MILANO – The day to circle on the calendar is Thursday 25 January. In fact, the meeting will be held almost simultaneously Bce and estimates will be provided on American GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023. No sensational news is expected, but important signs of confirmation or otherwise regarding prudence in interest rate policy, on both sides of the Atlantic.
The European Central Bank, through the President Christine Lagarde, has already announced that the markets’ hopes for a rate cut (perhaps as early as the second quarter of the year) are excessively optimistic. But the nuances of the post-council statement will be important to understand the future timing, reasonably starting from June; as they will be studied with the utmost attention all steps relating to the renewal program for expiring securitiesin the ECB budgets, relating to the support plans launched before and during the pandemic.
Likewise, still thinking about the next meeting on rates (January 31, in this case) there is a lot of anticipation for the first reading of the Arrow USA. Estimates are for one growth of 1.9%below 2% and well below the +4.9% of the third quarter of 2023. A value above 2% would be unwelcome by the market, which fears an overly prudent Fed on monetary policy, in the face of too much economic growth robust.
The start of the week will still be marked by OECD report on the economy in Italy, while the following day there will be important macro data at European level. The quarterly season will also start this week: the results of the first big names in the technological field are expected, from Intel, a Netflix, a Tesla. In Italy, all eyes are on the accounts of Stmwhile the government continues to work on the dossier ofex Ilva.
Here are the main events of the week, as reported bybreaking latest news
Monday
OECD: Economic survey of Italy.
Legacoop: Ipsos survey on the situation in the country.
ECB: President Christine Lagarde participates in the commemoration of the former German minister, Wolfgang Shaeuble in Berlin.
USA: super index in December.
Trimestrali Usa: United Airlines.
TUESDAY’
Confindustria: event “Industry, Transport, Logistics and Infrastructure: together for the country’s competitiveness”. President Carlo Bonomi participates.
Ryanair: press conference by CEO Michael O’Leary.
Copasir: hearing of the CEO of Webuild, Pietro Salini.
Boj: rate decision.
US quarterly: J&J, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Verizon, Texas Instruments, General Electric.
WEDNESDAY’
Tourism: Hotelier day of Federalberghi Rome.
Ethical bank: V report on financial inclusion.
Copasir: hearing of the Minister of EconomyGiancarlo Giorgetti.
Work: hearing of the minister Marina Calderone in the commission of inquiry into working conditions.
PMI indices in France, Germany, Eurozone, GB, USA.
USA: weekly oil inventories.
Tesla and IBM quarterly.
THURSDAY’
Highways: event “The sustainable mobility revolution starts from motorways”. Participating, among others, is the Minister of Infrastructure and Transport, Matteo Salvini.
Snam: strategic plan 2023-2027.
Bce: rate decision and president’s press conference, Christine Lagarde.
Germany: Ifo economic climate index.
Use: new weekly requests for unemployment benefits and durable goods orders in December.
Uses: Pil IV trimester and trade balance in December.
Visa and Intel quarterly.
FRIDAY’
Japan: inflation in January.
France: consumer confidence in January.
USA: PCE inflation in December and personal expenses and income in December.
Trimestrali: Caterpillar, American Express.