[Foresight Quick Review]What CCTV footage leaked from Xi’s absence from important military meetings | Xi Jinping | Wei Fenghe | National Defense and Military Reform Seminar

[The Epoch Times, September 24, 2022]Hello friends, today is Friday, September 23. Welcome to Vision Quick Review. My name is Tang Jingyuan.

Today’s Focus: It is reported on the Internet that Xi Jinping was detained in a mutiny, and the core figures appeared; Xi was absent from an important military meeting, what did the CCTV camera language indicate? “Nanzao” broke the news that Xi Jinping was re-elected again, who should believe the contradictory information?

Before I start discussing today’s topic, I would like to remind my friends that today I will have a live broadcast interaction on the member network after the live broadcast, which is only a few minutes apart. This interactive program is free to watch in the first 24 hours, so friends are welcome to move to the member network to continue to follow my program after the live broadcast. Friends who watch it for the first time only need to simply register. Of course, I also welcome friends to subscribe to members. For specific information, please go to the member website to check. thanks for your support.

Another weekend is here, time flies very fast, and the whole situation changes very quickly. Every time an important meeting of the CCP is about to be held, there will be a lot of rumors spreading, both positive and negative, full of praise and criticism. The advantage is that we can fully collect information from all parties to avoid bias in our judgment due to the stratospheric effect. The disadvantage is that the information is too cluttered, which will increase the difficulty of verifying and distinguishing the authenticity, which will take a lot of time and energy.

In any case, China and the world are indeed in a period of great changes. The changes in the current situation are of great interest to many people, so it is worthwhile to spend some time and energy to sort out the context of relevant events. I have told you before that I usually don’t mention many rumors that are widely circulated on the Internet, and some information that is too scary and cannot be verified, because a lot of information is isolated evidence, and some videos Fragments often have no beginning or end, and important elements such as time and place are missing, so it is difficult to use as a basis for further discussion.

What I want to discuss with you today are the rumors that have attracted a lot of attention on the Internet in the past two days. The general idea is that there has been a coup in Beijing and Xi Jinping has been placed under house arrest, or that Xi Jinping has lost power. The chairman of the Military Commission also hangs up and so on.

Why are you discussing this rumor with everyone? Because this rumor has some factual basis, the main basis is that the military held a national defense and military reform seminar, Xi Jinping did not attend, and the former commander of the Northern Theater Command, Li Qiaoming, who was rumored to launch a mutiny, appeared at the meeting and also Sit in the first row. In addition, Xi Jinping’s early return to China for the SCO summit; Song Ping’s appearance on the platform changed; Wang Yi’s trip to the United States to send a signal that he hoped to improve relations; the large-scale cancellation of domestic flights;

All of this information comes together, and the conclusion of the heat transfer emerges: Xi Jinping may well have gone wrong, and policy at the top is shifting.

Is this conclusion reliable or not?

I still say the same thing, I am not an accelerationist, nor a pro-Xi faction. I have always tried to look at these news as objectively and rationally as possible, hoping to see the truth behind the surface, which is directly related to our judgment and choice. Of course, my analysis is just the words of a family of people who eat melons. Sometimes it is right or sometimes wrong. It is only for friends’ reference.

As we said just now, the core fact of this rumor is the just-held national defense and military reform seminar. The focus of this conference is two: the absence of Xi Jinping and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, and the unexpected appearance of Li Qiaoming . Let’s talk about this meeting first.

This seminar on national defense and military reform was held in Beijing on September 21. The two vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission, Xu Qiliang and Zhang Youxia, and members of the Central Military Commission attended the seminar. Relevant persons in charge of the armed services and armed police forces, including the Academy of Military Sciences, the National Defense University, the National Defense University of Science and Technology and other military academies attended the meeting. In other words, the military’s brains are basically all in place.

According to official reports, the theme of this meeting is to discuss military reform, and the main agenda is two: 1. To convey Xi Jinping’s instructions to summarize the historical achievements of military reform and focus on the new situation and new requirements for preparing for war; 2. Two deputy military commission officers The chairman and the chief officers of 12 units made speeches on the achievements of the military reform and the follow-up work arrangements for the military reform.

