February 25, 2022 10:04 am
No Western leader will ever admit it, but Vladimir Putin has won, at least in the short term. The massive war unleashed by the Russian president over the entire Ukrainian territory places two asymmetrical armies facing each other. The battle is clearly unequal.
The diplomatic mobilization underway since 24 February – at the UN, within the European Union, in NATO and at the G7 – will have no immediate impact on Putin, who has decided to take action with full knowledge of the facts.
The arsenal of sanctions adopted by the Americans and Europeans, as well as any measures to strengthen NATO’s military devices on the “east flank” of the alliance or the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, will not immediately change the balance of forces.
The objective of these decisions is first of all to reassure the countries of the “front”, members of NATO and the European Union and particularly concerned by the Russian offensive because in Soviet times they were dominated by Moscow. Poland, the three Baltic states and those bordering the Black Sea have good reasons to fear destabilization coming from the east, and in this context, NATO does well to adopt a defensive attitude.
What will happen once Russia eliminates all Ukrainian military infrastructure?
It is likely that Putin has evaluated the possible sanctions in his political calculation, also because he has already been hit after the annexation of Crimea but also for the war in Donbass and for the attempted murder of the opponent Alexei Navalnyj. This, however, does not prevent him from pursuing the most blatant possible violation of international law.
The reality is that Westerners think mostly about afterwards. What will happen once Russia eliminates all Ukrainian military infrastructure? Will the Russian army remain in the country as an occupation force, with the risk of a resistance that the Westerners will no doubt care to feed? Or will Putin appoint a very loyal one to lead a dismembered and destroyed Ukraine?
Change the balance of forces
The other post issue concerns the evolution of the balance of power with Russia, a vital aspect in this context. Vladimir Putin feels in a position to reject diplomacy, to launch his offensive and implicitly threaten Westerners with a nuclear attack. This is because he feels capable of changing the balance of forces.
The credibility of the United States, just emerging from the defeat in Afghanistan, and of a Europe that Putin despises has been undermined by three months characterized by a tug-of-war that ended with this war that no one was able to prevent.
Much will depend on the real strength of economic sanctions, a weapon whose effectiveness is historically questionable. The test will be all the more important if we consider that behind Russia there is the China problem, much more existential for the United States. If Washington emerges weakened from the current crisis, the signal could be misinterpreted in Beijing.
Beyond Ukraine, the victim of a dictator that we have not been able to stop in time, the future of the world is at stake, that of the new cold war of which President Volodimyr Zelenskij spoke, the tragic hero of this conflict that is coming from the past.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)