daily economic news
2022-07-31 17:35:02
◎In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and below the threshold.
◎The service industry continued to recover in July. In July, the service industry business activity index was 52.8 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to remain in the expansion range.
Every reporter Li Keyu Every editor Chen Xing
On July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was below the critical point, and the level of manufacturing prosperity declined.
In addition, the data also showed that in July, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 53.8% and 52.5%, respectively, down 0.9 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and were in the expansion range for two consecutive months.
The “Daily Economic News” reporter noticed that the PMI data fell again after rising for two consecutive months.
The July PMI was 49.0%, falling to a contractionary range Image source: National Bureau of Statistics
Prosperity of high-energy-consuming industries declines
In July, the PMI entered a contraction zone below 50%.
To this,Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician, Service Industry Survey Center, National Bureau of StatisticsAccording to the analysis, in July, due to factors such as the traditional production off-season, insufficient market demand release, and the decline in the prosperity of high-energy-consuming industries, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%.
Zhao Wei, Chief Economist of Sinolink SecuritiesThrough WeChat’s detailed analysis of the “Daily Economic News” reporter, PMI data in July showed that high energy-consuming industries were significantly dragged down, or partially affected by high temperature and other weather. Among the major industries, the PMI of high-energy-consuming industries such as textiles, petroleum and coal processing, and black smelting continued to be in the contraction range, which was one of the main factors for the decline of PMI; while the prosperity of agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, special equipment, transportation equipment and other industries higher.
Regarding the PMI performance of enterprises of different sizes,Zhang Aoping, Dean of Incremental Research InstituteThrough WeChat’s analysis of the “Daily Economic News” reporter, from the perspective of the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises, in July, large and medium-sized enterprises fell to the contraction zone, while small enterprises were still in the contraction zone. The PMI of large enterprises was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.5%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and it has continued to shrink since the beginning of this year. interval.
Among them, compared with large and medium-sized enterprises, the production and operation pressure of small enterprises is greater, and the development expectations continue to be weaker, which is also the key “pain point” for the current steady economic growth.
The service industry continued to recover in July
At the same time, the “Daily Economic News” reporter also noticed that there are many positive signals in the PMI data in July.
Yang Chang, Chief Economist, Institute of Public Policy and Governance, Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsIn an interview with the “Daily Economic News” reporter’s WeChat, he pointed out that in the July PMI sub-item, the new orders index was 48.5% (the previous value was 50.4%), down 1.9 percentage points. The new export order index was 47.4% (the previous value was 49.5%), down 2.1 percentage points; the difference between the new order index and the new export order index was 1.1 percentage points (the previous value was 0.9 percentage points). On the whole, the data reflects that, affected by the demand side, especially external demand, short-term fluctuations have occurred on the production side, but domestic demand has increased slightly.
Zhao Qinghe combined data analysis and said that the service industry continued to recover in July. In July, the service industry business activity index was 52.8%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to remain in the expansion range, indicating that the service industry continued to recover driven by a series of policy measures to stabilize growth and promote consumption. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the business activity index of 16 industries is in the expansion range, among which industries such as air transport, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facility management are higher than 60.0%. The previously suppressed consumer demand continues to release, and related industries Business volume continued to recover rapidly.
From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 58.8%, which is still in a relatively high economic range. The business activity expectation index of all industries surveyed has been above the critical point for two consecutive months, and the confidence of service industry companies has generally recovered.
Regarding the future trend of PMI, Zhang Aoping analyzed to the “Daily Economic News” reporter that at present, the economy is in a critical window for stabilization and recovery. In July, the PMI fell back to the contraction range again, reflecting the weak foundation for economic recovery, the weak momentum of recovery, and the lack of confidence in the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Therefore, under the premise of being reasonable and appropriate, macro-fiscal and monetary policies will not be eager to change, but will be more precise and powerful, and will take a more active role in expanding effective demand. The focus of follow-up policy operations should be changed from loose money to loose credit, and the focus of the current loose credit is the use of currency by the private sector, that is, the financing and development of private enterprises and the consumption of household loans.
Source of cover image: Photo Network-500719458