Boris Johnson’s government has finally fallen. For months, the premier has escaped one scandal after another. Now, irremediably discharged by his own deputies, he has accepted the end of his mandate. He has asked to remain in office until the fall, but it would be better if he left immediately.
Johnson has been ruined by his own dishonesty, and some may think that a simple change of leadership will be enough to get the UK back on track. I wish it was like that. Although the chaos of recent times is largely his fault, the problems go far beyond the person of him. If the Conservative Party does not find the strength to face this fact, the UK’s social and economic difficulties will only get worse.
Until the end Johnson tried to stay in power, claiming to have received a direct mandate from the people. It was always nonsense: his legitimacy came from parliament. Like former US President Donald Trump, the more he clung to his chair, the more unworthy he became of his office. In the way he left, as in the way he ruled, Johnson showed a brazen disregard for the interests of his party and the country.
His fate was sealed on July 5, when two ministers resigned. The triggering event was the behavior of the deputy leader of the Conservative Party, accused of molesting two men while he was drunk. The prime minister lied about what he knew of the previous abuses, and sent his ministers to repeat those lies, as he had done months earlier about the banned parties organized during the covid-19 pandemic. Desperate for yet another scandal, more than fifty ministers, assistants and diplomats have resigned. Eventually the government had so many holes that it could no longer function.
Conservatives hope that the party’s agony is also about to end. But for this to happen they will have to draw the right lessons. One is about character. Johnson rejected the idea that ruling means choosing. He lacked the moral depth necessary to make difficult decisions for the good of the country at the cost of losing its popularity. He also lacked the constancy and mastery of the details necessary to carry out his projects. And he enjoyed trampling on rules and conventions. Underlying his style was an unwavering belief in the ability to get out of trouble by manipulating words. Cornered, Johnson knew how to charm, procrastinate, procrastinate and lie. Sometimes he even went so far as to apologize.
As a result, the best things he has done, such as buying covid-19 vaccines and supporting Ukraine, have been overshadowed by scandals elsewhere. Where there should have been an overview there was a void. Crises were not a distraction from government activity: they had become the main activity of government. As the scandals increased, so did the lies. In the end there isn’t much else left.
Conservatives were quick to blame Johnson’s personality for everything. But his departure will be cathartic only if they admit even a more uncomfortable truth. Johnson was a response to the party’s contradictions. Many of the Tory MPs belong to the liberal tradition, oriented towards free markets and tax cuts, but others, many of them from the northern constituencies, belong to the new interventionist and protectionist wing. It was the latter who gave Johnson an 87-seat majority in the last election, and they will be key to the conservatives’ fortunes in the next.
With his charisma Johnson was able to unite these factions, because he never felt the need to resolve their contradictions. He was in favor of both protectionism and free trade agreements; he wanted to break down the bureaucracy but then punished energy companies for high prices; he planned large public spending but promised deep tax cuts. It was a policy of illusions, which can be traced back to Brexit.
During the campaign for the referendum on leaving the European Union, Johnson promised voters that they could have everything they wanted: more wealth, less Europe; more freedom, fewer rules; more dynamism, less immigration. It worked so well that illusion became the organizing principle of conservatives. Nowhere is this as evident as in economics, where the third lesson for the next government lies. Johnson has often boasted that the whole world envied the UK’s achievements, but the truth is that the country he will leave behind faces deep social and economic problems. It has the highest inflation of the G7, and the government’s generous deficit spending could exacerbate it further. In the ten years before the financial crisis of 2007-2009, GDP grew by 2.7 percent per year, while today the average is close to 1.7 percent. The UK has been trapped in a phase of low productivity for 15 years. In 2023 it is expected to record the slowest growth of the entire G7.
As if that weren’t enough, this broken-down engine will have to undergo extraordinary efforts. Worker protest movements are expanding, from railroad workers to lawyers and doctors. As the cost of living rises, a determined government is needed to stay the course on spending. The country is aging. From 1987 to 2010, when the Conservatives came to power, the percentage of the population over 65 had remained constant at 16 percent. Today it is at 19 per cent, and by 2035 it will reach 25 per cent, increasing the burden on the welfare state and on the health service. The UK also needs to accelerate the transition to a zero-emission economy, which requires large investments. It has the ambition to count in a world in which Russia and China have a big voice, but its armed forces are small and poorly equipped. Scotland and Northern Ireland are restless, and the government has no plan to please them.
The UK is in a dangerous situation. The country is poorer than it thinks. The trade deficit has grown, the pound has plummeted and interest rates on debt are on the rise. If the next government insists on increasing spending and cutting taxes at the same time, it could stumble into a crisis. The time when everything was possible is over. With Johnson’s departure, politics must be based on reality again. ◆as