[Epoch Times, March 16, 2022](Comprehensive report by The Epoch Times reporter Liu Yi) On March 15, the onshore price (CNY) of the RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by 202 points, hitting a new low in nearly three and a half months, indicating that the CCP official The central parity rate of the RMB was also lowered by more than 250 points, hitting a low of nearly two and a half months, and continued to be significantly lower than market expectations.
On the 15th, the onshore price of RMB was 6.38 yuan per US dollar, down 202 pips or 0.32% from the closing price of 6.3598 at 4:30 pm on the 14th, and 145 points lower than the last transaction price of 6.3655 at 11:30 pm.
The central parity of the renminbi, which represents the official attitude of the CCP, was reported at 6.376 on the 15th, down 254 points from 6.3506 the previous day, hitting a new low in nearly two and a half months. Reuters said the price was significantly lower than market expectations.
Hong Kong’s “Electric News” quoted the analysis of foreign exchange traders as saying that the rapid spread of the new crown epidemic in the mainland has exacerbated market economic recovery concerns. The Central Bank of China has not lowered the medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate as expected by the market, and the central parity has been continuously lower than The market expects that the RMB will continue to adjust, and the stock market slump has also affected the market sentiment, but it is still too early to think that the exchange rate will reverse.
Reuters also quoted a Chinese bank trader as saying: “Today, CNH (free on board) tried 6.41 and failed. If it can break through, there may be more room, but the tone of this year should be stable, if the volatility is too large. We still need to intervene.” Now emotionally, the RMB is a bit depreciated, but from the current volatility, it is only the historical average level.
Zhang Jiantai, chief strategist for Asia at Mizuho Bank, also believes that the renminbi already has some depreciation pressure, but it is still too strong, but now the spread of the new crown epidemic will bring more pressure to the economic recovery.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) is widely expected to raise interest rates after its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with investors fully pricing in at least 25 basis points of rate hikes from the U.S. central bank. But the market sees a 70% chance of a 50 basis-point rate hike at the ensuing May meeting due to inflation concerns.
Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said: “The statement and Chairman Powell’s post-meeting press conference will have an impact on market expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike in May and beyond, which will affect the dollar’s performance. performance.”
As of 10:20 on March 16, Beijing time, the onshore price of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.3607, the FOB price was 6.3757, and the central parity price was 6.3800.
Since March 11, the central parity rate of RMB has been lowered, and at present, it has been lowered for 4 consecutive trading days. The median price was also lowered from 6.3105 on the 10th to 6.3306, 6.3506, 6.3760, and 6.3800, respectively.
Responsible editor: Li Muen