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[Editor’s note]: The results of the German general election were released. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) ranked first with 25.7% of the votes, followed by the Union Party (Union) 24.1%, the Green Party (Grüne) 14.8%, and the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) 11.5. %. Except for the Coalition Party, the votes of the other three parties have increased compared to four years ago. Although the winner of the Social Democratic Party has great hopes of forming a traffic light alliance, the loser’s coalition still has the possibility of forming a Jamaican alliance, and there are still variables in the formation of the cabinet. The only constant may be that the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party will participate in governance. This Tuesday, the four possible coalition parties completed the first round of bilateral tentative meetings for the formation of a cabinet, and then they will enter the stage of tripartite meetings. At the same time, the Coalition Party is exhausting the remaining small opportunities bit by bit. This article is the fifth in the “Germany 2021 General Election” series launched by FT Chinese.com.
This year’s German voters seem to be contradictory: On the one hand, they are eager for change. After 16 years of Merkel, after experiencing the financial crisis, refugee crisis and the new crown crisis, voters’ hopes have changed. The Coalition Party broke through the worst election since 1949. The record fell from the 30% line for the first time. On the other hand, they hoped to be stable. No more people dared to vote for the Green Party, which represents climate change. Although the Green Party has achieved historically good results, it has The expectations are too far apart, and not enough voters dared to go to the left. The red-green-red alliance composed of the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Left Party (Linke), which was heatedly discussed before the election, did not realize the possibility this time. The SPD candidate for prime minister, Olaf Scholz, is neither from the Coalition Party, and has the same style as Merkel, taking into account innovation and stability. Fortunately, he fits the subtle psychology of voters.
However, Schultz has not had the last laugh. The Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party are choosing whether to form a winning combination with the Social Democratic Party, namely the Red, Yellow and Green Traffic Light Alliance, or to form the Black, Yellow, and Green Jamaica Alliance with the Coalition Party. The destiny of the big party was uncharacteristically handed over to the hands of the two smaller parties. The Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party cannot be “kings”, but they can decide who will sit on the “throne.” Of course, the grand coalition government of the Social Democratic Party and the Coalition Party is still established in theory, but the probability of forming is about zero.
From normal to abnormal, what happened in the middle? With the decline of the Coalition Party and the Social Democratic Party as major parties, the two-party coalition has been unable to obtain a majority of seats, and Germany may thus enter the era of the three-party coalition. Although the Social Democratic Party has won, it cannot rule out and avoid the successful formation of a cabinet by the Coalition Party, which is next. This is not without precedent in history. In 1969 and 1976, the Coalition Party won the general election, but the Social Democratic Party and the Liberal Democratic Party successfully formed a coalition government. However, it is still a period when the Coalition Party and the Social Democratic Party, as large parties, can have more than 40% of the votes, and they are evenly matched. Small parties such as the Liberal Democratic Party can change one end of the balance by themselves. The difference this time is that the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party will only change the situation if the two parties work together.
This Tuesday, the Green Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Social Democratic Party and the Coalition Party completed the first round of bilateral tentative meetings to form a cabinet. Just 48 hours after the end of the general election vote, that is, last Tuesday, the four high-level leaders from the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party won the “meeting.” Late at night, the four people posted the same four-person selfie on Instagram, with the same text content. Netizens on Twitter made it into a four-person chorus “We are a family”. Last Friday, before contacting the Social Democratic Party and the Coalition Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party met again.
The game between political parties is also quite delicate. The Green Party is committed to the combination of traffic lights, but it does not exclude Jamaica. Before meeting with the Coalition Party, the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party, Christian Lindner, asked him to show his determination to form a cabinet instead of waiting for the defeat of the Social Democratic Party. The goals of the Coalition Party and the Social Democratic Party are of course very clear. The former is Jamaica and the latter is a traffic light. This is almost their only opportunity. However, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party remained silent on the specific content of the talks. The failure similar to that of the Jamaican Alliance four years ago is not allowed to happen again.
Four years ago, the coalition party achieved 33%. Even if it is not ideal, the initiative to form a cabinet is still in its own hands. At the time of the Jamaican negotiations, the Liberal Democratic Party finally withdrew, one of the reasons was that they felt that they did not receive enough attention from the Coalition Party. But this time, the first to meet is the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party. The yellow-green combination must be firm, and the rest will depend on which party, the Social Democratic Party or the Coalition Party, performs better. Given that the Liberal Democratic Party prefers the Alliance Party, the Green Party is closer to the Social Democratic Party in terms of political views. If Jamaica is formed, the Alliance Party and the Liberal Democratic Party have to make more compromises. If traffic lights are formed, then the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party have to show concessions.
The Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party are still walking on thin ice. They are afraid that their talks will fall apart and make the grand coalition government of the Social Democratic Party and the Coalition the only possibility. Their caution stems from the huge differences between the two parties.
German political party research scholar Franz Walter published his “Yellow or Green?” in 2010. The book described the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party from the 1970s to the 1980s as two groups of people who waited and despised each other on campus: the former were ultra-leftists who opposed nuclear power. They wore long hair and wrinkled clothes. Baba’s parka, sitting on the messy sofa in the bar. The latter are more willing to hold parties in the well-decorated basement of their parents’ home. They wear expensive Kashmir scarves and drink expensive wine. They agree with the existing economic system and efficiency-first society.
By the beginning of the 21st century, even if the two parties were not incompatible with fire and water, they had never been at odds. And their voters, although they are also better educated, belong to the higher-income middle class, but have different values. Walter described a typical portrait of voters from both parties: young men among the Liberal Democratic Party voters complained about too little after-tax salary, while for the highly educated women among the Green Party voters, the public was committed to a more balanced lifestyle. Investment in infrastructure and public institutions is more important than substantial tax cuts.
Walter said that this difference and repulsion is the engine of productivity and cannot be completely levelled. Therefore, there is no need to force the Green-Yellow Alliance.
This time, the Green and Yellow, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, are facing an alliance at the federal government level. This is not only their opportunity, but also a historical mission.
The two are not without commonalities. Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party and Lindner of the Liberal Democratic Party, one in their forties and one in their early forties, belong to a relatively young generation. They have not experienced a period of mutual contempt between the two parties. In the past four years, the opposition Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party have experienced some running-in, and both parties have younger voters. According to the polling agency Infratest dimap, according to age, the largest group of voters in the Coalition Party and the Social Democratic Party are those over 70 years old, while the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party have the largest proportion of voters between 18 and 24 years old. The generation that grew up on the Internet voted for the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party for a reason. Both parties advocate modernization, digitalization, and de-bureaucratization.
But in terms of taxation policies, they have great differences. The Green Party advocates tax increases for high-income groups, and the Liberal Democratic Party opposes tax increases. On climate and debt issues, the Green Party advocates taking advantage of zero interest rates, more debt, and more investment. The Liberal Democratic Party advocates non-intervention and reliance on the free market. A few days ago, the Liberal Democratic Party has shown its trump card: it will not increase taxes and will not change its attitude towards the “debt brake.” However, the Liberal Democratic Party knows that everything is subject to failure to negotiate with the Green Party.
An episode appeared in the order of the bilateral talks. Because CSU chairman Markus Söder has other arrangements, the Coalition cannot precede the Social Democratic Party and meet with the Liberal Democratic Party. This has caused uneasiness in the party: Is there anything more important than fighting for the chance to govern NS? Zou De, who was not elected as the prime minister’s candidate of the coalition party, has still been grieved. After the election results came out, Zou De expressed that he must respect the election results, “Schultz is the one who is expected to become the prime minister.” By implication, Raschelt was just making the last needless struggle. Failure to send a signal of unity to the outside world is very detrimental to the Coalition Party. Moreover, after the meeting between the Coalition Party and the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party, the content of the talks leaked from the Coalition Party, which greatly reduced their credibility. There are various indications that the reason why the Coalition Party has not been excluded by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party may simply be that it can also be used as a bargaining weight by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party.
Regardless of whether the government is formed by the Social Democratic Party or the Social Democratic Party, the participation of the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party in governing is almost a certainty. Then, what impact will they have on Sino-German relations? In the general election strategy document, in terms of foreign policy, the Liberal Democratic Party focuses on the economic field. It advocates free trade. Only countries that open their home markets can gain access to the European market. The Liberal Democratic Party attaches importance to dialogue with China and emphasizes the adoption of a clearer and tougher line. The Green Party said that dialogue and cooperation with China are crucial, and it is not limited to the climate field, but takes a strong stance in areas such as human rights.
In short, every political party has different opportunities and goals. The goal of the Social Democratic Party is that Prime Minister Schultz will deliver a speech next year. The Coalition Party can wait for the Social Democratic Party to make mistakes. The Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party are faced with the big problem of forming a mutually compromised but not seemingly compromised combination.
(This article only represents the author’s own views, editor in charge: Yan [email protected])