the blue dollar He started with everything on April 25, when he scored in the first hours of the day a strong stampede that took him on the verge of $500, then it began to decrease to 487 and again in hours close to closing it is at $495 and $490 is paid for the purchase.
Meanwhile, at the opposite end, the average official dollar trades without tremors around $219, 79 and 227.21 for sale.
The much feared number of $500 per dollar was just three pesos away. And analysts endorse the fact that the political uncertainty is pushing the rise. In addition, they add other issues such as the low impact that the soybean dollar has been having 3 and how little Argentines want the pesos.
In the midst of the bank run, the same Minister of Economy, Sergio Massacame out with a thread of tweets to explain why the dollar rose and ensure that the program with the International Monetary Fund will be rediscussed.
What did Sergio Massa say?
“For several days we have been experiencing an atypical situation of rumours, versions, false reports and their consequent impact on financial instruments linked to the dollar,” he explained.
Hot dollar: the blue started rising in the last week of April and closed at $462
He also assured that the Government will not remain passive and referred to the Fund. “We are going to use all the tools of the State to order this situation and in that sense We notified the IMF of the restrictions that weighed on Argentina and we are going to change in the rediscussion of the Program“.
And he went further: “Besideswe are going to use economic Criminal Justice as an investigation vehicle and clarification of some behaviors and the FIU and the CNV for the analysis of operations related to money laundering”.
The quotes and some looks from analysts
As explained to PROFILE Andres Reschini, of F2 Soluciones, today’s quotes reflect a pressing reality: “It seems that the tricks are over” (of the government), said.
Dollar without a roof: rumors abound, measures are lacking
For the financial analyst, “dAfter the announcement of ‘regulation measures’‘ by means of which it was announced that the Treasury would start to own the dollar bonds of public organizations and at the same time forced them to sell others in the market, withdrawals of deposits in dollars began and have not stopped“, he explained.
He also explained that the inflationary data for March was added later, with an upward surprise and “a slow and insufficient response from the BCRAwhich added to the meager result of the Export Increase Program III, caused the pesos to deepen the search for refuge in foreign currency”.
According to Reschini, since then not a single measure has been taken in favor of rationality and calm. “Only more restrictions that do not provide any peace of mind and the subject seems overwhelmed,” he graphed.
Precisely, in relation to the PIE III topic, it is worth considering that yesterday, and only for the soybean dollar, US$ 105 million entered and in total the field liquidated US$ 208 million. Since the differential exchange rate was implemented, US$1,390 million have been settled. Adding other grains and by-products, the field has liquidated more than US$2,000 so far this month (63% more than everything liquidated in March).
Uncertainty at the top
Eugenio MariChief Economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, explained to Perfil that what we see with these prices of the North American currency is that “uncertainty is at the highest level of the entire Alberto Fernández Administration”.
In Mari’s gaze, this uncertainty is fueled by political issues“how are the internal to the ruling coalition; and the poor economic performance; failure to meet fiscal goal for the first quarterpersistence of monetary financing, increase in relative price distortions, economy entering recession and drop in net reserves, among others”.
The economist explained that On the other side of this situation we see “a demand for pesos that continues to fall faster and faster. It has already hit its lowest level in 20 years, which It is directly reflected in the price of the parallel exchange rates and in the growth of the exchange rate gap“.
Paritarias 2023 with inflation and a red-hot blue dollar: how much did each union close at?
And he added: “These are the first variables to react, but then it will also be noticed in the other prices of the economy. With measurements up to the third week of April, in the fourth month of the year we once again aim to have monthly inflation starting at 7″. predicted.
What about financial dollars
Financial dollars continue to rise. While the MEP Dollar is at $460.67 for sale and $462.12 for purchase, the Cash with Settlement registers $466.40 and $467.68.
In yesterday’s session, the financial dollar registered its eighth consecutive rise. Thus, the cash with settlement (CCL) climbed $7.24 (1.6%) to $462.32. The spread with the official reached 110% (since last September it had not reached such a high gap). Meanwhile, the MEP or Stock Market dollar climbed $11.27 (2.6%) to settle at $449.02 (103.9% gap).
How much will the dollar be?
The million dollar question iswhat will be the currency price, however, it is difficult to find an unequivocal answer in a troubled market like the current one. For Jose Maria SeguraPartner of PwC Argentina, “It is not feasible to know an exact price but in the context and given the dynamics of supply and demand we can see a trend“, he assured PROFILE.
Regarding the supply of dollars, Segura pointed out that above all it must be considered that it is a market that had been working with the restrictions of the exchange rate for lack of dollars. Added to this was the drought with harsher consequences than expected and the effect of a good harvest in Brazil that did not allow prices to improve. In addition, the economist indicated that the supply of dollars may come from the side of the IMF disbursements and the possibility that this gives rise to the disbursements of multilateral organizations. “What we have at this level is a breach of the reserve accumulation goals and also of a fiscal goal, which requires a renegotiation,” he commented.
For the chief economist of PwC Argentina “As long as that is not resolved, there is uncertainty in the exchange market,” explained.
On the demand side for dollars, he pointed out “an inflationary acceleration due to a monetary dynamic due to the remunerated and non-remunerated liabilities of the Central for different reasons, which puts the BCRA in the dilemma of having to increase the rate to contain inflation and dollarization of portfolios”.
In summary, for Segura, if the fundamental factors are not corrected, the partial measures will be less and less effective.
“Currently pwould reveal that the only available is for dollars to enter, and the only channel that would remain is the IMF. However, without basic corrections, it would only be one more palliative for a while. That is why it would seem difficult for the Fund to generate some type of concession without some firmer commitment. It could happen, yes. But that analysis is more for a geopolitical analyst than for an economist #, he predicted.
Is there a ceiling for the dollar?
When we talk about what the dollar ceiling is, the financial analyst Nicolás Olivé Duran, trader of financial derivatives, bonds and options market maker responsible for Rudolph, explained to PROFILE that “setting a dollar price is very difficult, since prices are relative and ultimately will be determined by what someone is willing to pay for said assetand that is impossible to know exactly,” he said. However, he added that what we can do is “infer from relative prices what the value of an asset would be in comparison with others that have shown a past correlation”.
In this way, “if we take the value of the dollar at the time of Duhalde ($4 from 2002) and calculate what its current price should be, adjusting that price for inflation in the same period, we have that the current value would be in the area of 466 pesos“, he analyzed.
For his part, Reschini from F2 Soluciones agreed that it is not an easy task to think about what can happen in the future. “We are also in an election year and that adds pressure. It is very difficult to know how far it can go and in fact I do not know,” he was honest.
And in that line he added: “As long as they continue to generate a climate against the demand for pesos, the exchange rate will continue to rise,” he warned.
For his part, Olivé Durán joined Reschini’s gaze. “As long as the underlying dynamics do not change, we cannot expect a calm dollar, We must understand that the dollar will continue to follow the rhythm of inflation with seasonal dynamics, where at times there will be upward movements, and corrections of those movements,” he said, adding a panorama that nobody wants to see: “we will have a dollar each month higher. And as we said before, a good benchmark for this is to follow the inflation-adjusted value of the dollar,” she graphed.
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