Source: Huarong Rongda Futures Author: Huarong Rongda Futures
The text of the research report
【Spot overview】
September 13,cottonThe spot index CCI3128B is quoted at 15,706 yuan/ton (-63), the current price difference is -1171 (the closing price of the 01 contract – the spot price), the price of polyester staple fiber is 7,600 yuan/ton (+50), and the price of viscose staple fiber is 13,900 yuan/ tons (+0).
The price of CYIndexC32S is 24,485 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of FCYIndexC32S is 29,768 yuan/ton (+153);Zheng MianWarehouse receipt 11267 (-169), effective forecast 0 (+0).
US EMOTM to Hong Kong price 125.7 cents / pound (+1.9); Brazil M to Hong Kong price 127.2 cents / pound (+1.9). On September 13, the central reserve cotton wheel entered the market with a quantity of 6,000 tons, but there was no transaction.
【Market analysis】
The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor overnight showed that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month in August, up 8.3% year-on-year, and was estimated at 8.1%.
That month, after excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year. After the US CPI data in August was released, the five major markets of stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, virtual currency and precious metals plunged across the board.
U.S. President Joe Biden said it will take more time and resolve to lower inflation. The market expects that the subsequent interest rate hike in the United States will remain hawkish, and the macro environment has weakened. ICE cotton futures closed at 102.25 cents/lb overnight, down 3.39 cents/lb from the previous trading day.
From a technical point of view, the MACD green column is heavy, the DIFF and DEA are fitted with a dead fork, the KDJ indicator is fitted with a dead fork, and the technical indicators are weakening. In the US cotton supply and demand report released the day before, the estimated global cotton production was raised to 25.789 million tons, of which the United States had the largest increase.
In the August report, the US cotton production was greatly reduced, and the market recognition was not high. In the September report, the production reduction was revised to 3.01 million tons. Pakistan suffered from floods in large areas in the middle and late August. Production was reduced to 1.197 million tons.
Global cotton consumption was slightly reduced to 25.828 million tons, and ending stocks were increased to 18.453 million tons. This report is generally bearish, and Zheng Mian bottomed out yesterday.
At present, the overall downstream market is running steadily. The market is still dominated by medium and low-count yarns, and the demand for combed high-count yarns is still relatively poor. It is expected that the short-term price of pure cotton yarn will be mainly stable.
【technical analysis】
Yesterday, the main 01 contract of Zheng cotton bottomed out and the Doji star closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Positions increased by 14,000 lots to 462,000 lots. From the technical point of Zhou’s super-win, in the ck mode, the F2 indicator and the capital flow indicator are empty, and the technical indicators have weakened.
【Operation strategy】
It is recommended that upstream cotton processing enterprises strictly implement the principle of hedging, and consider establishing virtual inventories in batches for downstream textile enterprises waiting for cotton prices to fall.
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