November 16, 2022 11:03
This is what we are referring to when we talk about the catastrophic scenarios imagined since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: a missile hitting the territory of a NATO country. And that is what happened on the evening of November 15 in Przewodów, a Polish village ten kilometers from the border with Ukraine. It is a fact that is unprecedented, not only since the beginning of this war, but also in history: even at the height of East-West tensions, no NATO territory had ever been affected.
Concern is very strong, but according to the information available, it does not appear that this is an action by Moscow to strike Polish territory, which would lead to an escalation. The NATO countries met today on the basis of article 4 of the Atlantic charter, which provides for consultations; it is not Article 5 which guarantees the automatic solidarity of the other member countries in the event of an attack on one of them.
So there will be a backlash, one way or another, if only to reassert the reality of the deterrence guaranteed by the alliance; but the United States and its allies will be careful not to go too far. But the warning is strong: it shows how escalations and therefore the expansion of war can begin.
Putin’s voluntary absence from Bali was already a harbinger of this isolation
Meanwhile, an important page in the history of the war in Ukraine was written on November 14 between Bali and Kiev, between the tropical island where the G20 summit is underway and the Ukrainian cities once again hit by a rain of Russian missiles. A day that began with Volodymyr Zelenskyj’s declaration that it was “time to put an end to the war”, and ended with Moscow’s response launched from above.
In Bali, Putin found himself more isolated than he has ever been since he made the fateful decision to invade Ukraine on February 24. His voluntary absence from this summit in which he would, in principle, in any case have several friendly countries, was already a harbinger of this Russian isolation.
China and India, which have so far refused to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, distanced themselves from it in Bali, and we will see how this is expressed in today’s final summit statement.
At stake at the G20, after nine months of conflict, is the possibility of understanding whether the southern countries will remain anchored to their neutrality, benevolent towards Russia and hostile towards the West. Apparently Putin’s defeats are convincing his friends that we must avoid sinking with Moscow.
As regards Zelenskyj’s negotiating offer, the Russian response came in two stages: initially Sergej Lavrov, Russian foreign minister who represents Putin in Bali, defined the conditions set by the Ukrainian president as “unrealistic”.
It must be admitted that Zelenskyj has set peace conditions that appear to be those of a Russian capitulation: withdrawal of troops from Moscow, return to Ukrainian territorial integrity and war reparations, therefore no compromise that would allow the Russian army to regroup.
Zelenskyj wanted to demonstrate, at the request of the Americans, that he was open to negotiations. But he knows that his army and its people are unwilling to give up anything after what Ukraine has been suffering for nine months. Yesterday’s hundred missiles won’t change his mind; especially after what happened in Poland.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)