The right wind blows stronger and stronger throughout Europa and not only. The results of the administrative in Italia and victory in Spainwhich led to the fall of the government in the Iberian country, confirm a trend that has been going on for at least a decade in the Old World and which has found lifeblood in the new emergencies which governments have had to face: Covid e war in Ukraine over all. A trend confirmed by the latest rumors regarding the strategy hovering in the head of the president of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber: groped the approach to Conservatives of Giorgia Meloni for a new European coalition that looks to right-wing formations.
If the Italian case is in continuity with the current sentiment of the electorate, the Spanish result puts a huge question mark on the outcome of the next political elections, anticipated in July after the premier’s resignation Pedro Sánchez. Even in a country with an important leftist tradition, the winners at the polls were the People’s Partyresurrected from its ashes after the scandal corruption which in 2018 overwhelmed the then Rajoy governmentand the neo-Francoist party of Vox which, today, is a candidate as the main ally of the Popolari even on a national scale. While on the other side of the fence we saw a PsoeSanchez’s party, unable to intercept the consents of the now deceased citizens and to confirm expectations. A real debacleinstead, for We can who is facing a period of division after the launch of the alternative formation led by the vice president of the government and minister of labour, Yolanda Diaz.
These results, however, are part of a trend that characterizes most European countries and beyond, just look at the strong influence that Donald Trump is still able to exercise in the United States despite the numerous scandals involving him or the umpteenth victory in the Turkish presidential elections for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, representative of the more nationalist and ultra-religious wing in the Anatolian political arena. “This trend continues and I don’t see, at the moment, how it is possible to counter it – he explains to Ilfattoquotidiano.it Andrew Mammon, historian of Europe at the La Sapienza University of Rome – The appeal exercised by the right is still very strong. In an increasingly polarized political context, the general trend is to vote in extremes and this favors those forces which make del populismfrom the demagogy and some ‘easy solutions’ to complex problems a strategy of political communication. All favored by one economic situation slightly improving”.
EMERGENCIES HAVE ADVANTAGED THE RIGHT – In this regard, in addition to the greater ability demonstrated over the years in intercepting the consent of the electorate, right-wing parties have also benefited from major emergencies that governments have had to deal with. In most cases, it was not the right-wing parties who led the European executives during Covid or the conflict in Ukraine which, according to the opposition, exploited their position to grow consensus: “Covid has inevitably influenced – continues Mammone – In Italy, in the most difficult periods, we had the yellow and red government and the semi-technical one of Mario Draghi. In Spain the Socialists, in France Macron and so on. And the right-wing have made a very tough opposition to all those measures deemed necessary, but very restrictive, implemented. This is also related to the fact that we live in the age of post-truthwhere we try to offer simple, easily understandable, even if often not feasible, solutions to complex problems. The most striking example is in the United States, where millions of people are still convinced today that the victory of Joe Biden is the result of a rigged election, as claimed by Trump”.
THE NEW SOCIAL CONTEXT – However, the general situation cannot be explained only with the use of demagoguery or populism. Because there are many cases that can be taken as examples: there are, as mentioned, the Italian and Spanish ones, there are the difficulties of Macron’s party in Francedove Marine Le Pen continues to have a large share of support, and also the new rise in the polls of ultranationalists of Alternative for Germany at the expense of the Greens in Germania. “The European left has gradually lost appeal since the fall of the Berlin wall – explains the historian -, when it detached itself from some totems that had characterized it for decades, such as the social policiesin the name of Blairite-style liberal strategy. It is true that in the latter round also a party considered far-left as We can he suffered a tough defeat, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss his experience. We are living in a period of strong international upheavals, in which taking positions contrary to those dominant in the West can be penalizing. It is also true that, in the past, those who have proposed strongly leftist policies, such as Jeremy Corbyn in United Kingdom, also suffered heavy defeats. So there are two hypotheses: either the left has totally lost credibility, and if this is the case, it will not be easy to win it back, or it has not understood the new social context in which it operates and, therefore, is unable to intercept a slice of the population that historically supported it”. An electorate which, in some cases, has found the answer to its problems, or at least an alternative, in the right-wing formations: “It is not excluded – adds Mammone – that precisely that slice of voters cannot vote again for the left if it manages to offer alternatives closer to their ideals”. Even if the real problem of left-wing parties, he adds, is not so much that of the votes that have moved to the right, “but those that have lost going to broaden the front of theabstentionism. They are those votes that the left, even in Italy, must go and track down ”.
THE MANOVER IN BRUSSELS – Confirming the trend at European level are also the maneuvers underway in the buildings of Bruxelles. Second Republicthe president of the EPP, Manfred Weberwould be ready to offer Giorgia Meloni and other leaders of the conservative wing a place in the large popular family in exchange for support for her candidacy as president of the European Commission in the next 2023 elections. According to what collected by Ilfattoquotidiano.itthis hypothesis is inapplicable, given that Meloni will hardly give up his role as president of Ecrbut Weber’s strategy is more about convince a large section of Conservatives to join the grand coalition that will decide on appointments to key EU posts, together with Socialists, Renew Europe and, indeed, Ppe. In exchange, of course, for a slice of the cake. His is also a personal battle against Ursula von der Leyen who, in the last votes of 2019, deprived him of the seat of Palazzo Berlaymont although the German politician was top candidate of the Populars. “But there’s more – concludes Mammone – Personal aims, if Weber were to achieve his objective, would also cause considerable consequences in the European institutions. For at least a decade, the Bavarian politician has been trying to clear the alliance with the more conservative parties, going against the liberal and pro-European principles that have always characterized the EPP. We recall that, together with Come on Italy and other Popular formations, opposed the expulsion of Viktor Orban from the largest European family, as requested by the countries of the North. But if he achieves his goal in these elections, we will wake up in a different Europe, in the “Fortress Europe” wanted by the nationalist parties, closed in on itself, inaccessible for the immigrantsfar from the Europe of solidarity imagined by the founding fathers”.