Financial Associated Press, October 30 (Editor Yao Hui)The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages are freshly released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: Concentrated release of emotional trading brings better buying points on the right side
The continuous outflow of gaming-oriented foreign capital and the repositioning of domestic capital have induced a concentrated release of short-term emotional trading in A-shares. With the increasingly clear domestic fundamentals and policy expectations, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates as scheduled in November and the US mid-term elections will be implemented. The peak of the pressure of rapid devaluation of the RMB It has already passed, consolidate the foundation for the mid-term repair of the market, and the bottom of the market will be confirmed twice in this round, bringing a better buying point on the right side. On the one hand, the concentrated outflow of gaming-oriented foreign capital has led to the oversold stocks of foreign stocks with heavy holdings. At the same time, the adjustment of domestic capital has accelerated. The fragmentation of domestic and foreign transactions and the obvious differentiation of styles and sizes have intensified the release of emotional trading of A shares, but the outflow of northbound funds has begun to slow down. As market transactions and fluctuations expand simultaneously, the bottom of the market will be confirmed twice. On the other hand, the release of domestic macro data in the third quarter and the disclosure of the third quarterly report of A-shares made clear the fundamental expectations. The Fed’s interest rate hike in November is expected to be implemented as scheduled next week. The end of the US mid-term elections will gradually improve the external environment, and the pressure of rapid depreciation of the RMB The peak has passed. With the further clarification of policy expectations, various disturbance factors will continue to ease, consolidating the foundation for the comprehensive repair of A shares in the medium term. The concentrated release of short-term emotional trading in A-shares brings a better buying point for the monthly-level market.
It is recommended to continue to adhere to a balanced allocation, focusing on varieties with room for valuation switching and strong policy certainty next year. ① The growth manufacturing field focuses on the white horse leaders in semiconductor and military industries that have been continuously adjusted before and will have room for valuation switching next year, Xinchuang in the independent and controllable field under the environment of increasing sanctions in the external technology field, and weak label attributes and valuation. New chemical materials with high cost performance. ②The pharmaceutical industry focuses on traditional Chinese medicine with high cost performance, medical equipment benefiting from new medical infrastructure, and medical equipment and services that fully digest valuation and policy concerns. ③The vocational education sector driven by the priority policy of people’s livelihood and employment after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
Huaan Securities: The market is expected to remain weak and fluctuating in November
Looking forward to November, the market is expected to remain in a weak and fluctuating situation, but it will be better than October. If there is a clear signal that overseas risks are weakened or domestic confidence is boosted, the market is expected to have a rebound opportunity. On the one hand, in terms of risk appetite, external risk constraints have not yet stabilized, and internal policies are more focused on implementation and effectiveness, and the overall risk appetite needs to be boosted. Etc., economic growth is still under pressure; three aspects, under economic pressure, monetary policy will not turn, but from the reality of economic operation at the end of the year, the probability of reducing the reserve ratio and interest rate is declining, and the trillions of MLF will likely be equal or even slightly reduced in November. do.
In terms of configuration, it is recommended to grasp certainty based on medium and long-term logic to maintain a balanced configuration: one is the concept of safety theme with strong catalysts in the short term and the medium and long-term advantageous market for the layout of the new energy track; the other is to focus on some consumer devices with long logic Update and improve the chain of pig breeding; the third is to grasp the high economic certainty of oil transportation and traditional energy.
Zheshang Securities: Grasp the rebound window at the bottom of the medium-term strategy
In the short term, combining sentiment, capital and profitability, we believe that the market has entered a rebound window. In the medium term, the market has ushered in a strategic bottom, new growth stocks have started to rise in an orderly manner, and the strategic importance of the allocation significance of the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
Although the market has ushered in a strategic bottom, looking forward to 23 years, we believe that the market will show significant differentiation, and the structural choice of the bottom area is more important. At present, the rise of hard technologies represented by strong chains, energy revolution, and smart economy will bring profit growth points to small and medium-sized enterprises, and then bring the trend style advantages of small-cap stocks. The new growth industry clues are as follows:
First, the strong chain complements the chain, covering semiconductor equipment parts, electronic consumables (silicon wafer/photoresist), design (simulation), etc., specialization, specialization, etc.; second, energy revolution, covering energy storage, photovoltaic new technologies , wind power, etc.; third, intelligent economy, covering automotive intelligence (lidar, domain control, etc.), and industrial intelligence (robots, industrial software, high-end machine tools, etc.); fourth, other AR/VR, electronic special gas , cultivated diamonds, new lithium battery technology, star chain, etc.
Huaxi Securities: A-shares enter deep value in exchange for time for space
At present, the market has taken into account more pessimistic expectations. From the perspective of valuation, institutional positions, risk premiums and other dimensions, the probability of being in the bottom range is high. The current position should not be overly pessimistic, the follow-up A shares are expected to exchange time for space, and it is necessary to observe the catalysis of positive factors at home and abroad. Overseas, pay attention to the expected trend of the market after the Fed’s interest rate meeting in November; domestically, continue to pay attention to the local epidemic situation, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies, and the continued effectiveness of policies to stabilize growth.
In terms of industry configuration, 1) the new energy sector is subdivided into high-prosperity fields, such as “energy storage, wind, light,” etc.; 2) “national security” related fields, such as “innovation, military, semiconductor, etc.”; 3) benefit Due to the continuous relaxation of the “policy by city” policy, real estate, etc.
