Epidemic situation in China: “Twenty Points” implemented 10 days after the infection surged, analysis pointed to different attitudes among the people and a split in society- BBC News 中文

On Sunday (November 21), Liu Xiaofeng, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a press conference that Beijing is facing the most complicated and severe prevention and control situation since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, and is at the most critical and stressful moment.

Beijing has also strengthened control measures, implementing blockade of high-risk areas, avoiding gatherings in low-risk areas, and advocating “not leaving the area unless necessary.” Starting from Tuesday, Beijing will implement “three inspections for three days” for all people entering and returning to Beijing: they need to complete a nucleic acid test every day for the first three days after arriving in Beijing, and stay at home until the negative result is released.

Chen Xi, an associate professor of global health policy and economics at Yale University in the United States, told BBC Chinese that the epidemic situation in Beijing will continue to deteriorate before it improves.

He pointed out that the essence of the “Twenty Points” is still to insist on trying to optimize the policy under “dynamic clearing”, but the lack of coordination and even contradictory new crown prevention and control measures of various departments may seriously affect China’s overall epidemic response strategy.

“The current medical system has not yet completed preparations. Once the coordination is not good, the number of infected and critically ill patients will increase rapidly, and the medical system will be overloaded, and the mortality rate will inevitably increase.” Chen Xi pointed out.

Chen Xi specifically mentioned that the current rate of booster injections for the elderly in China has generally stagnated, and the situation is worrying.

“In addition, the distribution of China’s aging population is very uneven. Rural areas and areas with poor medical conditions are often the areas with the largest proportion of the elderly population. After opening up, it is easy to cause a run on medical resources and cause major secondary disasters.” He pointed out.

According to Chinese official data, as of November 11, China has received a total of 3.44 billion doses of the new crown vaccine, covering 1.34 billion people. Among them, the number of people over the age of 60, the number of coverage and the number of full vaccinations accounted for 90.65% and 86.38% of this group, respectively. The full vaccination rate of the elderly over 80 years old in China is only 65.7%, and the number of booster vaccinations for the elderly over 80 years old is only 40% of the total population.

Deaths have been reported in mainland China in recent days, all of whom were elderly people with underlying diseases.

Chen Xi pointed out that the current situation in China is that the people who need more beating have a lower rate of beating.

“There is a lack of primary medical care, and it is difficult for the elderly to organize and administer vaccinations. The advancement of all these works has taken a long time. In addition, the monitoring system for vaccine adverse reactions does not disclose information transparently, and does not accept reports of adverse reactions from individuals other than medical institutions. Reaction cases. These have exacerbated vaccine skepticism among various groups and hampered policy assumptions of gradual liberalization,” he said.

China, which has experienced nearly three years of strict control, seems to have experienced anti-epidemic fatigue. In mid-November, there was a large-scale resistance to the epidemic prevention policy in Haizhu District, Guangzhou. Protesters fled the enforced blockade and clashed with police. At the end of October, there was also a suspected rare large-scale protest in Lhasa. Multiple video clips showed hundreds of people clashing with police at the scene of the demonstration.

After the promulgation of the “Twenty Measures”, some people welcome the relaxation of control measures. At the same time, some voices worry that if China relaxes control, it will cause the epidemic to break out again. There is an article circulating on the Internet titled “The country has done its best to protect you for three years, let the rest of the days be your own blessing…”

Chen Xi sees this wave of virus transmission surpassing the peak in Shanghai earlier this year in the coming weeks as an imminent crisis.

“Because the virus poses different threats to different groups of people: young people are more inclined to let go, while middle-aged and older people tend to be more inclined to support the strategy of remaining cautious, and because people suffer differently due to zero-coronavirus measures, different industries are affected. Different, so comprehensive and continuous strict coronavirus control measures will risk tearing society apart.” Chen Xi predicted.