Source: Jintou.com
According to the survey data of SunSirs, by 2022thermal coalThe overall trend is oscillating. In the first half of 2022, China will continue to promote the work of increasing coal production and ensuring supply to ensure the stability of domestic electricity consumption. We will do our best to increase coal production and ensure supply, so 2022 will also be a year when thermal coal prices fluctuate.
In January, the domestic thermal coal market as a whole operated steadily and moderately strong, mainly due to the main reason for ensuring safety and the limited increase in coal production, showing a relatively strong market as a whole. Coal prices at ports rose first and then stabilized, while coal prices at origins rose or fell slightly. As the later Spring Festival approached the completion of downstream preparations, the supply and demand were both weak, and the market remained stable.
In early February, mines resumed production one after another after the Spring Festival. Affected by policies, coal prices tended to go down. In terms of downstream power plants, there were fewer salable resources in the market, and spot resources were tight. However, affected by the policies, the port sentiment was weak and the actual transactions were few. . In the middle of the month, thermal coal prices were weak, and coal mines resumed production one after another. Affected by policies, coal prices have returned to a reasonable range, and coal-hauling vehicles at mines have increased; downstream power plants continue to decline in port market quotations, and downstream terminals purchase on demand, mainly on the sidelines .
In March, coal mines mostly maintained normal production. Due to the impact of public health incidents, the control of mining areas was relatively strict, and the increase in coal production was limited. Downstream enterprises such as electric power and chemical industry have released demand, and their purchasing enthusiasm is high, so the price is raised.
Coal production in major producing areas was generally stable in April, but because April is the off-season, so we wait and see the operation market, market transactions are average, state-owned large mines mainly rely on long-term coordinated transportation; downstream power plants in the port market now rely on long-term coordination and guarantee coal supply Mainly, downstream terminals purchase on demand, trading is deadlocked, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. Traders have a strong sentiment to stand up for prices, but the downstream acceptance is not high.
The thermal coal market remained stalemate in May, and coal mines basically maintained a balance of production and sales; in terms of downstream power plants, the port market is now dominated by long-term coalition and guaranteed supply coal, and downstream terminals purchase on demand, with limited transactions and strong wait-and-see sentiment. The demand of non-electric users such as chemical industry is stable.
Thermal coal prices rose first and then fell in June as a whole. Coal production in major producing areas has recently been tightened due to safety production. However, most coal mines are actively cashing in on coal used by medium and long-term cooperatives and coal used by large households. There are few salable resources in the market. Now the overall wait and see Sentiment is the main factor; in the downstream port market, the daily terminal consumption has picked up recently, but the purchase price is still under pressure, the quotations of traders are firm, and the quotations rise slightly. The overall transportation is still dominated by long-term coal. In June, thermal coal prices showed a low peak season as a whole.
In July, the price of thermal coal declined as a whole. The coal mines in the main producing areas have maintained normal production recently. Some coal mines have experienced a slight decline in production due to coal management bills, and most of the coal mines are mainly cashing in long-term coal, so the market coal resources are relatively tight; the downstream port market this month Weak operation, although the daily consumption of terminals in high temperature weather has picked up, the overall transportation of power plants is still dominated by long-term coal. The demand for coal in the market has not increased significantly, and the wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong.
In August, the price of thermal coal as a whole fell first and then rose. In terms of production areas at the beginning of the month, because coal management bills were relatively sufficient at the beginning of the month, most coal mines were in normal production, but most of them actively cashed in on long-term coal. Downstream users pull and transport in an orderly manner, and there is basically no inventory in coal mines. Non-electricity purchases such as downstream chemicals have mostly maintained rigid demand purchases in the near future. In terms of production areas at the end of the month, most of the coal mines are in normal production, the sales situation is good, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is good. The downstream port market is still dominated by replenishment of Changxie coal, and the extension of Changxie coal is more active. Traders are highly motivated to raise prices, but the downstream still maintains just-needed purchases, and the market transactions are average.
In September, the price of thermal coal was generally strong. In terms of production areas, due to the impact of the epidemic and safety production cuts, coal mines are now dominated by Changxi Coal, and the supply of goods in the market is still relatively tight. The reduction in supply and the fair trading atmosphere in the market have strong support for coal prices. In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly on the strong side. Downstream non-power demand is acceptable. In addition, because of the National Day holiday, companies are actively stocking up, and coal supply is in short supply. In addition, the maintenance of the Daqin Line still strongly supports the rise in coal prices.
In October, the price of thermal coal was generally strong. In terms of production areas, due to the impact of the epidemic and safety production cuts, coal mines are now dominated by Changxie coal, and the supply of goods in the market is still relatively tight. The reduction in supply and the fair trading atmosphere in the market have strong support for coal prices. In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly on the strong side. The Daqin Line was overhauled, and the quantity of coal entering various ports decreased. The quotations of traders are relatively firm, and the willingness to ship is relatively strong. However, downstream power plants mainly purchase on demand, with a wait-and-see mentality.
In November, the price of thermal coal was generally weak. In terms of production areas, due to the impact of the epidemic and safety production cuts, coal mines mostly kept Changxie coal. In addition, coal prices fell as a whole, with a drop of 50-100 yuan/ton, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average. And affected by public health time, it is more difficult to ship coal, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. In terms of downstream ports, the quotations of traders weakened, and they mainly took a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the Daqin line is still under maintenance, and the shipment volume is still relatively limited. Downstream buyers are generally motivated to purchase goods, with few transactions and a general acceptance of high prices. The daily consumption of the power plant is stable and the safety stock is maintained.
In December, the price of thermal coal was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was general. Most of the coal mines in the main producing areas mainly rely on the guaranteed supply of long-term cooperative coal, and with the large-scale coal inspection in winter, the overall supply of coal is limited. The overall market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the downstream mostly maintains rigid demand purchases, while some coal mines ship in general.
SunSirs analysts believe that: in terms of production areas, thermal coal is now more focused on safety, and the increase in coal is limited. In terms of downstream ports, as the Spring Festival approached, downstream thermal coal was still mainly on the sidelines, power plants were generally less active in purchasing, and transactions were relatively weak. It is estimated that thermal coal prices will mainly consolidate in the later stage. However, as the temperature rises after the year, downstream construction starts, and demand increases, there is still demand for thermal coal, and the price of thermal coal may rise somewhat. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, there are currently about 50 million tons of coal that can be dispatched by the government, which is currently stable at a high level of about 175 million tons, and the available days have reached 22 days, which can effectively meet the needs of peak shaving. Considering the comprehensive forecast on the supply side, there may be little upward space for thermal coal prices, depending on the downstream market demand.
(Article source: SunSir)
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP