Prison has never been an election campaign theme. But in the one that is about to end, the silence was “almost absolute”, despite the frightening numbers on suicides: “57 in the first eight months of the year, four less than the total in the twelve months of 2021, in addition to 19 deaths ‘for causes to be ascertained’ “. These are the words of Mauro Palma, national guarantor of the rights of people deprived of personal freedom, who have fallen on deaf ears or almost, like many others.
In the election campaign, the existence of prisoners continues to be ignored, just as there is no talk of justice or, in general, of people’s daily lives. Not a word or so is uttered on school and health care, if not in stereotyped formulas, while the public debate is monopolized by issues concerning power, starting from present and future alliances between leaders and parties, and almost always without any explained the political horizon and objectives.
“Current politics sins of unreality”, wrote the jurist Sabino Cassese in the Corriere della Sera, since “it makes programs that are all present, without envisioning a future. It lists promises, but does not indicate times and costs ”. Thus, in the end it produces very similar electoral promises, so much so that “a citizen who reads the various electoral programs, without knowing their origin, could with great difficulty establish by which political force they were written”.
The philosopher Giorgia Serughetti was harsher, who in the newspaper Domani observed how “the parties present all the vices that have decreed the crisis of recent decades: the oligarchic drift, political irresponsibility, personalism, the lack of vision, the programmatic convergence that makes them indistinguishable from various points of view “. It is difficult in this way to capture the attention of citizens. But perhaps the objectives of the parties so far have been above all others.
Stefano Feltri, director of Domani, argues that they are making use of the electoral campaign “to contend for the consent of the establishment, not that of the voters”. This is demonstrated by the recent participation of leaders in public discussions – from that of Communion and Liberation in Rimini to the Ambrosetti forum in Cernobbio – whose “contents are irrelevant, so much so that performance is measured as in a talent show by the applausometer” by audiences formed by “organized groups with special interests”. And this, writes Feltri, “is above all to the benefit of the first Italian party. That of the abstentions ”.
Even this explains the forecasts on turnout, never so alarming. A few days after the vote of 25 September, the figure on abstention seems in fact to resist intact, fluctuating according to the surveys between 35 and 40 percent, including the undecided. This tends to make the percentage of consensus attributed so far to individual parties seem less solid. It is no coincidence that many – such as Antonio Polito in Corriere della Sera or Michele Ainis in Repubblica – in these days are wondering about those numbers and the possibility that the vote holds surprises or that in any case denies, as has already happened very often in the past, the forecast of the eve. But this uncertainty about the numbers also authorizes doubts about the electoral strategies that have been based on those numbers so far.
This partly explains – and not only because the time to vote is now near – the strong acceleration that the electoral campaign has had in recent days, which has also seen a partial change in the strategy of many parties.
Today the vote that the political forces seek with greater determination, in fact, is no longer the one to be subtracted from the opposing camp, but that of the parties that militate within their own camp. In fact an attempt to cannibalize fellow travelers, and even allies, which is no longer even masked.
On the other hand, if it is not possible to predict what the voters will really do who still a few days after the vote declare themselves abstained or undecided, and if we add to this the reasonable certainty that the right will win anyway, the electorate will more easily contestable becomes that of the area, that is the one available within its own deployment. And this happens both in the field of the right and in that of the center left.
As was to be expected, all this translates today into an urgent request for a useful vote, that is, in the request of the strongest party of an array to be voted in order to avoid dispersing the vote by choosing the smaller parties of the coalition. It is a contingent necessity, but the drift towards the logic of the so-called lesser evil is now a structural element of the political strategies in the second republic, especially in the center-left.
Even on the right, competition is developing more and more among the leaders
It is not surprising, therefore, that in these days it was the Democratic Party (Pd), with its secretary Enrico Letta, who spoke explicitly about a useful vote, and made it the central topic of the electoral campaign. However, also for the ways and times, this acceleration denounces above all the errors committed so far by the Pd himself. And there have been many.
Focusing everything on the danger of the return of fascism and the initial politically sterile insistence on the so-called Draghi agenda confirmed the feeling of a party without a defined physiognomy, and therefore capable of existing above all in relation to power.
In the meantime, the 5-star Movement has managed to gain credence as a left-wing force, also because a part of the Democratic Party itself has helped to indicate Giuseppe Conte as a point of reference for progressives, despite the political history of the movement telling something quite different. Hence the need for these days of the Democratic Party to cover itself to the left, which also transpires from an interview significantly released by Letta al Manifesto. Here Letta attacks the cinquestelle for their attempt to occupy the space on the left, and then also attacks Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi who, on the right flank, are carrying out a similar erosion of the democratic vote.
Even on the right, the competition has been developing more and more between the leaders of the coalition for some days. The rivalry between Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni for the leadership of the right is nothing new, but the consolidation of Meloni’s leadership is leading Salvini to increasingly take positions very different from her, and in an increasingly explicit and noisy way.
Thus, while Meloni strives to accredit his Atlanticism to reassure those in Italy and abroad who cultivate doubts about his suitability to govern the country, and almost embrace the Draghi agenda, Salvini opens the debate on the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, forcing the ally to react clearly.
For the good of Italy
But on the right, the clash between the leaders has to do above all with a possible post as president of the council. According to the internal pacts of the coalition, it should be up to who will get the most votes, and therefore according to the polls to Meloni. But some observers think that such a hypothesis is not unwelcome only in the center-left: the tightening of tones between Salvini and Meloni in the last few days would be there to confirm it.
In short, Meloni could win the elections but lose the government, also because the electoral system does not provide for automatisms of this kind. On the other hand, according to Il Foglio, she Meloni “does not trust Matteo Salvini” and “is convinced that she can betray her in the course of construction”, so that in the end she “could give up Palazzo Chigi”.
But there are also those who believe that Russia will be the terrain on which the relationship between the allies, once in government, could enter into crisis. And who, like Dagospia, pushes himself to hypothesize a new government of national unity, which could be born even if Lega and Forza Italia do badly in the elections. Guido Crosetto, co-founder of Fratelli d’Italia and listened to as adviser to Giorgia Meloni, in an interview with Avvenire said in turn: “For the good of Italy, Giorgia, if she were to serve in a particularly difficult or tragic moment, would speak with Letta and would call Letta without any hesitation, just like Conte or Calenda. If the fate of Italy is at stake, everyone must work together. I think the first to be fully aware of it are Mattarella and Draghi ”.
They are for the moment only rumors, of course. They are analyzes and forecasts. Ready to be denied as well as the electoral polls.