guideIt is expected that the valuation of the industry will be stable in 2023, and the sector still needs to return to the main line of performance growth. It is recommended to grasp the principle of certainty. We choose four main lines of food and beverage trading strategies in 2023: one is to choose varieties with stable and upward fundamentals, and lay out leading liquor brands; Variety of falling costs. The fourth is to pay attention to thematic investment opportunities, such as investment opportunities brought about by rural revitalization under the background of common prosperity.
Market performance: Food and beverages have underperformed the market since the beginning of the year, mainly due to the decline in valuation
From January to November 2022, the food and beverage sector fell by 22.8%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 9.8pct, ranking low among the first-tier sub-sectors. In terms of molecular industries, wine stands out (+11.6%), the only sector in the food and beverage sector that has achieved positive returns. Beer (-3.6%) also fell less. Liquor (-24.9%) and dairy products (-27.6%) underperformed the food and beverage sector. From the perspective of the growth rate, the decline in stock prices is mainly due to the decline in valuation: the PE of food and beverage from January to November in 2022 has dropped by 36.1% compared with the end of 2021, and the net profit in 2022 is expected to increase by 17.2%. .
Quantitative judgment: the economy is still affected, and the demand curve is relatively flat
From a macro perspective, the epidemic will slowly recover from 2021, and the epidemic will spread in many places in 2022, which will have a greater impact on the economy. Moreover, the epidemic is still ongoing, and it has become an industry consensus that the economy will run at a low speed throughout the year. In the first three quarters of 2022, GDP will increase by 3.0%, which is the lowest growth rate since 2021. At the same time, the social zero data in September continued to run at a low speed (2.3%), and the cumulative growth rate from January to September was 0.7%, and it is expected that the fourth quarter will also be at a low position. Overall, due to the impact of the epidemic, the macroeconomic environment has not yet shown strong growth, and the social zero data is also operating in a weak range.
2022 Rhythm Review: The epidemic is the biggest variable, showing a slowdown throughout the year
(1) From the perspective of the demand side, the first quarter is the traditional peak season for liquor consumption. During the Spring Festival, the national epidemic situation is well controlled, and liquor payments are normally paid. In the second quarter, the epidemic spread in East China, and the sales of liquor were disturbed by the epidemic. Judging from the report, the second quarter also showed pressure. In the third quarter, during the mid-autumn and National Day peak seasons, although there were also impacts from the epidemic, the payment collection end of the enterprise was carried out normally, and the reports performed well, and more pressure was reflected on the channel end.
(2) During the year, most mass-market products are faced with the problem of shrinking demand, and inventory has become a regulator for manufacturers to balance shipments and dynamic sales at this time. In the second quarter, under the low base effect, the company’s performance was generally good. In the middle of the year, enterprises considered completing the quarterly target and chose to increase inventory to complete the shipment task; in the third quarter, some companies slowed down their growth. We judge that the current industry demand is close to the bottom. Considering the low base effect, looking forward to 2023, the growth rate of mass products may be better.
The main line of investment: continue the main line of consumption recovery and grasp the principle of certainty
Looking forward to 2023, the main line of investment in food and beverage is the recovery of consumption. Affected by the epidemic, the economy will still run at a low level in 2022. After consumption weakens, from a fundamental point of view, we judge that the industry is already in the process of bottoming out. In the second quarter, many markets mainly in East China were affected by the epidemic to varying degrees, mainly reflected in the limited demand for catering and logistics supply. In the third quarter, the epidemic was still spreading in many regions, and the peak season of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was affected by the epidemic. Against the background that the country pays more attention to the epidemic, we believe that the impact of the epidemic on consumption will be maximized within this year, and most sub-sectors should be in the process of recovery and improvement in 2023; Reasonable layout of the range, the valuation of some companies has been lower than the average level in recent years. Assuming that there are no significant changes in existing policies, it is expected that the industry’s valuation will be stable in 2023, and the sector still needs to return to the main line of performance growth. It is recommended to grasp the principle of certainty. We choose four main lines of food and beverage trading strategies in 2023: one is to choose varieties with stable and upward fundamentals, and lay out leading liquor brands; Variety of falling costs. The fourth is to pay attention to thematic investment opportunities, such as investment opportunities brought about by rural revitalization under the background of common prosperity.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, lower-than-expected consumption recovery, and raw material price fluctuations.
(Source: Kaiyuan Securities)
Special offer for fans: choose one of the five popular products of Haostock APP and experience it for five days! Welcome to download experience!