Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Poland has acquired growing geopolitical weight in Europe and the strongly Atlanticist positioning of the Polish government led by the conservative premier Mateusz Morawiecki has put the more thorny dossiers opened with the European Union in the background.
In addition to the dispute over the rule of law, the other topic on which the most heated clashes have taken place between Brussels and Warsaw is undoubtedly immigration. On 8 June, the EU interior ministers had approved the new European measures on immigration with Poland and Hungary voting against. The Visegrad axis, cracked due to the different positions in the conflict in Ukraine between Morawiecki and Orbán, has been strengthened precisely on migration issues by opposing the choices of Brussels. The main crux of the dispute is the redistribution of migrants on which the two governments have always been opposed, an opposition increased in the last two years by the fact that Poland and Hungary have welcomed millions of Ukrainian refugees.
Immigration is one of the central themes of the Polish electoral campaign for the general elections of 15 October which will have an important value not only nationally but also in view of the 2024 European elections.
Morawiecki thus announced on August 13 in a video the holding of a referendum on EU asylum policies arguing that citizens will be asked if “they support the admission of thousands of illegal migrants from the Middle East and Africa on the basis of the mechanism of compulsory reception imposed by the European Commission”. Although the outcome of the referendum will not have a direct effect on European policies on migrants, Morawiecki’s political intent to rally his electorate on an identity issue is clear. It is no coincidence that the Polish opposition has accused the government of having called the referendum to animate the populist sentiments of its electorate. The referendum on migration policies will not be the only one Polish voters will be asked to express their opinion on, who will also have to have their say on the privatization of state enterprises, the raising of the retirement age and the topic of a fourth referendum will be announced in brief.
If the Polish government opposes the redistribution of migrants, the case of Italy is different, which has spent itself in support of the measure, despite the awareness that the problem of irregular immigration can be solved by intervening upstream and therefore in Africa. Yet between the two countries, thanks to Morawiecki and Meloni’s common membership of the ECR European group, relations are excellent as evidenced by an interview released yesterday to Corriere della Sera by the Polish premier: “Italy and Poland share a common experience in the field of illegal immigration and agree on the need to find long-term strategic solutions in the European Union’.
Morawiecki then added: «Political closeness is our strength and builds the potential for common solutions to the challenges we face as an EU. Poland and Italy want a strong Europe, an EU that is a global player and takes into account the interests of all member states, equally”. It goes without saying that in defining future balances much will depend on the outcome of the referendum and above all the Polish elections in October.