The idea could be to keep one point firm, that of starting from quota 41. How the next intervention on pensions can then be declined depends on the resources that the government will have available. Both the intervention in the field of social security and that on citizenship income, with the possibility of transferring resources from the second item to the first, in fact start from the definition of financial quantities. The rest will then come as a consequence knowing full well that a new “Quota 103”, as the sum of 62 years of age and 41 of contributions, could cost approximately 700 million euros (1.4 billion in 2024) and would allow an audience 45-50 thousand people to leave their jobs earlier than the 67 years provided for by the Fornero law. But it is likely that real exits, as well as being staggered over the next year due to the introduction of the classic floating window, will stop at half of the audience – less than 25 thousand people therefore, thus halving the burden for the state coffers. – especially if it will be combined with a prohibition on cumulation with work as envisaged for Quota 100. In that case, compared to an audience of one million people with the requisites in the three-year period 2019-2021, about 380 thousand came out.
The floating window effect
In addition to introducing Quota 41 or 103, if you prefer, the government could then renew proven tools such as the Woman Option and Ape social. According to sources close to the dossier, there are several estimates that are being made while waiting to know the real availability of resources and then decide, and it is likely that a floating window period will be fixed, as was the case for Quota 100. At the time it was three months for private work and six months for the public, which however if confirmed also on this occasion would significantly reduce the advance for women employed in the public sector since with the current rules it is possible to leave the work, regardless of age, with 41 years and 10 months of contributions plus three months of floating window. The effectiveness of this measure would be practically nil for school women because they retire once a year.
The cohorts that will be interested in the measure if the minimum age is set at 62 are only those of 1960 and 1961 (therefore 62 and 63 years) because the older ones have already left with a quota of 100 (1959 with 62 years in 2021) and the younger ones will still be stuck. In fact, those who in 2023 will have 64 years of age and 41 of contributions already had 62 of age and 39 of contributions in 2021 and therefore had the requisites for Quota 100. If the Quota 103 operation proves too complicated, not even the re-proposal is excluded. of the old quota 102 (64 years of age and 38 of contributions) waiting to finalize, in consultation with the trade unions, the actual remainder which could then come into force in 2024.
A reflection on the possibility of making a contribution to those who decide to stay at work despite having the requisites for retirement by canceling the weight of contributions seems to lead to the exclusion of this measure. According to the technicians, in fact, such an intervention would have a very high flop risk, a bit like there was for the severance pay in the paycheck, given that the workers would hardly decide to have 10% of the salary in the paycheck immediately giving up the 33. % of contributions paid for your future pension.
Altolà of the unions
Meanwhile, the unions come to the government and a new request for an urgent convocation. “In recent days – declared the confederal secretary of the CISL Ignazio Ganga – we have seen various hypotheses re-emerge from the press that are not always consistent with the requests of the union, brought to the table of the Prime Minister Meloni and the Minister of Labor Calderone in recent days . Male and female workers need clarity and to be reassured that from January they will not undergo the five-year staircase to retire ». In fact, the trade unions’ request remains that of greater flexibility to retire, “any other measure cannot ignore the possibility of retirement starting from 62 years of age and also the option of retirement with 41 years of contributions regardless of age – recalled Ganga-. Alongside this, we reiterate all the other issues on the platform, from greater social security protection for women and for those who carry out burdensome and tiring, to support for supplementary pensions, to the opening of the discussion on the contribution-based guarantee pension, to the protection of pensioners’ income. . With regard to the revaluation of pensions, it must be clear that we will not accept any hypothesis of intervention that risks reducing the more favorable equalization mechanism that after years of battles we obtained in 2022 ».