Our reporter Meng Ke
On November 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released a series of economic data such as the added value of industries above designated size, total retail sales of social consumer goods, and national fixed asset investment in October.
Fu Linghui, director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that my country’s economy continued to recover in October, production demand continued to recover, employment prices remained stable, new kinetic energy savings increased, and people’s livelihood was guaranteed. Powerful and effective, development resilience continues to be demonstrated.
First, fixed asset investment grew steadily. From January to October, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.8% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.12% in October.
In this regard, Fu Linghui said, “From the perspective of investment, the policy of stabilizing investment continues to increase, and major projects are accelerated, which is conducive to the stable growth of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment, and is also conducive to the effective play of the key role of investment.”
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that infrastructure investment is expected to further accelerate before the end of the year, and manufacturing investment is more resilient, which can effectively hedge the impact of the decline in real estate investment. In the next two months, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will resume a slight upward trend.
Second, the consumer market generally maintains a recovery growth trend. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4,027.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Judging from the cumulative situation of the previous 10 months, from January to October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 36,057.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%.
“From the perspective of consumption, despite the impact of the epidemic, the total retail sales of consumer goods in October fell by 0.5% year-on-year, but basic living consumption continued to grow, and online retail sales grew rapidly. As the epidemic gradually came under control, the effect of stabilizing consumption policies gradually emerged. It will gradually improve.” Fu Linghui said.
Again, the continued industrial recovery has not changed. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.0% year-on-year in real terms (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting the price factor). From a month-on-month perspective, in October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 0.33% from the previous month. From January to October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year.
Fu Linghui said that the growth rate of industries above designated size slowed down in October, but overall, the continued industrial recovery has not changed, showing strong resilience.
Since the fourth quarter, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have introduced a series of policy measures to stabilize the economy to promote economic stability and improvement. Looking forward to the future, Luo Huanjie, a senior macro researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said that the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic development will be more precise, which will help improve the expectations of market players. At the same time, as the financing environment for real estate companies continues to improve, the real estate market has the conditions to stabilize. On the whole, the recovery of various economic data in November will be accelerated.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, predicts that the pace of recovery in domestic demand will accelerate in the fourth quarter, mainly because the country is actively optimizing epidemic prevention measures and more effectively coordinating epidemic prevention and economic recovery. At the same time, the previous package of relief and growth stabilization policies and measures will be further effective, and the pace of recovery in consumption and investment is expected to gradually accelerate.
[Responsible editor: Cao Jing]