Goodbye Santiago? Other than bipolarity, in the political sense of the word. Here it seems that we are dealing with bipolarity as a bipolar disorder, as a mass psychiatric phenomenon. After the defeat of one of the most advanced constitutional texts in the world – in the referendum of September last year 2022 – Chileans gave the right-wing a majority in the new Constituent Assembly. And what rights, and what a majority. The Partido Republicano, born on the right of the right, took over 35% of the vote (and 23 seats out of 51). Never had a single party won so many votes since the “return to democracy” in 1990.
Gabriel Boric he is still in office, but the victory of the youngest president furthest to the left seems light years away. Yet that was only a year and a half ago. Now a right-wing majority has consolidated in the country which makes his government almost impotent. Many signals, and for some time already, indicated the orientation that was prevailing in public opinion. An impressive reversal of priorities compared to thesocial outbreak of October 2019.
Even when Boric’s election was being celebrated, a part of his supporters shouted “El que no salta es paco” (whoever doesn’t jump is a policeman, a carabiniere) and now in all the most recent polls carabinieri they are Chile’s most beloved institution. Problems with public order, increased crime, illegal Venezuelan immigrants shooting. Violence figures remain among the lowest on the continent but the right has rallied on insecurity.
To the “Lampedusian” situation on the Chile-Peru border is added a small but violent and persistent Mapuche guerrilla warfare in the central south. And inflation. Problems that already existed with the previous Pinhera government (right, or institutional centre-right) but… in fact, people massively voted for Kast’s republicans. And he didn’t vote them for their positions on the Constitution, which Republicans wouldn’t want to change while keeping the one they inherited from Pinochet, but as a political protest. For order, for security, against excessive Mapuche autonomy and, let’s face it, for private property and for the so-called freedom of choice in matters of education, health, pensions.
Three years ago, or even just two, they all seemed to have become social democrats. “Chile was the cradle of neoliberalism, it will be its grave,” Boric declaimed. Now they all seem to have become at least half-liberals. For the entire period ofpop even violent protests were justified in the name of the priority struggle for the welfare state and to reduce inequalities. Now it’s more or less the opposite. What happened?
The low turnout in elections and referendum precedents, and instead the high participation due to compulsory voting (from last year’s referendum) are two fundamental factors to be taken into account. The people who mobilize, even when there are a million in the square, it’s not the same people who votes if voting is compulsory. The previous Constituent Assembly which at times looked like the assembly of a social center had been voted by 43% of Chileans, with almost 6 million valid votes. This time the valid votes were almost 10 million.
According to some analysts, almost all of the success of the Republican right can be explained by their ability to represent a majority (or almost) silent. All or almost all the analyzes in the progressive field point the finger at the bad impression that the 2021 Constituent Assembly had given, with its naive claim to write the world anew instead of limiting itself to establishing some principle on which it was possible to have the majority of consensus . They forgot about the right. At this point one would almost be tempted to rewrite all of Chile’s past history as the history of a conservative country. Allende and Popular Unity they won and governed for a majority effect, because right and center were divided, but they did not have a majority in the country.
Returning to more recent times, however, it remains difficult to deny that thepop, the social uprising of October 2019 expressed prevailing sentiments. And then – as in other Chilean comments I’m reading – we should consider that these things happen in history. Revolt and restoration, ebb and flow. I don’t know how many there are but surely there are Chileans who have somehow participated in thepop, perhaps also in the election of the “re-foundationist” Constituent Assembly of 2021 and who this time voted for Kast’s Republicans. The bipolars, in fact. If the Republican party passed in no time dal 10 al 36% Is there anyone who will put him back on the corner in a very short time?
The sentiments of the old guard as they prepare to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the coup will not be enough. Kast will say what the coup was an unfortunate episode caused by the divisive attitude of the left. This time the right with God Country Property (and Family, but perhaps without removing gay marriage) comes to power without bombing the presidential palace. And we certainly can’t blame the CIA. You in case of fate. Because maybe sometimes in history fate prevails over political efforts.