Source: Baocheng Futures Author: Baocheng Futures
Research report text
Core point of view:
【Shanghai Copper】
The main futures price of copper in Shanghai fluctuated weakly on Friday night, continued its downward trend during the day, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon. The open interest was stable, and the basis difference was stable on a monthly basis. Last Friday, the U.S. non-agricultural employment data improved more than expected, leading to a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar index and a downward pressure on copper prices. The current seasonal accumulation rate is slightly faster than in previous years. After the festival, pay attention to whether the accumulated inventory exceeds expectations, which will put pressure on copper prices. From a technical point of view, copper prices fell below the 10-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20-day moving average.
It is recommended to wait and see
【Shanghai Zinc】
The main futures price of zinc opened lower and moved lower last Friday night, continuing its downward trend within the day. The overall situation showed a downward trend in lightening up positions, and the monthly basis difference remained stable. The inventory on February 6 was 176,200 tons, compared with the accumulated inventory of 11,200 tons on February 2. Under the background of loose supply and high profits of refineries, the accumulation of warehouses after the festival may exceed expectations, and the inventory warehouse receipts will rebound accordingly. It is expected that the monthly spread will continue to weaken.Absolute price, macro supportZinc priceThe accumulation of inventories exceeding expectations will suppress zinc prices, which are expected to fluctuate in the range of 23000-25000.
It is recommended to hold against arbitrage or short on rallies
【Shanghai Nickel】
The main nickel futures price fell sharply from the 220,000 line last Friday to the 210,000 line, and then stabilized and rebounded slightly in the afternoon. The basis spread narrowed and the monthly spread remained stable. The short-term Philippine taxation only stays on the hype on the news surface. After the good news is digested, as the non-ferrous sector weakens as a whole, the market’s bullish atmosphere is pre-cooled, and nickel prices tend to make up for the decline. Technically, you can choose an opportunity to take profit at the 210,000-line empty position, pay attention to the trading rhythm, and wait for the technical rebound to deploy again.
It is recommended to take profit on empty orders
1. Industry dynamics
➢ Copper
On February 2, Mysteel’s electrolytic copper stock was 285,100 tons, compared with the accumulated stock of 17,600 tons on Monday and 98,400 tons on January 19.
On February 6, Mysteel reported that after the new year, the upstream and downstream production enterprises in Qinghai, Jiangxi and other places have already started production at full capacity, and the production line is in full swing.
➢ Zinc
On February 6, Mysteel’s zinc ingot stock was 176,200 tons, which was 11,200 tons on February 2 and 29,700 tons on January 30.
➢ Nickel
On February 6, the Shanghai Nickel 2303 contract was the mainstream reference contract in the refined nickel Shanghai market. Jinchuan electrolytic mainstream discount + 7000 yuan / ton, price 218280 yuan / ton; Russian nickel mainstream discount + 6500 yuan / ton, price 217780 yuan / ton; Norwegian nickel mainstream discount + 11500 yuan / ton, price 222780 yuan RMB/ton; the mainstream discount of nickel beans is +5,000 yuan/ton, and the price is 216,280 yuan/ton.
2. Spot Price List
3. Related charts
➢ Zinc
➢ Copper
➢ Nickel
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