The Washington Post columnist Jose Rogin wrote an article citing Biden administration officials who said China may be planning a destabilizing response without knowing exactly what Beijing will do.
After the Financial Times recently reported that Pelosi might visit Taiwan in August, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian responded, “The US is required to abide by the one-China principle and the three Sino-US joint communiques, and not to arrange for Pelosi. The Speaker of the Western House of Representatives visits Taiwan.” He also threatened that “if the U.S. side goes its own way,” “all the consequences arising therefrom” “must be entirely the responsibility of the U.S. side.”
Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Chinese Communist Party’s official Global Times, suggested on Weibo that the Chinese military aircraft “accompany” Pelosi’s special plane and take the opportunity to cross the island of Taiwan, opening up “a brand new space for Chinese warplanes to exercise sovereignty over the island of Taiwan.”
The latest report by the Financial Times on the 23rd quoted several people familiar with the situation as saying that the rhetoric used by the CCP in private goes even further, suggesting that there may be a military response. For example, the use of fighter jets to intercept the U.S. aircraft that Pelosi was on.
Rokin’s article notes that Biden’s team cannot ignore the risks, which officials believe are especially high ahead of Xi Jinping’s third re-election in November at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
Rokin disclosed that Pelosi will take a military plane according to normal procedures, and the U.S. military is planning options to protect Pelosi’s delegation. The measures currently under consideration include mobilizing aircraft carriers or sending fighter jets to provide close air support, but doing so “may be misunderstood by the Chinese side as A provocation, not a defensive measure.”
Biden said on the 20th that the military believes that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is “not a good idea right now.” On the 21st, Pelosi responded that based on security considerations, she never talked about her travel plans, but she also said that it was important to show support for Taiwan.
Rokin pointed out that if Pelosi does delay her trip at this moment, Beijing may decide that its high-handed tactics have worked.