Two fundamental things will be decided by the US midterm elections on November 8th. First, the majority in Congress, and therefore the ability for President Biden to continue to carry out his legislative agenda, and make crucial appointments such as judges and ambassadors. Second, the positioning for the 2024 presidential elections, because if Trump-backed candidates win, his ambition to reappear will be strengthened, while locally he will have allies more willing to meet his demands to overturn the outcome of the popular vote, as he had. already tried to do unsuccessfully two years ago. Judging by the polls, Republicans are well placed to hit both goals.
According to Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, the GOP has a 55% chance of taking over the leadership of the Senate, compared to 45% for Democrats. This is because Republican candidates have gained a lot of ground in recent weeks, nullifying or reducing the advantage of opponents in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. According to the Cook Political Report, three seats now held by Democrats are at risk, namely those of Kelly in Arizona, Warnock in Georgia and Cortez Masto in Nevada. The Republicans instead risk in Wisconsin with Senator Johnson, and in the seat without “incumbent” in Pennsylvania, where, however, their candidate Oz has almost canceled, and according to some polls already overturned, the advantage of rival Fetterman. By taking back the Senate, the GOP could reject any nomination made by Biden that needs parliamentary confirmation, starting with the judges.
The Chamber, on the other hand, seems to have already gone. Republicans have a distinct advantage in the polls, and therefore it is highly possible that their leader Kevin McCarthy will take over from Speaker Pelosi. This means that the legislative agenda of the Democrats (in America there is an almost perfect bicameralism) will be paralyzed, while it becomes very likely that the GOP will launch congressional inquiries against Biden, which could also lead to his impeachment.
State elections are also crucial, not only because the governors will decide, but also because they will assign a series of seats from which the electoral machine is controlled, such as those of the secretaries of state. In 2020, some of these officials had opposed Trump’s demands to overturn the result in his favor, even though they were Republicans. After next Tuesday’s midterm, Donald will have many more allies willing to violate democratic rules in order to bring him back to the White House.
This shift of the electorate towards the Republicans occurred mainly for two reasons. First, inflation above 8% has alienated many voters from the incumbent government; second, the issues that the Democrats were aiming at to curb the avalanche, such as the Supreme Court ruling against abortion, do not seem to have motivated voters enough to reject the GOP.
What midterm elections are and how they work
The “mid-term” elections are held in the middle of the presidential term, two years after the inauguration: and for this reason they are considered a sort of judgment on the policies and on the agenda of the government in office. On November 8, about 168 million Americans will be called to the polls (although many, following different rules depending on the state, will have already taken advantage of the so-called “early vote”, by mail or in person in specially open polling stations). Voters vote to completely renew the 435 seats in the Chamber (where members remain in office for 2 years) and a third in the Senate (where the office lasts for 6 years): that is 35 members. The Senate is made up of two senators per state, for a total of 100.
Currently the majority is in the hands of dem, but of measure. When necessary, the 50 senators of the donkey party were joined by that of vice president Kamala Harris, who presides over it with the right to vote. The representatives of the Chamber are elected in proportion to the population of the various constituencies. A calculation that has long been questioned because it is based on the controversial system known as “gerrymandering” – named after the governor of Massachusetts Elbridge Gerry who adopted it at the beginning of the nineteenth century – whereby the boundaries of the colleges are often drawn in an arbitrary and tortuous manner by those who govern the state, to benefit certain candidates. The chamber currently has 221 Democrats, 212 Republicans, and has two vacant seats (due to the death of Indiana Republican Jackie Walorski and the resignation of dem Charlie Crist who runs to Florida for governor). Yes, because on November 8 there is also a vote to renew the posts of governor in 36 states, numerous mayors and other state posts. Historically, in the midterm vote, the president’s party loses: on average about 29 seats. Polls already say the dem will be defeated in the House. For the Senate it will go head to head in at least 6 states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada. Overall, the Democrats must defend 14 seats, the Republicans 21. If the latter win they will certainly block the agenda of the incumbent President Joe Biden and some say they will even try to impeach him using the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan as an excuse. or even the complex situation of immigrants on the southern border. Biden will still be in trouble even if he loses “only” the Chamber: the deputies will still be able to block a large part of his program, forcing him into the position of the “lame duck”, the lame duck.
