Expert: China needs to calculate some economic accounts
[Epoch Times October 20, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Liu Yi comprehensive report) On October 19, Bank of America lowered its forecast for China’s economic growth again, lowering the real GDP growth rate for this year from The reduction from 8.0% to 7.7% was because the Central Bank of the Communist Party of China delayed the introduction of important policy support measures after the energy crisis hit China’s huge industrial sector.
News from Reuters and Hong Kong Economic Times show that while the Bank of America is lowering the mainland’s GDP growth this year, it has also reduced its 2022 GDP forecast from 5.3% to 4.0%. It is expected that China’s economic growth will stabilize at a steady rate by 2023. 5.3%, a decrease from the previous forecast of 5.8%.
This is already the second time the Bank of America has lowered mainland GDP growth in two months.
On September 21, the Bank of America lowered its expectations for China’s economic growth in the next three years. At that time, the GDP growth forecast for this year was lowered from 8.3% to 8.0%, the forecast for 2022 was lowered from 6.2% to 5.3%, and the forecast for 2023 was lowered from 6.0% to 5.8%.
UBS, another international investment bank, also lowered its GDP growth forecast for the mainland in 2021 from 8.2% to 7.6%.
This is because the Chinese Communist Party announced on October 18 that GDP growth in the third quarter of this year was 4.9% year-on-year, the lowest in four quarters. The data has aroused concerns about the Chinese economy, and believe that the downward pressure on the Chinese economy may be greater than expected.
Another Reuters article on the 19th stated that whether it is the energy supply meeting held by the Development and Reform Commission of the Communist Party of China after the recent electricity price reform, or the quarterly data release meeting of the Bureau of Statistics, in many functional department meetings discussing China’s energy shortage, the analysis of energy During the time of tension and economic downturn, the man-made reasons related to the dual control of energy consumption and sports emission reduction were not mentioned, ignoring the harm to the entity economy caused by the introduction of the “strict and loose” regulatory policies.
The report quoted an expert who did not want to be named as saying at an internal seminar that supervision is needed, but what kind of supervision is also worth discussing. “The result of campaign-style policies is greater uncertainty. This is particularly evident this year.”
An expert from a research institution affiliated to the National Development and Reform Commission of the Communist Party of China said: “China should calculate some economic accounts. The high cost has external factors, but there are also systemic factors, such as the marketization of manufacturing. Supporting, energy, financial and land reforms are not in place, and the system cost is very high.”
The article stated that the mainland’s campaign to reduce emissions was also one of the reasons why China’s economy fell far short of expectations in the third quarter.
He Keng, who served as the vice chairman of the Finance and Economics Committee of the National People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China, predicts that China’s GDP growth rate may fall below 4% in the fourth quarter because it is difficult to recover the basic driving force of economic growth-the level of household consumption. It may be more difficult next year, or there will be economic stagflation.
Editor in charge: Li Muen#
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