In other words, from the perspective of the meeting itself, its superficial function is to summarize the achievements of military reform, but in fact it is to summarize and show off Xi Jinping’s major political achievements, which is somewhat similar to the previous official summary of Xi Jinping’s so-called political achievements on Hong Kong, Xinjiang and other issues. .

From this point of view, Xi Jinping did not attend, at least on the surface, and it is more appropriate to summarize the results by others. It is somewhat ugly to sum up his own achievements and give himself money. As for Wei Fenghe’s absence, according to official information, Wei Fenghe had no public activities on the 21st, and his most recent appearance was on September 19th in Xi’an to meet with Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Bajwa.

Wei Fenghe is the only member of the Military Commission who is absent. As the Minister of Defense, he does not actually have much real power. Strictly speaking, if there is a coup or mutiny, he is not the one who plays a key role, so his The absence looks less political and more likely due to factors such as health.

Before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, will the new members of the military commission team appear in the future?

In my opinion, another function that this meeting really has is actually to bring out the future new members of the Military Commission before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The military leaders who have changed personnel have appeared, indicating that the composition of the next military commission of the CCP has basically been finalized. It can also be said that this was an indirect meeting to refute rumors, and the information released to the outside world was that the power structure of the CCP Military Commission was in the process of normal replacement. Among these military leaders, the most eye-catching focus is of course Li Qiaoming, the former commander of the Northern Theater Command.

In the previous program, when Xi Jinping promoted Wang Qiang to general and took over the post of commander of the Northern Theater Command, we had discussions with everyone, saying that Li Qiaoming was either taken down because of an accident, or he rose up in secret. Possibly into the Military Commission. At that time, a video that was said to be a mutiny in the northern theater, or a military exercise, was circulating on the Internet.

I didn’t mention this video to everyone at that time because I checked it out and also referred to the analysis of the video image and sound by many professionals. I felt that this video was suspected to be a previous video, and the place where it happened was not necessarily confirmed. In Northeast China, I saw more than one foreign netizen point out that this video was from the Iraq War many years ago. Therefore, until there is no more conclusive evidence to confirm the authenticity of the video, there needs to be a big question mark.

In addition, it is common sense that if there is a mutiny in the northern theater or a live-fire military exercise at an airport, it is unlikely that only a blurred video will flow out, so I did not discuss with you about the incident. Heat Chuan’s “mutiny” was just a discussion on Wang Qiang’s promotion by the line of fire itself, and then continued to observe.

Looking back now, there is obviously a problem with the mutiny argument, because Li Qiaoming’s appearance this time first proved that he was not taken down, but it seems that he probably did not get promoted, but it happened once Balance of duties.

The reason for this is that according to the official CCTV news broadcast, the 61-year-old General Li Qiaoming was sitting next to Liu Zhenli, the third commander of the Chinese Army at the meeting, and he was wearing an army chest badge. Liu Zhenli’s current position is army commander, but his chest badge has been replaced by the military commission’s chest badge during the meeting.

Therefore, such an arrangement shows that Liu Zhen will immediately enter the new army commission, and Li Qiaoming will most likely succeed Liu Zhenli as the next army commander.

Secondly, if we pay attention to the sequence of shots reported by CCTV, we will see that it is like this. First, the whole venue, then a close-up shot of Xu Qiliang’s speech, and then a panoramic scan shot of the venue. Shang Fu et al., then close-ups of Zhang Youxia and Miao Hua, then still shots of Li Zuocheng and Zhang Shengmin, and then to He Weidong, the former commander of the Eastern Theater Command, Liu Zhenli and Li Qiaoming, the current army commanders, and finally the Rocket Force commander. Li Yuchao et al.

According to public information, the two Vice-Chairmen of the Military Commission Xu Qiliang and Zhang Youxia are both 72 years old, Li Zuocheng is 69 years old, and the absent Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe is 68 years old. Under normal circumstances, these four people should retire. Among the members of the Military Commission, only Miao Hua and Zhang Shengmin can stay in office.

However, both Miao Hua and Zhang Shengmin were generals who were political workers. According to the practice of the CCP, at least one of the two vice-chairmen of the Military Commission should be a military general. Therefore, He Weidong, who entered the camera after Li Zuocheng and Zhang Shengmin, became the most likely candidate.

