Does he go or does he stay? The future of Niclas Füllkrug is still open. Werder Bremen is fighting to keep its top scorer, but has also prepared for a change. Not officially, but clearly visible to the public and, above all, to the industry, the club put an imaginary price tag on the striker. It is said that at least 20 million euros should be transferred to the Werder cash register for a filling jug transfer. But how was this sum actually determined? How valuable is the filling jug really? So far, there was primarily one source for this in football: transfermarkt.de. The Internet portal relies on the knowledge of its community. Now there is a new provider with “gool.ai” – and it relies on artificial intelligence (AI) that processes a lot of data. In the case of the filling mug, however, this currently ensures a market value that Werder should not be enough for a transfer: 8.04 million euros.
“We are an objective evaluation tool without a gut opinion,” emphasizes Dr. Robert Kohtes, Head of Business Development at GET Capital. The company from Mönchengladbach uses artificial intelligence to manage funds for institutional investors such as pension funds and has transferred this experience to sport. A multi-year project with FC Sevilla helped. An extensive AI scouting platform was developed for the Europa League winner, with the market value calculation being just one component. But those responsible found the topic so exciting that gool GmbH was created together with Michael Proch (formerly transfermarkt.de) – with market values of over 90,000 players in 70 leagues.
Up to 300 data points per player are used and evaluated depending on the position. This also includes a comparison with other players – globally. “We can say exactly which performance data make which contribution to the market value,” says Proch.
In the case of Füllkrug, his playing time, goals and goal attempts are considered major market value drivers, as are his physique, his low number of errors and his defensive actions. The analysis is extremely detailed and ensures that a weaker pass rate lowers the market value of Füllkrug. Just like the age of the now 30-year-old. All calculations are dynamic and updated weekly. The bottom line at Füllkrug is now 8.04 million euros, which is also his previous high at “gool.ai”, which looks back six years.
We want to revolutionize modern international football with transparent, fair and comparable market values by offering players, advisors and clubs an objective evaluation standard using big data and artificial intelligence.
gool.ai
Despite this record, the number is far from the assessment at “transfermarkt.de”. There, the filling mug is valued at 13 million euros, suggested by the community and ultimately determined by the editors. The calculation takes into account, among other things, sporting achievements and the age of the player. In addition, the future perspective, the real demand on the transfer market and the transfer fees paid so far are included in the calculation. Incidentally, the latter two parameters are not mapped in the “gool.ai” models.
When looking at the entire Werder squad, it is noticeable that the difference between “gool.ai” (72 million euros) and “transfermarkt.de” (79 million euros) is no longer that big. And a Marco Friedl is valued higher by artificial intelligence at 7.49 million euros than by the fans (6.5 million euros). The same applies to Milos Veljkovic (5.95 to 5.0), Jens Stage (4.98 to 3.5) and Romano Schmid (4.72 to 4.5). The opposite is not only the case with Füllkrug, but also with Amos Pieper (6.0 to 3.55), Mitchell Weiser (5.5 to 3.82) or Lee Buchanan (3.5 to 2.21).
How Niclas Füllkrug’s market value could develop in the event of a change
The new platform “gool.ai” offers two more interesting delicacies. Firstly, a look into the future. In the case of the filling mug, for example, it is expected that its market value will fall to EUR 7.24 million next year – and even to EUR 4.92 million a year later. The age of the attacker certainly plays a major role. Just like probably with Buchanan. The AI predicts that in twelve months it will be worth 1.74 million euros more than it is currently – i.e. 3.95.
And then there is the theoretical change of club: So what would the market value of a jug be if it wore the jersey of FC Bayern Munich. Lo and behold, the AI spits out a sum of 15.83 million euros, even 28.98 for Manchester City. Both that and the look into the future only seem like nice gimmicks at first, but can be quite interesting, especially for clubs and professionals. Bundesliga clubs are already using figures from “transfermarkt.de” for their day-to-day work and even for their annual reports.
“We want to revolutionize modern international football with transparent, fair and comparable market values by offering players, consultants and clubs an objective evaluation standard using big data and artificial intelligence,” says “gool.ai”. The next few weeks could show how good the assessment at Füllkrug is. However, only if the national player should actually change. And then it should also be decisive whether several clubs are vying for his services. Werder is probably also counting on this and has set its filling jug price correspondingly high at at least 20 million euros.
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