The expensive-fuels stand up and the Draghi government prepares his move to calm costs, but the turnaround in the price of oil these days could already offer an important assist for the pockets of motorists.
The decree to reduce the price of fuels should come out this week, as stated by the Minister of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies, Stefano Patuanelli. The outlines of the measures that will be adopted are not yet defined, with the possibility of a cut in excise duties. The government could take advantage of the extra VAT revenue on fuels in recent months and some sources speak of a cut of 15 cents per liter, an amount similar to that decided by France (temporary measure of 4 months).
Oil on the nose, what to expect now for gasoline and diesel prices?
While waiting to see the measures that will be taken, in the last two days there has been a sudden turnaround in oil prices. The prices of Brent, the European crude oil benchmark, are reported today under the 100 dollars a barrel wall, coming to mark a drop of more than $ 40 from the peaks of $ 139 last week, to be exact on March 7. Price retreat dictated by a number of factors, first of all the new Chinese lockdowns and the hopes linked to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
In essence, the price of oil has set the clock back two weeks, returning to the levels it was at at the end of February. How long will gasoline prices take to do the same? Today, the first signs of a return in prices arrived: Eni has in fact cut the recommended prices of gasoline and diesel by 5 cents after yesterday the price of Brent fell by about 5%. Tomorrow another downward revision should materialize considering the current drops in oil (up to -8%).
Here are the pump prices when oil was traveling at these levels 15 days ago
But how much can the price of gasoline actually drop with oil stably back below $ 100? According to the numbers, the calculation is soon done, just turn the clock back 15 days – when oil was below $ 100 – and see the average price of petrol and diesel at the distributors at that time. According to the data released daily by Quotidiano Energia on the basis of the data communicated by the operators to the Fuel Prices Observatory of the Mise, on Monday 28 February the national average price for petrol in self mode was 1,879 euros / liter, while that of self diesel was stationed at 1,753 euros / liter. Today the same data speak of petrol in self mode at 2,219 euros per liter (yesterday it was 2,217), with diesel self instead at 2,225 euros per liter.
Therefore the space for a normalization of petrol and diesel prices is very large: we are talking about over -15% potential of the price of gasoline to return to the levels of the end of Februarywhile the diesel price is expected to drop by as much as 21%.
A reasoning that has to deal with the fact that i pump prices do not follow oil prices in a linear fashion. As the Corriere points out, which consulted Azzurra Pacces of Staffetta Quotidiana, the quotations are formed in two markets: in Genoa for the Mediterranean and in Rotterdam for Northern Europe. The quotations in dollar ton are then translated first with the conversion into euro per thousand liters and then the companies resell them to the so-called wholesale distributors who in turn resell them to the points of sale, that is the refueling stations. A long chain, then. Furthermore, specifies Pacces, we are facing a liberalized market and the pricing policies are subject to normal marketing and competition rules.