Vladimir Putin and Milorad Dodik – (photo Kremlin.ru )
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has once again highlighted the deep divisions that cross Bosnia and Herzegovina, fractures that the status of candidate member of the EU still fails to resolve. We talked about it with Sead Turčalo, professor of Political Science at the University of Sarajevo
What are the main developments in Bosnian politics related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
A few months before the war in Ukraine, Putin and Dodik had a top secret meeting: the Kremlin has not given any news about it, but Dodik has publicly declared that he has met Putin, without specifying the very essence of the meeting.
At that moment Dodik clearly wanted to appropriate all the competences related to security, defense, intelligence at the entity level. And he started with the medical equipment agency because he wanted to test the international community, see how he would react. He ordered the government to prepare some laws to take over the intelligence and re-establish the armed forces of Republika Srpska while Russia invaded Ukraine. It was obvious that what was happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina just before the Ukrainian war was supported by Moscow: the strategy was to have Dodik continue to gnaw at competence after competence at the central state.
When the war in Ukraine started, two parallel things happened. On the one hand, the Russian embassy in Sarajevo has become more assertive or even aggressive in its statements towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. For the first time, he openly stated that Russia is against any kind of integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina into the Western political sphere.
On the other hand, Dodik has become more reluctant to adopt the laws he had in his drawer, because he realized that the war in Ukraine would last a long time. But at the same time popular support for Russia in Republika Srpska has strengthened: Russian aggression, for example, was openly supported by Srpska’s public broadcaster.
What could have been the concrete content of the meeting between Dodik and Putin?
Perhaps they have agreed on a series of actions to escalate the conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. And then also in Kosovo, consequently also throwing North Macedonia into turmoil. I think Putin was convinced that – by extending a second front to the Western Balkans – he would have the upper hand over Ukraine in a few days, creating a totally new geopolitical landscape in Europe.
But even if you wanted to, would Republika Srpska really have the military means today to support a secession?
It sounds like a mission impossible, but in a scenario where such a move were to happen, Serbia would be under pressure to support Republika Srpska. Over the past decade, what Republika Srpska has been trying to do is militarize its police force. Srpska will try in the long term to adopt the law on the restoration of the armed forces. Dodik, in Republika Srpska, is testing the boundaries of the international community and how far he can be allowed to go. And we see that there are no red lines when it comes to the international community.
For example, as I said, the Assembly of Republika Srpska has adopted a law on the agency for medical equipment, which is a state competence. This law is published in the Official Gazette of the Republika Srpska. The international community issued some warnings and as soon as Dodik postponed the adoption of the measure, the international community itself seemed satisfied. However, the law has never been annulled or revoked.
Do you think that the institutional structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina is in a deep crisis or on the verge of collapse?
Today I don’t think Dodik has room to go back from his positions because he has gone too far. Even though Bosnia and Herzegovina has received candidate status for EU membership – and this concession from Brussels is mainly aimed at convincing the Serbs to actually abandon their Russian friends – Dodik is actually not willing to do so. On the one hand we need EU money, but despite the “economic carrot” Dodik remains a true friend of Russia.
Do you think Turkey is also playing a role as it has a somewhat ambiguous position towards the war?
So far I do not think that Turkey has played a decisive role in the way Bosnia and Herzegovina conducts its foreign policy. But Turkish influence is growing. The Bosniaks, those who vote for the SDA in the first place, really consider President Erdoğan their political mentor, looking at him in a paternalistic way. Until recently Erdoğan was not seen talking about an anti-Western conspiracy against Muslims here in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But when he came here just before the election, he used that kind of language.
In general, however, at least 70% of Bosniaks support the country’s EU integration and NATO membership. Bosniaks have strong feelings towards Turkey, but their foreign policy stance is leaning firmly towards the West
This material is published in the context of the project “Serbia and Bosnia Herzegovina, the war in Ukraine and new risk scenarios in the Western Balkans” co-financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MAECI). The MAECI is in no way responsible for the information or points of view expressed within the framework of the project. Responsibility for the contents lies solely with OBC Transeuropa. Go to the project page
Have you thought about a subscription to OBC Transeuropa? You will support our work and receive preview articles and more content. Subscribe to OBCT!
Comments, as far as possible, are screened by our staff before being made public. The time required for this operation can vary. Go to our policy