MILANO – A day of waiting for investors, who are waiting for the data on US inflation: the expectation is set for an increase from 8.6% in May to 8.8% in June, significant deviations would also represent a novelty for the Fed and its monetary policy choices. On the other hand, the US economy has so far shown that it can withstand the closure of the taps by the Central Bank, even if the International Monetary Fund has begun to scissor its forecasts for the coming years: the stars and stripes economy will grow by 2 , 3% in 2022, against the + 2.9% expected in June, and 1% in 2023, compared to the + 1.7% previously forecast.
While waiting to know the American prices, German ones have arrived from Europe: theinflation in Germany it rose by 0.1% monthly and 7.6% annually in June, in line with expectations. Also in June, the harmonized index recorded a decrease of 0.1% and on a trend basis an increase of 8.2%. Numbers higher than expected, however, from Great Britain’s GDP which in May beat expectations with a rise of 0.5% against forecasts steady at + 0.1% and a decline of 0.1% in April. On an annual basis, the increase is 3.5% compared to an expected + 2.7% and a previous increase of 3.7% while the quarterly figure grew by 0.4% against an unchanged forecast.
A very composite picture that for now suggests caution: the same one seen on the energy front, with oil recovering slightly after the sharp drops of the eve of recession fears and new waves of anti-Covid measures, especially in Asia. Precisely in Asia, the lists moved slightly upwards and Tokyo gained 0.5%.
The euro, on the other hand, remains a breath away from parity with the dollar.
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Great Britain, GDP exceeds forecasts
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Germany, inflation of 7.6% in June: as expected
European stock exchanges at the window: futures
It is the day of American inflation and the markets are waiting to understand what indications for the Fed will come from the June price numbers. The contracts on the Eurostoxx50 are up by a fraction of 0.03% while those on the Ftse Mib in Milan are up by 0.14%. Consumer prices in June are expected to reach their highest levels in 40 years, with a trend figure of 8.8% growth. High inflation is the signal for the fed to continue with the aggressive policy of interest rate hikes, despite the risks of recession. Meanwhile, on the currency, the euro is always close to parity with the dollar at 1.003.
Raw materials: oil is recovering, even gas is on the rise
Opens up at 178 euros per MWh on gas natural on the square in Amsterdam. Futures contracts for the month of August were up by 3.12%.
For the Petroleum, fresh from a deep slide, prices are slightly up this morning on the commodity markets: the barrel of crude oil for delivery in August changes hands at 95.89 dollars with an increase of 0.05%. Brent for September delivery is trading at $ 99.64 with an increase of 0.15%.
On the other hand, theoro: the precious metal with delivery in August changes hands at 1,722.40 dollars an ounce with a decrease of 0.14%.
Great Britain, GDP exceeds forecasts
The monthly GDP for May in the United Kingdom rose above estimates. The rise was 0.5% against forecasts steady at + 0.1% and a decline of 0.1% in April. On an annual basis, the increase is 3.5% compared to an expected + 2.7% and a previous increase of 3.7% while the quarterly figure grew by 0.4% against an unchanged forecast. In the previous quarter, the rise was 0.8%.
Also in May the reading of the industrial production English which recorded an increase of 0.9% on a cyclical basis.
Germany, inflation of 7.6% in June: as expected
The inflation rate in Germany compared to the same month last year was + 7.6% in June 2022, in line with forecasts. The inflation rate has therefore weakened slightly, but is still persistent at a high level well above 7%. In May, the inflation rate was + 7.9%. “The main causes of the high inflation were still the price increases for energy products,” explained Georg Thiel, president of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in June 2022 compared to May 2022.
Stock exchanges in Asia positive, Tokyo + 0.5%
Asian equity markets are bullish as investors await US inflation data, some concerns could lead to further interest rate hikes. Positive closing for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which recovers yesterday’s sharp drops but remains cautious in view of the American data. The Nikkei Index rose 0.54% to close at 26,478.77 points, while the broader Topix advanced 0.29% to 1,888.85 points.