In fact, people with sharp eyes have noticed that He Weidong, who resigned as the commander of the Eastern Theater Command in January this year, wears two lines of text on his armband. The upper line reads “Central Military Commission” and the lower line reads “Joint Operation Command Center” 8 characters. Therefore, it seems that He Weidong may serve as a strong contender for the vice chairman of the Military Commission.

That is to say, CCTV’s close-up shots of the venue clearly follow the sequence of “the current vice chairman of the Central Military Commission – the current members of the Central Military Commission – the possible new vice chairman and members of the Central Military Commission – the commanders of the major military services and the commanders of the theater”.

From this point of view, in the structure of the new CMC, it is more likely that the vice chairmen are Miao Hua and He Weidong; and the CMC members may include Zhang Shengmin, the remaining secretary of the Military Discipline Inspection Commission, and the newly promoted Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli and others. . In it, Miao Hua once served in the 31st Group Army in Fujian for a long time, and has a deep relationship with Xi Jinping, who has worked in Fujian for 17 years, and can be called Xi Jinping’s cronies.

And what is the background of He Weidong? He was promoted to general by Xi Jinping in 2019. At that time, 7 people were promoted at the same time. The other 6 people were members of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, and He Weidong was the only general among them who was not even an alternate member of the Central Committee. It’s quite rare.

More importantly, He Weidong is also from the Fujian 31st Group Army. He has served as the brigade commander of the 92nd Motor Infantry Brigade, the 86th Motor Infantry Division Commander, the Chief of Staff of the 31st Army, and the Deputy Commander of the 31st Army.

Xi Jinping has a deep relationship with the 31st Army. He also prefers to use the generals of the 31st Army. The WeChat vest “Chang’an Street Governor” account of Beijing Daily has published an article reviewing the relationship between Xi Jinping and the 31st Army, and statistics say that Xi Jinping has inspected at least 13 times. After the 31st Army, it can be seen that he regards the 31st Army as his “child soldier” mentality.

Why do I say that this military reform seminar is actually the debut meeting of the next military commission team? This is the reason. We can see that the important core position of this team is still occupied by Xi Jinping’s confidants. Including Li Qiaoming, who is widely rumored to be the protagonist of the mutiny, is also showing a normal state of neither rising nor falling. Under such circumstances, there are rumors circulating on the Internet that Xi Jinping has been controlled or placed under house arrest, only to wait for the announcement of the Seventh Plenary Session of the Central Committee. It seems rather far-fetched. Because the reason is very simple, unless the current military commission team and the next military commission team suddenly all turn against Xi Jinping collectively, it is possible to truly win Xi Jinping.

In my opinion, this possibility exists only in theory. We have seen rumors that Hu, Wen and others took advantage of Xi Jinping’s absence to visit and persuaded the elder Song Ping to come forward. They took control of the Central Security Bureau that night, and then joined forces with Jiang Zeng’s faction and members of the Central Committee and retired Standing Committee members in Beijing to vote by show of hands. ousting Xi Jinping’s military power, then placing him under house arrest, etc.

The core figure of this rumor is obviously Song Ping, which is supported by the fact that Song Ping recently spoke out in support of reform and opening up.

We found out that Song Ping’s statement of support for reform is true. This happened at the summary and commendation meeting of the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Jiangsu COSCO Foundation for Helping the Elderly. This meeting was held at the Wanshou Hotel in Beijing. The 105-year-old Song Ping delivered a congratulatory message in the form of a video, mentioning the phrase “reform and opening up is the only way for China’s development”.

But there are two points worth noting. One is that the meeting was held on September 12, before Xi Jinping went abroad; the other is that Song Ping’s sentence was quickly edited and deleted. Therefore, whether Song Ping, who is 100 years old and has been away from the political center for many years, can his influence be large enough to settle the Central Guard Corps that Xi Jinping has painstakingly managed for many years, I think a huge question mark needs to be placed.

Wang Yi’s change of tone of the wolf?

In addition, I checked the statement about Wang Yi’s change of tone and calling for friendship between China and the United States, and it actually originated from the We-Media article inside the wall, which has now been deleted. Wang Yi’s hope that China and the United States can rehabilitate old friendship is also true. On September 19, Eastern Time, Wang Yi took the opportunity of attending the United Nations General Assembly to meet in New York with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, a well-known representative of the “Panda Hug faction” in the United States.

