[Epoch Times, June 8, 2022]On June 7, as one of the “practical actions” to “welcome the victory of the Party’s 20th National Congress”, “Xi Jinping’s On Strengthening the Army and Rejuvenating the Army (3)” was officially published. It is said to “help all officers and soldiers learn and comprehend Xi Jinping’s thought of strengthening the army in a comprehensive and systematic manner”, and “strengthen the political consciousness, ideological consciousness, and action consciousness of maintaining the core and obeying commands.”
This is the old routine of the Xi authorities. “Xi Jinping: Strengthening the Army and Prospering the Army” has come out (3), and of course there are (1) and (2) ahead. Five years ago, in May 2017, the book “Xi Jinping: Strengthening the Army and Prospering the Army” was released, which was only “used by leading cadres above the regiment”.
Xi’s “19th National Congress” got his wish, and took advantage of the trend to “amend the constitution” in the following year, removing the term limit of the president of the state. But Xi’s smooth sailing days ended here, and the situation began to change. First, the US-China trade war started (2018), then Hong Kong’s “anti-extradition” democracy movement (2019), and the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee was postponed until the end of October 2019 (delayed). nearly 2 years). And “Xi Jinping’s On Strengthening the Army and Rejuvenating the Army (2)” was launched in October 2019, and this time it is no longer limited to “the use of leading cadres above the regiment”, but covers all officers and soldiers, and the intention cannot be more obvious.
Now, less than half a year before the “Twenty National Congress”, it is widely believed that Xi will break the routine and seek three consecutive terms. This is a major event for Xi and the CCP, and the situation is complicated. In comparison, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao before Xi Jinping left after serving their second term; Jiang Zemin was so greedy for power and incumbent that the general secretary handed it over to Hu Jintao, and he made a conspiracy to successfully remain as chairman of the Military Commission, but he only stayed for two more years. , and finally handed over the position of Chairman of the Military Commission. Although Jiang still holds real power after ceding his position, he still does not dare to ignore political conventions in form.
On the other hand, entering 2022, the situation will become more and more unfavorable for Xi San’s re-election. First, the economy sucks. At the end of last year, the authorities judged that China’s economy was facing the triple pressure of “shrinking demand, supply shock, and weakening expectations”. They demanded that this year “seek progress while maintaining stability”, and set the annual GDP growth target at 5.5%, but there was no long-term solution. In the face of the double blow of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the outbreak of the epidemic, it is a question whether the economic market can be maintained. Second, before the Russian-Ukrainian war, Xi and Putin signed a high-profile joint statement; after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, they supported the Russian side, which not only caused a split in domestic public opinion, but also put the CCP in an international predicament. Third, adhere to the extreme “dynamic clearing” policy. The closure of Shanghai has caused public resentment and shaking the world. The so-called “political advantages”, “policy advantages” and “system advantages” of the CCP’s response to the epidemic have been completely bankrupt.
In such a situation, although Xi Jinping is the “core” and does his best to seize power and maintain stability, he is politically passive. It’s very simple, Xi Jinping is going to break the routine for three consecutive terms, what political achievements do you have? What foresight has turned the tide? The anti-Xi forces have too many shells.
It is not enough for Xi to control the army and declare military power. The key is to fight a political turnaround, stabilize the economy, and adjust the epidemic prevention and control policy. However, on these two points, Xi is not only lackluster, but can be said to be foolish.
For example, on May 25, Li Keqiang held a “National Video and Telephone Conference on Stabilizing the Economic Market” attended by 100,000 people, acknowledging the poor economic conditions in China and urging local governments to boost the economy. Apart from the leadership of the State Council, not only did Xi not attend such an important meeting, but also none of the other Politburo Standing Committee members showed up, allowing Li to sing a one-man show. What’s more, on the night of the meeting, the CCP media deleted a lot of Li’s speech, and frantically deleted the full text of the speech circulating on social media; at midnight, the central media “Economic Daily” suddenly published an article entitled “A Comprehensive Dialectical View of the Current Economic Situation”. The article basically denied Li’s speech, and the next day the article was reprinted in full by Xinhua News Agency, People’s Daily and other party media.
What signal is this sending? Completely messed up. This is not so much a display of political differences at the highest levels of the CCP, but rather a misstep by Xi. This not only made officials at a loss, believing that there are two voices in the central government, but also increased the dissatisfaction of people from all walks of life against Xi.
At this time, instead of facing the reality, Xi Jinping vigorously channeled social emotions and tried his best to resolve differences at the top. Instead, he declared military power in a high-profile manner. This cannot be considered a rational approach. And, for the military, is Xi Jinping really under control? Not necessarily. Of course, through “fighting tigers” and “military reforms”, Xi has purged a large number of Jiang’s troops and disrupted the ranks of officers, but it has also blurred the boundaries between enemy and self. It’s hard for Xi to really trust anyone. No one knows when a dark horse will appear. The senior officers changed like a revolving beacon. The soldiers did not know the generals and the generals did not know the soldiers. The atmosphere of suspicion became a major hidden danger for Xi’s army. It’s all right, the officers follow the rules; if the situation changes, there’s no telling what’s going to happen.
Before 2022, many people thought that there was no suspense about Xi’s re-election; now it seems that the “Twenty Congress” is full of variables. The CCP may collapse because of this.
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Responsible editor: Gao Yi