The journey of Zelensky in Europa – and in particular a Rome, Berlin and Paris – did not bring peace closer but finally allowed to better understand the prospects of the clash between Ukraine e Russia. The most important information on the military level is that Kiev it is not yet ready for the expected spring counter-offensive given that we are now at the beginning of summer and the Ukrainian president is insistently asking for weapons, especially fighter planes, which should allow him to unleash it.
And in the face of the prospect of the great counter-offensive, European nations are on Ukraine’s side, but at the same time worried about the rigidity of Zelensky who does not want to sit at a table with the Russians before the Russians have given up their territorial conquests . But so far the Russians have not given the slightest sign of wanting to give up a single meter of what they have taken by force. And if on the one hand Volodymyr of Kiev does not want to stop fighting, on the other hand Vladimir of Mosca shows no signs of withdrawing but rather accuses the West, both Europe and the United States and the United Kingdom, of wanting the destruction of Russia. Which is perfectly false but is enough of an indictment to keep the nuclear option going. Put simply, Putin cornered, threatens to do like Samson that he preferred to die with the Philistine invaders by collapsing the temple.
How real is the threat of the use of nuclear weapons no one is able to evaluate it, but the nightmare is concrete and this is a fact. Zelensky said no to a meditation by Pope Francis who, moreover, didn’t have much more to offer, beyond the strong words of condemnation for the deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia, if not the channel opened with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church Cyril, who is fully aligned with the Kremlin but at the same time increasingly concerned about the tens of thousands of young Russians being sent to slaughter. Thus, the Pope of Rome can only offer moral pressure on the Pope of Moscow to soften the tsar and his military circle.
In Italy the firmness of Giorgia Meloni in declaring himself totally in solidarity with the Ukrainian people and government, he deeply angered the Five Star leader Joseph Conte who in an interview with La Stampa accuses the government of promoting war to overshadow the country’s internal problems.
The most productive stops on Zelensky’s journey were in Berlin from Olaf Scholz and in Paris from Emmanuel Macron, because both promised the immediate delivery of useful weapons to the battlefield. The German chancellor has promised the delivery of planes and tanks useful only on Ukrainian territory but not for a counterattack on Russian territory.
Also Rishi Sunak had a meeting with Zelensky in London in which he confirmed the supplies requested by Zelensky along the lines of Joe Biden: all the weapons in Kiev so that it can defend itself and repel the invader, but without having the aim of overthrowing the Moscow government which the White House and the State Department consider it undesirable because it could lead to the collapse of Asian Russia’s territorial integrity by favoring Beijing’s appetites.
Zelensky then went shopping in Europe trying to bring home all the war material he still lacks, and this was the most important news on the war front, for the famous but as yet non-existent great counter-offensive. It is true that he was able to field many new brigades of well trained soldiers in Europe especially in Germany and France. But also in the United Kingdom and the United States, which have already been deployed in the field with the result of pushing back the Russian troops by several kilometers. This vast operation of European consolidation on the supply to Kiev of weapons useful for defense in the invaded territory, but not expendable against Russian territory, has accelerated the processes of division within the Russian armed forces because during Zelensky’s trip it was learned that the Wagner battalion chief, Evgeny Prigozhin in his brutal quarrel with Putin, he offered Kiev strategic intelligence on the Russian deployment in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut. Prigozhin wanted to sell Russian military security in order to win his own personal victory.
This revelation caused a stir and was hailed by analysts as yet another fracture in the Kremlin’s leadership. The French action is part of that fracture, aiming for the victory of an anti-Putin consortium with the tacit assent of Beijing given the sumptuous level of imperial reception that Xi Jinping offered to Macron. There is therefore a part of Europe that clearly separates itself from the American position which would like to unite all Western countries into a united anti-Chinese front.
None of Europe’s leaders has been able to find persuasive elements to convince Zelensky to declare himself ready for negotiations before having driven out the invading army, and according to the Wall Street Journal, France, Germany and the United Kingdom have advanced a proposal Very audacity: to offer Ukraine a non-formal membership of NATO which would protect it once and for all from any Russian threat, in exchange for some concessions on the Donbass the two self-proclaimed republics and of course the Crimea, i.e. the areas that Moscow claims as being inhabited by Russian speakers. Until now, Ukraine’s requests for NATO membership advanced since 2014 had all been rejected precisely because this country was already in a state of conflict with Russia and therefore its membership could have forced the entire alliance to to wage war on Russia in case of aggression.
We still have no idea if and how the Kiev government has accepted this hypothesis which would have the advantage of imposing a ceasefire on Putin by granting him many claimed territories in exchange. But in this case Putin would find himself facing the nightmare I have always talked about: NATO officially has its borders even if not with its flags, because the plan of London, Paris and Berlin would make Ukraine a non-formal member in NATO but militarily protected by all Western countries.