Downstream Cotton Raw Stocks Are Low, Yarn Stocks Slightly Increased_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Pioneer Futures Author: Pioneer Futures

Research report text

【Fundamentals】

supply side,Domestic new cotton processing is coming to an end. Brazilian cotton planting is drawing to a close. In the new season, the area of ​​US cotton fell sharply.

consumer side,US cotton export sales decreased week-on-week, sales to China decreased, and shipments decreased week-on-week. Domestic new cotton sales increased week-on-week. The operating rate of textile enterprises increased week-on-week.

inventory side,bonded areacottonInventory decreased week-on-week, and national commercial inventories increased week-on-week (inventory in Xinjiang decreased, and inventory in the Mainland increased). The inventory of cotton raw materials in spinning enterprises increased, and the inventory of yarn increased week-on-week. Gray cloth inventory is high.

In terms of price difference,The inside and outside are hung upside down, and the price difference is reduced. The profit of spot pure cotton yarn decreased slightly. The USDA supply and demand report in January was generally neutral: the beginning inventory was reduced by 21,800 tons, the output was reduced by 224,300 tons month-on-month, the consumption was reduced by 41,400 tons month-on-month, and the ending inventory was reduced by 185,100 tons month-on-month. month-on-month decrease. Both supply and demand are weak, and neutral is more.

Specifically look at, the production cut is mainly due to India. The reduction in consumption is mainly in Indonesia, Pakistan, Vietnam, and the United States. These countries reflect the weakening demand in Europe and the United States. China’s output is increased, consumption is increased, and the ending inventory remains unchanged. The domestic balance sheet reflects a neutral pattern.

【Summary and Operation Suggestions】

supply sidethere is not much driving on the supply side.

demand side, U.S. cotton sales turned poor. The domestic spot demand is still in an improving trend, and this situation has been priced in the market. At present, there are no good new orders, and the consumption margin has weakened.

InventoryThe inventory of downstream cotton raw materials is low, the inventory of yarn has increased slightly, and the inventory of gray cloth is still high, which has not been effectively digested.

[Specific operation]

The market fell, warehouse receipts increased, and downstream inventories increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to downstream orders and inventories. Due to the profit of downstream spinning, the absolute value of raw material inventory is still low. If the 05 contract pulls back below 14,000, go long.

【Fundamental Data】

[spot price]

【Spot Price 2】

【Disk price and position 1】

【Disk price and position 2】

【Disk price and position 3】

【Disk price and position 4】

【Disk price and position 5】

【Spot Basis】

【Spot basis and disk price difference】

【Disk price difference 1】

【Disk price difference 2】

[variety price difference]

【Ginning and spinning profit】

【Global cotton supply and demand】

【Monthly Forecast of Global Cotton Production】

[Monthly Forecast of Global Cotton Consumption]

[Monthly Forecast of Global Cotton Stock]

[Monthly Forecast of Global Cotton Stock Consumption Ratio]

【Positions without pricing】

[CFTC US cotton positions]

【CFTC Managed Fund Positions】

【Picking and selling processing and sales】

【Activation rate】

【US Cotton Export】

[Annual sales of American cotton in the current market]

[US Cotton Next Market Annual Sales]

【U.S. Cotton Unloaded Volume】

【Cotton Import】

【Cotton Yarn Import】

【National Reserve Transaction】

[Weekly Statistics on Road Transportation of Cotton Out of Xinjiang]

[Monthly statistics on cotton transportation out of Xinjiang]

【Trade volume of staple fiber cloth in China Textile City 1】

【Trade volume of staple fiber cloth in China Textile City 2】

[Trading volume of American upland cotton]

【Monthly Yarn Production】

【Cloth output of the month】

[Retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in the current month]

[Clothing retail sales in the current month]

[Export amount of textile yarn, fabric and products in the current month]

[Export amount of clothing and clothing accessories in the current month]

【Zheng Mianwarehouse receipt]

【Weekly inventory statistics of textile enterprises】

【Weekly Statistics of Cotton Commercial Inventory】

[Monthly Statistics on Cotton Turnover Stock]

[Monthly Statistics on Cotton Industry Inventory]

【Yarn Gray Cloth Inventory Days】

【Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers Index】

【Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers Index】

【China Cotton Textile Industry Prosperity Index】

【China Cotton Textile Industry Prosperity Index】

【China Cotton Textile Industry Prosperity Index】

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