the opponents’ gears. In fact, the Nuggets have always shown great ability in exploiting their characteristics and have never met anyone really capable of breaking the bank. If there is anyone who can do it, however, it is certainly Spoelstra who has from him the possibility of relying on the most competitive superstar in the League who can throw the game into the mud with every possession. Jokic’s class and grace may not be enough when the competitive fury of Butler.
The former Bulls player seems to have come to this post-season in an enviable state of mind. None of the nefarious events that have happened to his team in the last month seem to have managed to upset him. Not defeat at play-in, not Herro’s injury, not the Celtics’ comeback from 0-3. Butler handled every issue confidently and professionally. He never gave a glimpse of tiredness or nervousness and at all times he seemed sure of his means and of the team as a whole.
Never underestimate the heart of Jimmy Buckets.
Trying to hazard a predictionone can’t help but think back to the 1999 Finals. Back then, the Knicks finally bowed out 4-1 to Duncan and Robinson’s Spurs in 5 games, with the historic triple by Avery Johnson from the corner. Net of all the differences in the case, the outcome could be repeated this time too, obviously again in favor of the Western Conference champions.
Let’s say Denver in 5 games, then. Joker on top of the world.