In the Italian political landscape the changes never end. It is well known. Ours is a political system that has not yet found its equilibrium point after the earthquake generated by the arrival on the scene of the M5s. But it is also true that there is no lack of elements of continuity. One of these is the distribution of political preferences at the territorial level. This is confirmed by the Winpoll-Il Sole 24 Ore survey dedicated to this very topic. The sample size on which the survey is based allows us to disaggregate voting intentions by large geographical areas.
The result is that Italy is still roughly divided into three parts that continue to have distinctive characteristics, even if not as marked as in the past.
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The center-right dominates the North
The North continues to be the dominion of the center-right. The weakness of the center left in this area, especially in the North East, is a historical fact. And it continues to be the real reason for his difficulty in governing the country. In the Northern regions throughout the Second Republic, the center-right has always been the majority side. Once Berlusconi drove it. Today the leadership has moved on to Salvini’s League, which with its 28.8% surpasses the Pd by ten points. All in all, the center-right is over 50%. It’s back to pre-M5s levels, albeit with a different configuration.
The center-left continues not to be competitive even with the addition of the M5s, which from the peak of 23.7% in 2018 is now around 10.2%. In this area, the change today is represented by Fdi which goes from 5.9% of Europeans to 15.7%. National Alliance, in its heyday, had never managed to go beyond 11% in this part of the country. The League remains far away, but the Democratic Party does not.
The red zone in Central Italy is still decreasing
In the four regions of the former red zone, the center-left is still in the lead with the Democratic Party estimated at 24.3%, but its leadership has eroded in recent years. Suffice it to say that before the political earthquake of 2013, the distance between the two poles at the time was more than ten points. Today it has halved. Unlike what happened in the North, where the Democratic Party did not grow, both Lega and Fdi have grown a lot here. The supremacy of the center-left in this area has long been in danger, as evidenced by the numerous cases of municipal and regional elections lost by the Democratic Party and allies.