The situation is similar to before the beginning of the First World War.
How much is it fragile situationbut also the military arrangements in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, were shown by two incidents that took place in the past few days, in which the Chinese and American sides avoided direct confrontation.
According to the US military, a Chinese warship nearly collided with a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait over the weekend, passing within 150 meters of it, a very short distance considering the size of these huge ships. A few days before that, there was another serious incident in the air. A Chinese plane intercepted a US reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea when they nearly collided.
Many analyzes do not rule out the possibility that one of these incidents could lead to a conflict if a plane is shot down or a ship is destroyed. This could result in a reaction from the other side and lead to armed conflicts, which neither side wants.
A missed opportunity
At the same time, the Shangri-La Dialogue Security Forum in Singapore ended as it began, with an atmosphere of sharp disagreement between China and the United States of America. Relaxed greetings and handshakes between the defense ministers of the two countries did not lessen the intensity of disagreements between the two sides inside and outside the forum. During his speech at the forum, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu rebuked the United States and Western countries, asking them to deal with their own issues. The Chinese general made the remarks during his first international appearance as defense minister, and after he declined a request to meet his American counterpart Lloyd Austin while attending the same forum.
China has said that before the meeting, Washington should first lift the sanctions it imposed in 2018 on Li Shangfu, before he became defense minister. However, Washington rejects it due to difficulties of a procedural and practical nature, especially considering that the Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives of the Congress. On the other hand, Austin resented his Chinese counterpart for refusing to meet with him. At the same time, he called for expanded military maneuvers with Washington’s allies, including Japan, Australia and the Philippines, in addition to Indonesia, writes Al Jazeera.
The United States is also increasing the exchange of military technology with India, creating the conditions for interoperability between its military systems and Japan. They are currently building a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with Australia, which China sees as a hostile move against it.
A different view of the situation
Although the aforementioned incidents took place in international waters and open airspace, Beijing believes that US fleets and bombers essentially cannot enter the waters around China and create crises, and then demand that China abide by its rules.
“The best way to prevent this is to keep military ships and aircraft out of our waters and airspace. If you stay close to your territorial waters and airspace, there will be no problems,” Minister Shangfu said. Why is all this happening near China’s sovereign waters and airspace? “Chinese ships and planes never approach the airspace and waters of other countries,” he added.
For its part, the United States is stepping up visits by members of Congress and arms sales to Taiwan, an island China claims as its territory, in what Chinese experts see as a deliberate escalation. According to analyst He Lei, deputy director of the Academy of Military Sciences of the People’s Liberation Army in Beijing, “If there is a conflict in the future, the full responsibility will be on the United States of America,” as she stated in an interview on national radio.
„If the United States of America stops this kind of traffic and passage through these areas, there will be no more incidents“, she added.
After the two incidents, the Chinese military said in a statement that it had sent its navy and air force to monitor ships passing through the Taiwan Strait. “The countries in question are creating problems in the Taiwan Strait region. They are deliberately increasing risks and maliciously undermining regional peace and stability and sending wrong signals to Taiwan,” the statement added.. In contrast, Washington believes that these patrols in the Taiwan Strait are necessary to preserve the principle of freedom of navigation and that Beijing would not consider the strait to be its regional waterway, and that no one else has the right to pass through it.
Joshua Kurlancik, an expert on China issues at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera that he believed what the Chinese military was doing “is just another sign that Beijing has little interest in getting really close to the United States, even though it claims to be seeking it.” If so, there should be some thawing of relations, and that is not happening now”.
Kissinger’s terrifying vision
In an interview with The Economist magazine on the occasion of his 100th birthday, former US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger said that he believed that “the relationship between the United States and China is similar to the classic pre-World War I situation, when neither side considered that there is political space for concessions or offering initiatives”.
Kissinger believes that this means that the two sides stumble on their way and in their calculations for the other side, which could turn into a serious conflict.
On the other hand, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said during an appearance on CNN that while sitting next to President Joe Biden as he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia last year, he saw “ two leaders who are really trying to reach an agreement, despite the fact that we have different points of view and despite the fact that on some grounds we are in a deeply competitive relationship. Both have a desire to lay the foundations for a relationship to manage competition responsibly and ensure that competition does not turn into conflict.”
Sullivan pointed out that, despite his concerns, “he has nothing against strong competition in important areas from the economy to technology. The most important thing is to ensure that competition does not turn into conflict. We believe that there is nothing inevitable about some kind of conflict or cold war between the United States and China. Regarding the Biden administration’s stance on Taiwan, Sullivan emphasized that “the One China policy adopted by Washington and the related Taiwan Relations Act have already succeeded in achieving the practical goal reflected in decades of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” That is why our policy has not changed”.
“This is also why we believe that the One China policy should continue to guarantee that there are no unilateral changes to the status quo on either side, and that we maintain that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait for decades to come,” he added.
(WORLD)