[NTDTV, Beijing time, May 14, 2022]The epidemic control measures have hit China’s economy hard. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has called for “stabilizing employment” three times in half a month. At the same time, the party media reiterated the “going to the mountains and the countryside” in the Mao Zedong era, asking college students to “go to the places where the motherland needs them most.” Some analysts pointed out that this reflects that the challenges facing China’s employment situation should not be underestimated.
Analysis: China’s employment faces two major challenges
At the executive meeting of the State Council of the Communist Party of China held on May 11, Li Keqiang demanded that fiscal and monetary policies be oriented to give priority to employment and “stabilize the economic market.” This is Li Keqiang’s third emphasis on “stabilizing employment” in half a month.
On May 7, he warned at the “National Employment Stabilization Work Teleconference” that China’s employment situation was “complex and severe”, and that all government departments should promote the “resumption of work and production” of enterprises to help small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households survive. Difficulties “retain jobs”.
At the same time, Li Keqiang also called for strengthening employment services for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers.
Prior to this, Li Keqiang “decided to strengthen the policy of stabilizing jobs and promoting employment” at the executive meeting of the State Council on April 27.
Hong Kong’s “Ming Pao” quoted an analysis that Li Keqiang mentioned “stabilizing employment” three times within half a month, which shows that the challenges facing China’s employment situation should not be underestimated.
The analysis believes that China’s employment problem faces two major challenges: on the one hand, the epidemic situation in the century and the situation in Russia and Ukraine have further exacerbated the downward pressure on the economy; on the other hand, the number of Chinese college graduates exceeded 10 million for the first time this year, and is expected to reach 10.76 million, a record. new highs.
China’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.8% in March, the highest level since May 2020. But the official figures are thought to have shrunk badly, and the reality could be worse.
The New York Times reported on May 6 that the two groups most affected by the CCP’s blockade and epidemic prevention measures are migrant workers with a population of about 280 million and the 11 million college students who are about to step out of school.
Wu Aihua, deputy director of the Department of College Students at the Ministry of Education of the Communist Party of China, said at a meeting on April 19 that college graduates this year are facing multiple employment pressures, and the degree of difficulty is even higher than in 2020.
On May 6, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the “Opinions on Promoting Urbanization Construction with County Towns as an Important Carrier” to guide the economic development of counties. According to industry insiders, the development of county economy can promote grass-roots employment, absorb rural labor force, and guide the return of urban talents, thereby helping to disperse employment pressure.
However, the call for urban youth to go to the countryside is reminiscent of the “going to the mountains and going to the countryside” movement in the Mao era. In the 1950s, in order to solve the employment problem, the CCP forced the younger generation to live and work in the countryside. At that time, the CCP media clearly stated that “going to the mountains and going to the countryside” is an “important measure” to “relieve the pressure of urban employment”.
This year, Chinese college graduates are facing “the most difficult year to find employment in history”. The party media “People’s Daily” again mentioned “going to the mountains and going to the countryside”, asking college students to “go to the places where the motherland needs them most”.
On May 4, the People’s Daily published an article on its front page, “In the New Era, the General Secretary looks to the youth like this.” The article mentioned: “During the construction period more than half a century ago, in August 1955, the first youth volunteer wasteland reclamation team rushed to the Great Northern Wilderness. After a lapse of Jiazi, General Secretary Xi Jinping stood on the black soil, in the country’s ‘big granary’ ‘ He looked into the distance .
The article also appeared in the article “to solve the severe shortage of food, a three-generation wastelander went north to start a business“, “go to the place where the motherland needs it most”, “stay in the desert for a lifetime” and other sentences.
Expert: Lockdown measures drag down China’s economy
The CCP’s continued lockdown measures have taken a heavy toll on the economy. On May 5, China’s Caixin media and research company Markit released the latest economic data showing that China’s service industry purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 36.2 in April, down 5.8 percentage points from March; The PMI fell 6.7 percentage points to 37.2 from 43.9 in March, with both indexes hitting new lows since March 2020.
In this regard, Taiwan’s general economist Wu Jialong told VOA that the two major PMI indexes both fell to new lows in recent years, and both fell below the 50% line of prosperity and decline, indicating that China’s economy has been “heavyly damaged.”
He believes that China’s economy has been hit by the “five crises” of employment, exports, private investment, real estate and debt default, and it may continue to be depressed in the future.
In view of the CCP’s epidemic prevention policies that have hit the economy hard, many international investment banks such as Barclays, an international credit rating agency, and Nomura have lowered their estimates of China’s GDP this year. Among them, Nomura revised down to 3.9%, far below the 5.5% target set by the CCP.
Xie Tian, chair professor at the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina, told VOA that if the epidemic worsens, and the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will be blocked, it will inevitably bring down the Chinese economy.
But he believes that even if the economy collapses, the CCP will not easily loosen controls. On the contrary, it may return to the old path of the planned economy under Mao Zedong.
(Comprehensive report by reporter Luo Tingting/responsible editor: Wen Hui)
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