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“Resolutely Oppose and Contain ‘Taiwan Independence'” was incorporated into the CCP constitution for the first time, drawing great attention from all walks of life in Taiwan. Scholars generally believe that the CCP’s move is more symbolic than actual, but in the long run, it will exacerbate “brinkmanship” across the strait and heat up the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
The “Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party of China” passed the resolution on the “Constitution of the Communist Party of China (Amendment)”, adding “Insist on building the military through politics, strengthening the army through reform, technology, talent, and law, and the people’s army.” Build a world-class army, fully, accurately and unswervingly implement the policy of ‘one country, two systems’, and resolutely oppose and contain ‘Taiwan independence’.”
The resolution pointed out that enriching the above content “is conducive to adhering to the road of strengthening the military with Chinese characteristics, promoting the steady and long-term practice of ‘one country, two systems’, promoting the reunification of the motherland, and promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.”
Comparison of old and new party constitution
Sung Wen-ti, a political scientist at the Australian National University, pointed out to the BBC’s Chinese analysis that the content of the new party constitution does not indicate specific actions or timetables for reunifying Taiwan, but it reflects that the CCP is more concerned about the internationalization of the Taiwan issue and the risk of external intervention. , he believes that cross-strait relations will be further strained.
Song Wendi said: “The previous party constitution rhetorically regarded Taiwan as a ‘compatriot’ to be united, while the new party constitution emphasizes that the underlying desire of the Taiwanese people is a ‘risk’ to be guarded against. This may only be a semantic difference, but as a guiding document , it would dampen Beijing’s moderately dovish voice and prevent it from taking more conciliatory measures against Taiwan, increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation.”
Looking back at the amendments to the party constitution passed by the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China five years ago, the words related to Taiwan at that time were “Continuously strengthen the unity of the people of the whole country, including compatriots in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Macao Special Administrative Region, Taiwan compatriots and overseas Chinese. According to the ‘a The country and the two systems’ policy, promote the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macau, and complete the great cause of the reunification of the motherland.”
Lev Nachman, an assistant professor of the International Doctoral Program in Asia-Pacific Studies at the National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told BBC Chinese that the new “anti-Taiwan independence” statement in the CCP’s party constitution is not new. No policy changes have actually been made, nor does it pose a greater threat to Taiwan. “By contrast, Xi Jinping, who was re-elected as the third general secretary, will continue his authoritarian rule for many years to come, and he clearly intends to escalate force against Taiwan, which is more dangerous than any written word.”
Cross-Strait “Borderline Politics”
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Ye Yaoyuan, a professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in the United States, also told BBC Chinese that the symbolic meaning of the CCP’s new party constitution involving Taiwan is greater than the actual content, and it is an explanation for China’s interior, showing that it will not hesitate to fight. attitude, and “Taiwan independence” has become a slogan that the CCP appropriates at any time. “What is ‘Taiwan independence’? Are the 8.15 million Taiwanese who voted for Tsai Ing-wen all ‘Taiwan independence’? The CCP’s so-called ‘Taiwan independence’ is that whatever you do is your fault.”
He believes that Taiwan is not in danger in the short term, but the CCP’s move will further stimulate Taiwan’s internal preparations for war. “The more intimidation Taiwan is, the stronger the Taiwanese will be, and the result will be counterproductive. The more votes the DPP gets, the more the two sides will be in a position where it is difficult to turn back – Wen Gong It’s useless, you can only use force to intimidate.”
He explained that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are in “brinkmanship”, “the two sides continue to increase their clamor, intimidate each other, and push the war to the limit. Taiwan will be closer to the United States, and the CCP will continue to fly its military aircraft, but they are still at the same time. Under one framework, it is even more dangerous if Xi Jinping pushes the next step.”