CITIC Construction Investment: Grasp the Structure of the Bottom Regional Campaign
Looking ahead, we believe the current grind will continue. First of all, the current market is already at a historically low level, and the implied risk premium of A-shares has significantly exceeded the 90% quantile level in the past 8 years, and is at the highest position in recent years, which means that the current mid- and long-term allocation of A-share equity assets is very cost-effective. Further downside is limited, and it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic. On the other hand, affected by the aforementioned factors such as weak fundamentals and insufficient incremental funds, as well as possible external factors and risks, it is difficult for A-shares to rise at a large level at present. Investors should maintain reasonable expectations and grind the bottom with patience. Finally, in the context of weak fundamentals, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to changes in liquidity expectations and risk appetite, especially the decline in US bond interest rates, which is likely to be a potential positive factor in the future.
In terms of allocation ideas, considering that the industrial cycle and the marginal change of economic elasticity are not large, the industry allocation will continue to focus on the weak correlation direction of the total economic demand, and the operation will not chase after the dips: (1) Domestic demand is stable and long-term logic + policy improvement: Medicine; (2) Structural prosperity: wind/light/storage, military industry, etc.; (3) Growth-oriented independent and controllable: Xinchuang, semiconductor equipment/materials, military industry, etc.
CICC: Medium-term market opportunities outweigh risks
Some market valuation and sentiment indicators are already at historically extreme positions, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about the subsequent market environment. In the medium term, China’s domestic demand has great potential, the current policy constraints are relatively small, and there is ample room for reform and potential exploration. If the policy is timely and appropriate, the market opportunities will outweigh the risks from the perspective of 6-12 months.
It is recommended that the allocation should still focus on areas with low valuations, low macro-correlations or acceptable levels of prosperity and policy support. The current overall expectation of the growth sector is not low, and the positions are still relatively heavy. Systemic allocation opportunities may still need to be observed. To seize structural opportunities from the bottom up, the opportunity to switch from a strategic style to growth requires attention to overseas inflation and stable growth in China. Progress. The results of the third quarterly report are coming to an end, focusing on the sub-sectors where the performance may exceed expectations.
Western Securities: The bottom of the big level may be gradually approaching
From the perspective of overseas markets, major asset classes are gradually pricing in recession, and this judgment is expected to occur at the inflection point when we maintain our global liquidity expectations in November. The disclosure of the third quarterly report is coming to an end, and the bottom of the performance is expected to be gradually consolidated. The window for Layout Valuation Toggle Quotes is opening. The economic and market policies are gradually advancing, and the bottom of the major level may be gradually approaching.
As the disclosure period of the third quarterly report approaches, the valuation switching market of the pharmaceutical, home appliances, and food and beverage industries is entering a period of layout on the left. With the gradual advancement of future policies, the agriculture, semiconductor, innovation and military industries closely related to energy and information security are still worthy of attention. In addition, pay attention to vitamins, fertilizers and pesticides, titanium dioxide and investment opportunities in sub-sectors in the manufacturing industry that are expected to benefit from “European substitution”. And themed opportunities like virtual reality, gaming, digital currency, and more.
Industrial Securities: Focus on three main lines of repair in the bottom area
External risks continue to impact the market in the near future. But the current market is already in the bottom range of high cost performance.
Structurally, it focuses on the three main repair lines of “trusting military doctors”, “new semi-military” and “new infrastructure”. 1) “Xin Junyi”: Recently, “Xin Junyi” has ushered in policy-intensive catalysts, while valuation and congestion are still at historically low levels, and at the performance level, “Xin Junyi” includes Xinchuang, cloud computing, aviation equipment, innovative drugs, etc. The prosperity of many sub-sectors is expected to improve next year. Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective of economic conditions, valuation, congestion, funds and policies, the “trust military doctor” still has further upward momentum in the short term, and is expected to continue to benefit from the expected improvement in fund position replenishment and valuation repair in the medium term. , and in the long run, it is in line with the country’s development needs for “strengthening the independent and controllable field of scientific and technological innovation”, “maintaining national security” and “improving the public health system”, and the configuration value of the current position has become prominent. 2) “New Half Army”: The congestion level is still at a low level. Recently, the main funds have seen a turning point in the net inflow, and multiple funds have increased their positions. And according to our exclusively constructed leading indicator of analyst forecast revision strength, it’s still in an uptrend, pointing to a fix that isn’t over. 3) “New infrastructure”: Under the trend of the development of the digital economy in the next few years, China’s information technology will usher in the rise of science and technology in many fields such as basic software, basic hardware, industrial application software, and upgrading and transformation of the manufacturing industry. wave. The follow-up focuses on new infrastructure, digital industrialization, and industrial Internet, smart cities, smart agriculture, and intelligent transportation that empower traditional industries.
Zhongtai Securities: Actively grasp the warm winter market without fear of disturbance
Inflation in the United States has fallen slowly, and the path of interest rate hikes is halfway through. “One change and another grow” under recession expectations: The “steady growth” in the fourth quarter is clear, which will help the A-share Q4 warm winter market. Expectations of easing relations between major countries are heating up, and the implementation of the comprehensive registration system reform is expected to push up market risk appetite. As far as the allocation direction is concerned, the local substitution, electricity, finance, etc. will remain unchanged, and attention will be paid to the elasticity of oversold institutional stocks.
Haitong Securities: TMT-related digital economy has great potential in double-low industries
Industries with historical quantiles of valuation and fund holdings below 20% are defined as “double-low” industries. Historical data shows that the consumption and manufacturing industries have the most obvious characteristics, and the probability of rising in the second half of the double low is nearly 70%. The market is in a large bottom area. Currently, in the double-low industry, the digital economy related to TMT has great potential; in addition, emphasis is placed on high-prosperity new energy.