A few days ago Salvador Di Stefano He has been saying it: “It would seem that the dollar stopped being an object of desire” but now he added the new seasoning that, after the Central Bank’s lowering of rates, a financial instrument that many people are unaware of. These are inflation-adjusted bonds that, according to their criteria, have been showing “a positive behavior in pesos and dollars.”
What happened to interest rates?
A few days ago the Central Bank lowered the monetary policy rate to 80% annually, which implies a effective rate of 116.9% annually, compared to an inflation rate that the consulting firm SDS projects as of March 2025 at 133.1% annually.
“This implies that, the remunerated liabilities of the Central Bank will grow below expected inflation”, assures Di Stéfano and adds that “We project the devaluation rate at 108.9% annually, which implies that, l“The rate paid by the Central Bank would be positive against the American currency by 3.8% annually.”
Fixed term: how much each bank pays per $100,000 after the rate decreases
As for the fixed terms, the rate paid by the entities was released, therefore, supply and demand will define the market. “Since banks do not need deposits, the market was built around a nominal rate of 75% annually, which implies an effective rate of 107.0% annually, this rate is lower than the projected inflation, which implies a negative rate of 11.2% annually,” says the economist.
How are fixed terms faring in relation to bonds?
“Fixed terms have a double-digit negative rate, and Inflation-adjusted peso bonds have single-digit negative rates, as is the case of the TX26 that yields -7.6% annually and the TX28 that yields -5.0% annually. This implies that, Instead of making a fixed term, it is better to invest in this type of financial instruments, that have a lower negative rate compared to inflation,” highlighted the economist.
Now, Di Stéfano indicates that “To buy a bond adjusted for inflation and that has a positive rate, we have to buy the DICP that matures in 2033 and has a positive rate of 2.2% per year against inflation”, commented.
For the renowned market analysto, bonds in pesos adjusted for inflation have shown positive behavior in pesos and dollars, while the dollar today is trading at similar values to those it had at the beginning of the year. “For example, the MEP dollar was worth $995 on December 30, and yesterday it closed at $1,012,” he said.
The unexpected winner in a basket of coins in Argentina
“The dynamics of the capital market have resulted in great profits so far in 2023, for example, the AL30 was worth US$37.85 on December 30 and yesterday it closed at US$47. .78, which represents a gain in dollars of 28.9%,” described Di Stéfano and added: “The AE38 bond as of December 30 was worth US$ 39.92, while yesterday it closed at US$ “S 42.52, which implies a gain of 2.5% per year. This implies that the short bonds comfortably surpassed in profits the long bonds that have higher income payments.”
For his part, ““The Merval index in dollars was quoted at the end of the year at US$940.4 and yesterday at US$997.4, which implies a gain of 6.1%.”said.
Finally, the analyst acknowledged: “So far this year, great profits have been obtained in bonds in pesos adjusted for inflation, and in short-term sovereign bonds in dollars, while long bonds and the merval index had favorable returns. , but not with big differences.”
What’s coming
Then, the economist analyzed what is coming: “If the national government wants to obtain external financing, it must work to lower the country risk, Bonds in dollars should show an internal rate of return that is between 15% and 18% annually, which would leave bonds such as AL30 and AE38 with profits greater than 30% annually,” he explained.
Regarding the actions, he considered: “They should take off on the rise, However, the threat of a downward correction in the American economy means that the market continues to move sideways in a range between the US$ 1,000 ceiling and US$ 900 floor with ample possibilities of correction.”
When referring to bonds in pesos adjusted for inflation, he highlighted that “They are still an excellent investment, Its technical value runs at the rate of inflation, and its parities accompany the rise, “We should not rule out that any deviation in prices will give these titles the opportunity to boost growth,” he pointed.
Finally, he assured that “It would seem that the market is on the side of inflation-adjusted pesos and short-term dollar sovereign bonds, the rest goes unnoticed within a general attractive business trend, but somewhat tied in terms of profits. The dollar is no longer desired as in the past, the supply in the market is very high, a product of the recession, exports and Bopreal,” he pointed out.
LR