Ye Yaoyuan pointed out that there are three factors that will make Xi Jinping attack Taiwan by force. The first is that China’s economy is declining, and external actions must be taken to divert internal conflicts; It is Xi Jinping’s inability to grasp objective information, which led to misjudgment. “Now the Central Standing Committee and the Politburo are all his cronies. He lives in a bubble. Will anyone tell the truth to him?”
What do you think of the blue-green camp in Taiwan?
Regarding the discussion of the CCP’s constitution concerning Taiwan, the Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council stated that the government’s cross-strait policies are firmly consistent, continue to stand firm on the “four insistences”, strengthen the “four tenacities”, defend national sovereignty and democratic freedom, and do not back down or waver. The previous ruling authorities abandoned the old thinking of aggression and confrontation, resolved differences in a pragmatic manner in a peaceful and reciprocal manner, and assumed due responsibility for stabilizing the situation across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen previously proposed the “Four Persistences”, namely upholding the constitutional system of freedom and democracy, upholding that the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other, upholding that sovereignty cannot be invaded and annexed, and upholding that the future of the Republic of China, Taiwan, must follow Taiwan. the will of the people. The “Four Resiliences” include building a leaner economy and industry, social safety nets, democratic and liberal institutions, and national defense capabilities.
It is currently in the preparation stage for the “nine-in-one” county mayor election in November, and all camps have responded to this.
Guo Guowen, secretary of the DPP Legislative Yuan, said that the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has become the “Xi Central Committee.” In the next five years, China’s Taiwan policy depends on Xi Jinping alone, and it is expected to become more and more tough.
Zhao Tianlin, a legislator of the DPP, said that on the one hand, the CCP has written the provocative “one country, two systems” into the party constitution, and on the other hand, it says that it wants to develop peace, democracy and freedom. “This is quite ironic.”
Ma Ying-jeou: Worry about war within five years
The Kuomintang said that it firmly opposes any actions that intend to harm the Republic of China, including “Taiwan independence” and “one country, two systems”, and will always stand with Taiwanese public opinion and adhere to the three central tasks of “defending the Republic of China and safeguarding democracy.” freedom, maintenance of cross-strait and regional peace”.
Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou said that in the eight years he has been in power, no one has ever said that there will be war between the two sides of the strait, but no one dares to say so now, and he is worried about a war between the two sides of the strait in the next five years. He quoted Zhao Shaokang, chairman of the China Broadcasting Corporation, as saying “Vote for the DPP, and young people go to the battlefield”, saying that “vote for the KMT, there is no battlefield on both sides of the strait.”
Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun said that the Kuomintang’s stance is always to “defend the Republic of China”, and now the cross-strait relations are very serious. He criticized the DPP for every election for the “Old Communist Party” to be the biggest voter, but now everyone in Taiwan is talking about “Anti-green”, calling on the DPP to stop causing cross-strait confrontation.
Ke Wenzhe: What is the mainland’s definition of “Taiwan independence”?
The People’s Party said in a statement that Taiwan must strengthen its armaments and raise the national defense awareness. “Good” advocates that the cross-strait dialogue channel should be established as soon as possible, and at the same time, actively strive to participate in international affairs and increase the bargaining chip of peaceful coexistence with China.
The People’s Party also pointed out that the situation in Hong Kong in the past two years has made Taiwanese people not have expectations for “one country, two systems”. The biggest problem at present is that China has the right to interpret “Taiwan independence”. No matter what political party is in power in Taiwan, any policy proposition that does not explicitly support the “1992 Consensus and One Country, Two Systems” is all forms of “Taiwan independence” for China.
People’s Party Chairman Ko Wenzhe said in an interview that Taiwan’s reunification and independence are not the mainstream politically, but that the real mainstream is Taiwan. He asked the mainland’s definition of “Taiwan independence”, “Taiwan does not listen to the DPP’s words and becomes a passer-by of the Chinese Communist Party. If it does not listen to it (the Chinese Communist Party), it will be called Taiwan independence, wow! This is troublesome!”