12:04
After reaching the $495 for sale and approaching $500the blue dollar he lost three pesos to be located in $492 for sale and $488 for purchase, in a first hour marked by slight volatility. For his part, The MEP dollar it is trading at $440.33 for the purchase and $440.63 for the sale. the CCL It is in the range of $446.25 to buy and $448.48 to sell.
11:26 am
A little less than half an hour before the markets began the second round of the week, The blue dollar is trading at $490 for purchase and $495 for sale. Rising $12 from Monday’s close and reaching a new high.
The MEP dollar is trading at the same time at $441.83 for purchase and $441.83 for sale; the CCL does it at $448.66 for the purchase and $448.66 for the sale.
The parallel currency closed the first round of the week at $483 for sale and $478 for the purchase, increasing $9 compared to the quote of the opening, the day they entered into full force the new anti-inflationary measures of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa.
However, after noon and after a tense calm, this Monday the illegal dollar began to rise reaching its highest increase in three weeks and breaking the $480 barrier again. The analysts consulted by PERFIL consider that the election year, the inflationary context and “increasing restrictions” will continue to push the parallel currency up.
This Tuesday, at the time of writing this note (10:15) am, the parallel currency is trading at $478 for purchase and $483 for sale; the MEP dollar at $437.20 for the purchase and $437.58 for the sale. For his part, cash with liquidation It does so at $442.47 for the purchase and $444.63 for the sale.
The blue dollar closed at $483 on the day of the debut of Massa’s measures
Likewise, the official exchange rate experienced an increase of 5.9% monthlyconfirming a decrease in the speed of the devaluation observed in recent days.
According to an analysis of Cohenif the rate of crawling peg of the last five days until the end of May, it is projected that the current month will end with an average increase of 7.5% compared to the previous month, exceeding by 0.2% the expectations of the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM).
The increases in food consolidateDestacadoat a floor of 10% per month
Meanwhile, financial dollars closed higher in implicit prices. the MEP rose +0.8% and closed at $437.6 per dollar and the CCL it advanced 0.8% reaching $472.7 per dollar (accumulating a 37.4% rise so far in 2023). So the gap between MEP and the official dollar was at 89.7% and that of the CCL reached 104.9%.
Every restriction brings exchange noise
“Every restriction brings exchange noise. On the other hand, there is a not minor issue, we are in an electoral period of great uncertainty, many doubts. youYou also have to bear in mind that the gap with the blue is around 107% against the wholesale dollar. A year ago we had the gap at 125%; then in September 2020 the gap was 115%”, he began by explaining Walter Morales, president of Wise Capital.
“So, with negative net reserves, they do not take measures, but patches, and when there is no plan, there is a lack of integrity; added to the context of high inflation, political uncertainty, with all this ecosystem of adversities it would be logical to think that the gap would once again be close to 120%”, added Morales.
“The market did not have a negative measurement readingbut not positive either. The exchange rate gap is going to rise inexorably in the face of PASO ”, she warned.
And he recommended: “Protection is not blue. VIn the medium term (January-February 2024) there are two protections: the stock and the other is: everything that is tied to the wholesale dollar, then the coverage is the dual bonds and the linked dollar”, he concluded.
A new scenario for the market
“The 8.4% inflation data again generates a new change in relative prices and a new scenario for the market. The measures taken by the government are seeking to anchor a new direction which in terms of reference prices was unanchored”, Maximilian Ramirezformer Undersecretary of Macroeconomic Programming, in dialogue with PROFILE.
“The rate increases they seek precisely to anchor expectations in a new nominal value of 8% average. Therefore, it is normal that the prices of alternative dollars tend to look for this new dynamic,” Ramírez added. clarifying that the movement in financial dollars is normal after Massa’s announcements.
“On the other handyou will see that the gap between the intervened dollars and the free ones will begin to increase. A situation that in the medium term will also end up converging with a rise when the BCRA loses its power to intervene,” warned the former official.
“One point to take into account is how effective the increase in the rate is in this context. In particular, the measures are ineffective given the dynamicsthe rate rise, although it contains you in the short, generates more expectations of future inflation and that feeds back expectations. And you always end up generating a new price distortion,” concluded Ramírez.