On June 15, the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in May and the basic situation of the national real estate market from January to May.
In May, the sales price of newly-built commercial housing (hereinafter referred to as “new housing”) in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell down from the previous month, and the sales price of second-hand housing (hereinafter referred to as “second-hand housing”) decreased from the previous month. The year-on-year increase in sales prices of commercial housing in first-tier cities fell, and the overall year-on-year decline in second- and third-tier cities slowed down. Among them, the sales prices of new houses in Zhanjiang and second-hand houses in Kunming led the country.
according tosecuritiesTimes ·BrokersAccording to the statistics of Chinese reporters, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 46 cities saw a month-on-month increase in the sales price of new houses, a decrease of 16 from the previous month; 15 cities saw a month-on-month increase in the sales price of second-hand housing, a decrease of 21 from the previous month.
Judging from the data on both ends of supply and demand in the real estate market in May, from January to May,real estate developmentThe decline in investment and newly started area continued to expand; the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 464.4 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%.
Experts believe that the real estate market data in May weakened overall.However, with the peoplebankCarry out interest rate cut operations, follow-up residential mortgagesinterest rateThe possibility of down-regulation increases. As the macro policy is expected to continue to stabilize the economy, the policy to stabilize the real estate market is also expected to be optimized.
The overall increase in the sales price of new houses fell in May from the previous month
In May of this year, the number of cities where the sales prices of new and second-hand housing increased month-on-month decreased.
from various citiespriceIn terms of month-on-month growth:
The sales price of new houses in the four first-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou rose by 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.1% month-on-month, and Shenzhen fell by 0.2%. The sales price of second-hand houses in first-tier cities From a month-on-month increase of 0.2% to a decrease of 0.4%, of which, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
The sales prices of new houses in 31 second-tier cities rose by 0.2% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month;
The sales prices of new houses in 35 third-tier cities changed from an increase of 0.2% in the previous month to a flat level;
Judging from the year-on-year increase in housing prices in various tier cities, the year-on-year increase in sales prices of commercial housing in first-tier cities has fallen, while the year-on-year increase in second- and third-tier cities has expanded or the rate of decline has narrowed.
Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, said that the increase in sales prices of new homes in first-tier cities dropped significantly in May, mainly because the new home market in first-tier cities rebounded significantly in the first quarter, and developers began to raise prices in the second quarter. Although new citizens and young people in first-tier cities have rigid needs and demand for house replacement, they are more sensitive to prices and have expectations of price declines, resulting in lower prices after rising prices in the second quarter. Sales prices form a shock. In May, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities turned from rising to falling month-on-month, mainly because after the market rebounded in the first quarter, more homeowners chose to list. In order to sell as soon as possible, many homeowners chose to lower the listing price.
Real estate market development, sales data weaken
On the same day, the Bureau of Statistics also released the latest real estate market development investment, sales for sale, funds in place and other data.
fromreal estate developmentAccording to the completion of investment, from January to May, the nationalreal estate developmentInvestment was 4,570.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%; among them, residential investment was 3,480.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.4%.
The decline in real estate development investment from January to May was further expanded compared with that from January to April. Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, said that this indicator shows that the current real estate companies’ supply-side expansion capabilities are weak, and the impetus to boost the real estate market is insufficient. Real estate development investment has not improved, which is related to the effect of the previous policy implementation and whether the sales end has picked up significantly.
From the perspective of commercial housing sales and pending sales, from January to May, the sales area of commercial housing was 464.4 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, of which the sales area of residential buildings increased by 2.3%. The sales of commercial housing were 4,978.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4%, of which the sales of residential buildings increased by 11.9%. At the end of May, the area of commercial housing for sale was 641.2 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. Among them, the residential area for sale increased by 15.9%.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, believes that since May, the frequency of policies to stabilize the property market in various places has slowed down, and some core first- and second-tier cities have optimized control policies, but residents’ willingness to buy homes is generally low, and the real estate market activity has further declined.
From the perspective of the funds in place of real estate development companies, from January to May, the funds in place of real estate development companies were 5,595.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and the decline was larger than that in the first four months. Among them, domestic loans were 717.5 billion yuan, down 10.5%; foreign capital was 1.3 billion yuan, down 73.5%; self-raised funds were 1,626.7 billion yuan, down 21.6%; deposits and advance receipts were 1,987.8 billion yuan, up 4.4%; personal mortgage loans were 1,035.4 billion yuan Yuan, an increase of 6.5%.
In this regard, Li Yujia pointed out that the decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds has expanded, which may reflect that financial institutions are increasingly worried about the risks of real estate companies, and loans and bond issuance are both declining.
The policy of stabilizing the property market may be optimized
On the whole, various real estate market investment, sales, housing prices and other indicators in May showed a trend of slowing down after expanding the decline. Experts generally believe that since the second quarter, data related to the real estate market has weakened again.
In Li Yujia’s view, the overall weakening of the real estate market data in May shows that on the one hand, the demand for the real estate market that rebounded in the first quarter was mostly a backlog of demand, and the demand quickly broke down after the release. On the other hand, it also shows that the overall connection capacity of the market is insufficient.
“In the short term, with no significant improvement in sales receivables and financing, real estate companies still face major challenges in cash flow, which directly restricts companies’ enthusiasm for construction and investment. It is difficult to significantly improve the amount of new construction and real estate development investment.” Chen Wenjing said that since the beginning of this year, the completion performance has continued to improve, which will provide certain support for real estate development and investment.
With the June 15 peoplebankLower MLF (Medium Term Lending Facility)interest rate10 basis points. It is generally believed that the reduction of the policy interest rate will lead to a reduction in the quotation of LPR with a period of more than 5 years this month, and the interest rate of residential mortgages may lead to a decline.
“The reduction of the policy interest rate this time has released a clear signal of steady growth, which will help promote the soft landing of the real estate industry as soon as possible.” Dongfang Jincheng Chief MacroanalystWang Qing said that looking back at the previous decline in LPR quotations, in January 2022, after the quotation of LPR with a period of more than 5 years was reduced by 0.35 percentage points, it led to a reduction of 1.29 percentage points in the interest rate of residential mortgages.
(Source of article: Brokerage China)
Article source: Brokerage China
Original title: Housing prices in 70 cities have been released, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have dropped!Overall investment and sales data weakened
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