Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 31. Question: The recovery of manufacturing PMI shows that the economy has maintained a momentum of recovery and development
Xinhua News Agency reporter Wei Yukun
According to data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on August 31, in August, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. This leading indicator shows that my country’s economy is still recovering and developing.
“In August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 12 industries’ PMI increased from the previous month, and the prosperity level of most industries improved.” Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics Say.
Statistics show that the production and demand index is flat and up. In August, the production index was 49.8%, the same as the previous month, and the new orders index was 49.2%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous month. However, both indices continued to be in contractionary territory, indicating that the recovery of manufacturing production and demand still needs to be strengthened.
From the perspective of the industry, in August, driven by factors such as the approaching of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the production and demand indexes of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and beverages, refined tea and other industries all rose to above 55% in a relatively high boom range. Stocking; the production and demand indices of textile, chemical raw materials and chemical products, non-metallic mineral products and other industries are all lower than 45%, and the production and demand of enterprises have dropped significantly.
The price index recovered from a low level. In August, the purchasing price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 44.3 percent and 44.5 percent, respectively, up 3.9 and 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline in the overall level of manufacturing market prices narrowed. The survey results show that the proportion of enterprises reporting high raw material costs this month was 48.4%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, and was lower than 50% for the first time this year, indicating that the cost pressure of enterprises has eased.
Wen Tao, an expert from China Logistics Information Center, said that from the perspective of the index trend, the average value of the purchase price index and the ex-factory price index in the first half of the year were 59.1% and 52% respectively. From July to August, the purchase price index and the ex-factory price index were both continuous. Running below 45%, significantly lower than the average for the first half of the year.
In addition, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises has rebounded. In August, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and rose to the expansion range. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the production and operation pressure of small enterprises was relatively large.
It is worth noting that some key industries continued to expand. In August, with the implementation of various policies and measures to promote consumption, the PMI of the consumer goods industry rose to 52.3%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month. The PMIs of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing were 50.9% and 50.6%, respectively, down 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and still higher than the critical point. The industry continued to expand, but at a slower pace.
The non-manufacturing business activity index continued to expand. In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.6 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and still higher than the threshold. The non-manufacturing industry maintained a recovery expansion for three consecutive months.
Zhao Qinghe said that in August, due to factors such as the epidemic and high temperature weather, the business activity index of the service industry dropped to 51.9%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, but higher than the critical point. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 57.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, and still in a relatively high economic range. Among them, the business activities of retail, railway transportation, postal services, Internet software and information technology services, currency and financial services and other industries The expectation index is all in the high prosperity range of more than 60%, and the company’s expectation is relatively optimistic.
The construction industry maintained rapid expansion. In August, the business activity index of the construction industry was 56.5%, 2.7 percentage points lower than the previous month, still in a relatively high economic range, and the production activities of the construction industry continued to expand. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of civil engineering and construction industry was 57.1%, and the new order index and business activity expectation index rose to 55.5% and 64.1% respectively, indicating that the construction of infrastructure projects has maintained a relatively fast construction process, and market demand continued to rebound. Expectations for the near-term development are positive.
The national economic operation data in July showed that the economy continued to recover and develop, but the foundation for recovery still needed to be consolidated. The executive meeting of the State Council held on August 24 made it clear that, while implementing the package of policies to stabilize the economy, 19 consecutive policies should be implemented to form a combined effect, promote the economy to stabilize and improve, maintain operation within a reasonable range, and strive for the best results. In this regard, some foreign media such as the US “Forbes” magazine published an article saying that “the medium and long-term prospects of the Chinese economy are still very good” by taking active measures to support the rapid economic recovery.
“In general, in the face of adverse factors such as the epidemic and high temperature, all regions and departments have conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and enterprises have responded actively, and my country’s economy has maintained a momentum of recovery and development.” Zhao Qinghe said.