[Epoch Times, March 1, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Luo Ya and Gao Miao interviewed and reported) At the sensitive time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the CCP announced that starting from the 27th, it will conduct military training in parts of the South China Sea and the Bohai Sea. draw attention. However, experts said that Taiwan should remain vigilant, but it should not be over-interpreted, so as not to help the CCP’s propaganda and create an intimidating effect.
Analysis: The CCP wants to use the media to expand propaganda to form an intimidating effect
The website of the Maritime Safety Administration of the People’s Republic of China recently issued a navigation warning saying that from February 27 to March 1, military training will be conducted in some waters of the South China Sea from 11:00 to 15:00 every day, and (vessels) are prohibited from entering.
At the same time, the Liaoning Dalian Maritime Safety Administration of the Communist Party of China also issued a navigation warning saying that from 16:00 on February 27 to 16:00 on March 13, military missions were performed in the northern part of the Yellow Sea in the Bohai Strait, and (vessels) were prohibited from entering.
In addition, from February 24th to 28th, the CCP dispatched common planes to intrude the Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone of Taiwan, which was broadcast by the air patrols of the Taiwan Air Force.
The government of the Republic of China is also currently on high alert, worried that the CCP may try to take advantage of the current situation and take action against Taiwan.
Regarding the above issues, Su Ziyun, director of the Taiwan Institute of National Defense Strategy and Resources, and Li Zhengxiu, a Taiwan military expert, were interviewed by The Epoch Times on the 28th.
Su Ziyun believes that Taiwan should maintain vigilance against the CCP’s military exercises, but it does not need to scare itself.
He said that China’s exercise in the South China Sea did not prohibit the passage of aircraft, but only controlled surface ships, so it was only a small arms exercise. If these messages from China are amplified too much, a so-called “cognitive war” will be formed.
He pointed out that the CCP has always been seven parts political and three parts military. Its military exercise is likely to be a routine test of small firearms, but its state media will take the opportunity to amplify its propaganda for a political effect.
He said, “This has appeared many times since 2018, and each time it is said to be aimed at Taiwan or an island landing exercise, but in fact it may be an exercise for a platoon or a company, but it is put in the media. It is very large, and this is equivalent to intimidating Taiwan at a very low cost. If we interpret it excessively, it is equivalent to propaganda for the CCP, which is not beneficial.”
He emphasized, “We need to filter these information very carefully to make accurate judgments, rather than overreacting to a small exercise.” “So as not to cause the wolf to cry for a long time, it may become numb, this is the key to A place of caution.”
Taiwan military expert Li Zhengxiu also expressed the same view. He said that the CCP’s biggest military opponent is the United States at present. The main purpose of the CCP’s exercises in the Bohai Sea and the South China Sea this time is how they will respond to the coalition forces of the United States and Japan and the military deployment of the United States in the Pacific region in the event of a war.
Li Zhengxiu said that this is a relatively new topic and new tactical preparation for the CCP. After all, the United States has been deployed in the Western Pacific for a long time since World War II. Due to the limitation of the CCP’s military power in the past, their navy in the past mainly focused on near-shore operations. But as their entire armament modernizes and upgrades, they will of course slowly come out of the nearshore.
Analysis: Taiwan Strait security concerns the trade and political stability of the United States and the world
The U.S. Seventh Fleet said in a statement on its official Twitter that the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson passed through the Taiwan Strait on February 26, “in a demonstration of the United States‘ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region. “. “The U.S. military flies, sails and conducts missions wherever international law allows,” the statement said.
Su Ziyun analyzed from the economic aspect that the United States emphasizes a free and open Indo-Pacific region, which is highly related to the stability of trade and market order in the world, and trade and the market will also be linked to political stability.
For example, he said that nearly 95% of Taiwan’s energy passes through the South China Sea, and 90% of Japan’s crude oil and 76% of its natural gas pass through the South China Sea. According to the statistics of the World Shipping Organization, there are about 18 trillion goods in the world every year, and nearly one third of them pass through the South China Sea, because it is an important route connecting Europe, Asia and Africa. So the South China Sea is not only important to Taiwan, but also important to the world.
He pointed out that just before the Ukrainian war was tense, the U.S. released its Indo-Pacific strategy report, listing Taiwan as an important security partner; Blinken made a shuttle visit to small island countries in the South Pacific; the size of the U.S. Pacific Fleet surpassed that of the Atlantic Fleet. ; A lot of the budget in the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act is also aimed at the CCP, including some new military threats from the CCP. In particular, there is a clause called the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which lists nearly five billion dollars for strengthening the Indo-Pacific The military defense capabilities of partner nations; and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s military investments are clear indications that the United States places its strategic center in the Indo-Pacific region.
Analysis: The Taiwan Strait is different from the Ukrainian battlefield
Li Zhengxiu said that the United States has always been concerned about the security and stability of the Western Pacific. Because Asia is now an important engine of the world economy and a huge market, for the United States, such a strategic position cannot be lost. So he will always use diplomatic and military advantages to continue to maintain his leadership.
He believes that although the Republic of China has no formal diplomatic relations with the United States, for the United States, the United States has a moral responsibility for the safety of Taiwan. According to the Taiwan Relations Act, they will provide Taiwan with weapons. Although the United States has not said whether it will send troops, it is clear that the safety of Taiwan is very important to the United States. That’s why they have repeatedly reminded the CCP not to use force to solve the Taiwan Strait issue, because this will inevitably force the United States to take action.
Su Ziyun also emphasized that it is not an easy task for the CCP to attack the Taiwan Strait. He said that the Taiwan Strait is different from the Ukraine battlefield. Ukraine is a ground war, and the Taiwan Strait is a sea and air battlefield. In the Taiwan Strait, the CCP must gather its troops to board the ship and cross the sea, and it is easy to be defeated. “So Taiwan is much luckier than Ukraine. As long as it makes good use of its geographical location, topographical conditions, and reasonable military investment, it can be beneficial to an invincible position.”
However, he also reminded that Russia is threatening to use nuclear weapons, and the CCP is also vigorously increasing its nuclear weapons projection capability and nuclear warhead (production), so it is very important to update the missile defense system, and the missile defense system must be more complete to prevent such nuclear extortion. .
Responsible editor: Li Qiong#