Themes that will weigh on the vote
Winning the midterm elections is historically difficult for the White House chief’s party, because voters generally want to punish him after two years of government or otherwise rebalance powers, but it becomes nearly impossible when you have inflation above 8% and people find it hard to put food on the table or fill up the tank in the car. A few days ago, during a rally in Los Angeles, Senator Sanders defended the Democrats as follows: «Republicans talk a lot about inflation, but can you explain to me how Biden is responsible for the 10% price increase in Great Britain? And how can I be guilty of 11% inflation in Europe? In reality it is a global phenomenon, caused by Covid, the supply chain crisis, and the horrendous war unleashed by Putin in Ukraine. Meanwhile, however, the CEOs of American companies earn 400 times more than employees, Exxon’s profits increased by 280% in the second quarter of the year, and the same goes for food companies. They use the crisis to feed their greed ». Indeed, the blame should fall more on the Federal Reserve, which has a mandate to keep prices low, but first underestimated inflation as a passing phenomenon, and now risks pushing the US into recession with an exaggerated response. But convincing the voters that the government has no responsibility is impossible, also because some democratic economists like Larry Summers have pointed the finger at the too generous subsidies given in response to Covid, and so the increase in prices has ended up bypassing abortion. as a theme that ignites and mobilizes voters.
Since the Supreme Court overturned the Roe vs. Wade, which since 1973 guaranteed the federal right to terminate pregnancy, already 13 states have in fact made it impossible to resort to abortion (Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin). And in at least five others (Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Utah, North Carolina) it is severely restricted, often allowing the procedure only until fetal heart activity is detected, around six weeks of pregnancy – when, that is, often women they don’t even know they’re pregnant. Also for this reason, in key states such as Pennsylvania and Kansas, the number of women who signed up for the vote has increased to the point of talking about the real “Pink Wave”. And many Republican voters have also spoken out against the tightening of the rules. However, after the summer, support (or opposition) to abortion motivates the voters less: only 13 per cent and above all among those who already voted Democrat (56 per cent). As the vote approaches, many strategists even say that the dem candidates have focused too much on the issue, forgetting the much hottest one in the economy, ending up losing ground. Responding to a recent USA Today / Suffolk University survey, when asked what was more important, inflation or abortion, respondents largely opted for the former in 31 percent of cases.
Crime certainly increased in 2020, at the height of the lockdown, when homicides rose by 30 percent and assaults by 11.7. In 2021, the percentages fell by about 5 percent overall, but we have not returned to pre-pandemic numbers. Although the figures for the current year are not yet public, the perception of voters is that they are less confident than two years ago. The Republicans, who already during the presidency of Donald Trump dusted off the famous slogan of Richard Nixon “Law and Order”, law and order, becoming champions of it, accuse the Democrats of too soft policies and of having asked for the definition of the police (on the wave of protests following the violent death of African American George Floyd). And now they even use the hammer attack on the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to support their thesis. A Gallup poll finds that 53 percent put safety at the top of their fears. Such sentiment has already prompted voters in a liberal city like San Francisco, California, not to reconfirm District Attorney Chesa Boudin, whose approach was considered too lenient towards criminals. The anti-crime message could harm the dem even in upstate New York: where Democratic governor Kathy Hochul finds herself hounded by rival Lee Zeldin. To every question posed to him in the debate of 25 October, this has always responded by reiterating his concerns about the increase in crime.
Immigration is the theme that launched Trump’s race to the White House, with the mirage of building a wall along the border with Mexico, and remains one of the central themes for Republicans, not only in order to win the midterm elections, but also to take back the presidency in 2024.
US Customs and Border Protection has revealed that in the past 12 months it has arrested 2.3 million migrants trying to cross the southern border. The all-time record, with an increase of 37% compared to 2021, or 1.7 million more people. But it was also the deadliest year, with over 800 deaths trying to enter the US, including drowning in the Rio Grande and heatstroke. The Republicans blame Biden, because he would send the signal that the doors were open, and in particular to Vice President Kamala Harris, who is in charge of the dossier but has not done anything to resolve it. The head of the White House, in response, authorized the completion of some sectors of the wall, especially in the Yuma region of Arizona, and used measures adopted by Trump under the guise of Covid to send Venezuelans back.
The truth is that the emergency exists, but no one works in good faith to solve it. The US needs immigrants, because otherwise the economy is paralyzed, but they do not have an adequate system to select and admit them. The Democrats speak of open borders and the Republicans of walls, but it is the GOP that takes advantage of the crisis on the electoral level, because it proposes policies that will also be ineffective and populist, but they speak to the stomachs of millions of Americans.
Challenges