The economic projections in the strict sense indicate a GDP at + 5.9% this year, revised from the + 7% of the June estimates, but at + 3.8% in 2022, from + 3.3%, and at +2 , 5% for 2023, up from 2.4%. The first forecast for 2024 points to 2%. As a result, the unemployment rate was revised to 4.8% for this year (from 4.5%) but confirmed at 3.8% and 3.5% for 2022 and 2023. For 2024, a 3.5%. The postponement of the announcement of the tapering is probably linked, in addition to the uncertainties about the pandemic, to the worsening of the short-term outlook. The level of neutral “long-term” rates remained unchanged at 2.5%.
Inflation was instead revised upwards to 4.2%, from 3.4% in June, for 2021; to 2.2% from 2.1% for 2022, unchanged at 2.2% for 2023 and 2.1% for 2024. Core inflation also revised upwards: 3.7% for 2021 (from 3%), 2.3% for 2022, 2.2% for 2023 (it was 2.1%, in June, for both years). It could be 2.1% in 2024.
On the Evergrande affair, the president assured that the United States does not have a great deal of direct exposure. “It is a particular situation in China, which has a high debt for an emerging economy,” he said.