ALTHOUGH it is not ruled out that the ‘Niño’ phenomenon produces some impact on energy prices, what is clear is that regardless of this, the rates will rise by the end of the year between 10% and 15% .
According to a Bancolombia investigation, this is due to the lags that exist in the collection since the pandemic, since many users took advantage of an option that sooner or later they must pay.
The report considers that the rates will rise depending on the exposure on the stock market of each of the distributors and marketers of energy on the stock market. The most affected regions will be Huila, Nariño, Cauca, Santander and Valle del Cauca (Cali.
The document indicates that a 100% increase in the price of energy on the stock market would be reflected in increases in the calculated tariff of 10%, or less. In those regions with greater exposure to energy on the stock market, the same variation will imply an increase of 15%.
Although the effect will not be direct in the pocket of Colombians given the existence of the tariff option, this value must be paid.
Earrings
According to the investigation, the rate option is a tool that was used during the 2020 pandemic to provide relief to the pocket of Colombians; It consists of charging a lower value than the calculated unit cost and the difference between what is charged (CU rate option) and what it really costs (CU calculated) goes to an account receivable that will be recovered at a better moment in the economy. Thus, distributors and marketers helped during the difficult situation of the pandemic and, later, they would recover the uncollected amounts.
However, three years after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, there are agents that continue to deliver benefits to the energy rate and have been increasing the accounts receivable from their users for 40 months, which will eventually have to be recovered.
“Because of the above, even without the arrival of ‘El Niño’ 2023-2024, there is already a citizen’s debt towards some energy companies and we do not know the individual capacities of each of the distribution and commercialization companies to maintain this tariff scheme if there are significant pressures on the cost of generation. Undoubtedly, the greatest financial effects will be in the companies with a greater exposure to the price of energy on the stock market”, say the experts.
stock price
On the other hand, the analysis maintains that “the price on the stock market may show increases never seen in history. Given that in the 2015-2016 period the maximum price at which energy from thermal plants was remunerated was around $320/kWh and today it is around $1,150/kWh, in an extreme scenario of drought the price on the stock market can reach to have a cost 3.6 times higher than that previously presented, so the opportunity cost of having water to not turn on thermal plants is significantly higher. The reason is not only a regulatory change, but a higher cost of energy such as gas and coal”.
During 1991 and 1992 Colombia experienced an ‘El Niño’ phenomenon that led the country to an energy crisis, with energy rationing between 1992 and 1993. Subsequently, the legal framework for the operation of the electrical system was created with laws 142 and 143 of 1994, with the aim of avoiding a blackout event. This legal framework has proven its effectiveness, since Colombia has gone through five climatic phenomena without going into blackouts, some like those of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 even stronger than ‘El Niño’, which caused the remembered blackout.
Hence, it is expected that this time the country will be able to face this impact, but users should expect an increase in rates given the outstanding balances with the distributors or marketers.