In this meeting, Wang Yi indeed mentioned the hope that Kissinger will continue to play a unique and important role in helping the relationship between the two countries get back on track as soon as possible.

But we should not ignore another opposite message: at this UN General Assembly meeting, Russia was isolated and left unnoticed because of its aggression against Ukraine. Only Wang Yi, the representative of the CCP, had a high-profile meeting with the Russian delegation. At the official meeting, the two sides took off their masks and shook hands in front of reporters.

Anyone who knows something about the United States may know that Kissinger’s influence on Sino-US relations is basically the same as Song Ping’s influence on the current political situation in Zhongnanhai. It’s a little bit of face, but in the eyes of those in power, they already belong to the characters who were slapped on the beach by the back waves of the back waves.

If Xi Jinping is really under house arrest, the new leader needs to change course and make up with the United States. There is no need to go the way of Kissinger. Just ask Qin Gang to meet with Deputy Secretary of the State Council Sherman and others for a briefing. Wang Yi went all the way to Kissinger’s way, which just shows the real situation of the current CCP in the United States. The authorities don’t want to lose the face of the Americans, so they have to go and see the CCP representatives and smile. Kissinger blending. Why Kissinger is so pro-Communist, to put it bluntly, it is just the eight words of “a foolish person has a lot of money, and he makes a fortune in silence”.

Why did China cancel flights on a large scale?

As for the large-scale cancellation of flights that many people are concerned about, especially the large-scale cancellation of Beijing is of particular concern. This news was fermented on September 21. Looking at the public data, we can see that the cancellation rate of domestic passenger flights in the country on that day was 52.55%, while the cancellation rates on the 20th and 19th of the previous two days were 53.53% and 54.03% respectively. So it’s not just a one-day phenomenon, it’s going on for days.

Yesterday, the cancellation rate of entry and exit at Beijing Capital Airport was 61%, and the cancellation rate at Daxing Airport was 65%, which continued to rise, but this should be related to the yellow warning of strong winds of level 7-9 in Beijing.

Why are there mass cancellations of flights across the country for several days in a row? The official statement is that it is related to the epidemic. A certain area suddenly enters the silence of lockdown, and the flights must be greatly affected. I personally feel that this may only be part of the reason, and it is difficult to fully explain everything. But on the other hand, even if the government restricts flights for some inconvenient reason, it is difficult for us to directly conclude that this has something to do with the coup in Zhongnanhai. The reason requires further observation, and it is not appropriate to suddenly affirm or deny anything.

“South China Morning Post” reports again on German and French leaders’ visit to China in November

Finally, I would like to add a related informational message.

The South China Morning Post, which exclusively reported that the four European countries would visit China collectively to meet Xi Jinping in November, was once refuted by Zhao Lijian as false news. Yesterday, the newspaper countered Zhao Lijian and reported again that German Federal Chancellor Schultz and French President Emmanuel Macron may go to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping in November this year, but this time the leaders of Germany and France will visit China respectively, and Not in tandem.

The report also named Shi Mingde, the former Chinese ambassador to Berlin, in Berlin last week to discuss the details of Schultz’s November visit to China.

As we discussed before, the background of “Nan Zao” and Xi Jinping are not in the same boat, and it can be said to be opposite. If Xi Jinping really has a serious situation and the opposition has gained power, they only need to export to domestic sales through their own media channels to release the huge pressure on the conclusion of “Xi Jinping’s re-election” at home and abroad.

But what we are currently seeing is the opposite, and the media of the opposition are all releasing the message of Xi Jinping’s re-election. Therefore, I think we should look at relevant rumors and various news information more rationally. We all hope that this system will be disintegrated as soon as possible, and we all hope that these man-made disasters will end soon, but we also have to face the worst possible outcomes rationally and prepare accordingly.

Again, you can expect the best, but you must plan for the worst.

OK, in the next two or three minutes, I will transfer to the member network for an interactive live broadcast. Friends are welcome to continue to pay attention. That’s it for today’s topic, we’ll see you later on the member network.

“Foresight Quick Review” Production Team

Responsible editor: Li Hao