[The Epoch Times, October 12, 2022]The “Twenty National Congress” is about to be held on October 16. The authorities tried their best to create a “victory” atmosphere, but the unexpected backfired, and the domestic and international situation became tense. In particular, the following three factors may have a subtle, complex and profound impact on the process and results of the “20th National Congress”, increasing the variables of the “20th National Congress” to a certain extent.
epidemic
According to official information, the epidemic in Beijing is currently heating up, and 15 transmission chains have been identified (through epidemiological investigations and laboratory gene sequencing analysis, 13 transmission chains were imported from outside Beijing), affecting 11 districts. From the 12th, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei customized express buses have been temporarily suspended across the board. (The national background is that since the 11th holiday, the infection rate in various places has increased significantly, especially in tourist cities and large cities. As of October 11, at least four provinces and six places have reported the occurrence of Omicron BF.7 mutant strains case.)
In fact, the authorities have always insisted on “dynamic clearing”, and for the “Twenty National Congress”, comprehensive stability maintenance and security measures have been widely rolled out across the country. In order to prevent and control the epidemic and ensure that cases do not enter Beijing, a “moat project” has been implemented in Tianjin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shanxi, and Shandong provinces and cities around Beijing, but it is still impossible to prevent the epidemic from entering Beijing.
This not only shows the complete bankruptcy of the government’s “dynamic clearing” epidemic prevention policy, but also shows that “human calculations are not as good as heaven’s calculations” and the limited manpower, but also poses a direct threat to the holding of the “Twenty National Congress”.
The 2,296 representatives of the “Twenty National Congress” have recently conducted intensive study and training in their respective provinces. Once these people enter Beijing, it will definitely increase the complexity of Beijing’s epidemic prevention. How do the authorities make sure nothing goes wrong? If a representative is infected with the epidemic, how will the “Twenty Congress” open? This is the unpredictable maximum variable.
recession
After Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, the long-term problems of the Chinese economy could no longer be concealed, and the growth rate continued to decline. The authorities engaged in “supply-side structural reforms”, called “new normal”, and hoped that the economic trend would be L-shaped and maintain a growth rate of 7%; the result was simply not possible, and had to change the slogan of “high-quality development”. In the 14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 long-term plan, the growth rate is lowered to 4.5% to 5.5%. At present, it seems that it is still difficult to achieve.
The authorities have also encountered the dilemma of China’s economy in 2022. At the end of 2021, they rarely publicly proposed a triple shock of “demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations”. In order to save face for the “20th National Congress” and make active arrangements, the annual target of 5.5% was proposed, “steady words first, and steady progress.” The tense situation in the Taiwan Strait has caused the economy to be precarious.
The authorities’ failure to maintain economic stability has four outstanding performances. First, the stock market plummeted. On October 10, the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell below 3,000 points again since May 10. This was the first time in nearly 30 years that A-shares trended before the National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Second, the exchange rate fell sharply, falling below 7.2 on September 28. Third, international financial capital began to withdraw. On October 5, data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) showed that a total of $98.2 billion was withdrawn from the Chinese bond market in eight months. This reverses the inflow of foreign capital since 2018 due to the CCP’s accelerated “financial opening up”. Fourth, consumption is downgraded. For example, data released by the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the Communist Party of China late at night on the 7th showed that the total number of domestic tourists in China during the “November” period this year was 422 million, an annual decrease of 18.2%, and only 60% of the same period in 2019; domestic tourism revenue; RMB 287.21 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, only 44% of the same period in 2019.
Since 1978, the CCP has been calling “economic construction as the center” and singing the “China Economic Miracle Theory”. Now that China’s economy is going from bad to worse, its future is uncertain. No matter how you excuse it, the incompetence of the authorities is obvious to all. Talk about it.
America’s fierce strategic competition
On October 7, the United States introduced a comprehensive and strictest export control measure aimed at curbing the CCP’s policy of military-civilian integration to use American chip technology to develop supercomputers, AI and other technologies for military and surveillance purposes. The strict terms are similar to the previous US sanctions against Huawei.
Obviously, the United States has activated the Huawei-blocking model to contain the CCP’s chip industry. Paul Triolo, a technologist covering China at the consulting firm Albright Stonebridge Group, said the move was an “important watershed” in U.S.-China relations and the growing competition for technology between the two countries. “The U.S. has basically declared war on China,” he said, in the face of China’s use of the nation’s power to acquire high-performance computers and pursue economic and security interests.
The Biden administration chose to introduce this most powerful new regulation on the eve of the 20th National Congress, and it has its own intentions. Some commentators pointed out that the White House deliberately displayed the “intense competition” between China and the United States, which significantly magnified the serious consequences of the CCP’s diplomatic failure with the United States, exposed the CCP’s scars, and continued to fuel the CCP’s infighting.
In fact, as we enter 2022, the CCP has been unable to cope with the continuous offensive of the United States. First of all, under the severe warning from the United States, the CCP did not dare to provide substantial assistance to Russia to fight the war. Secondly, because of fear of financial decoupling between China and the United States, the CCP was forced to make concessions. On August 26, it signed an audit and supervision cooperation agreement with the United States. Once again, in the face of the fierce “tech war” in the United States, the CCP has nothing to do except curse.
Since 2013, the CCP has been chanting that it has “strengthened”, claiming to engage in “major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics” and to establish a “new model of major-country relationship between China and the United States.” The lack of success has further worsened the CCP’s international situation. Since Nixon’s visit to China, the CCP has not been so passive (the Western sanctions after the June 4 massacre, the CCP got through in two years). The diplomacy of the authorities failed.
Epilogue
The CCP’s consistent slogan is to hold a “unity conference, a victory conference”, but from the current domestic and international situation, how can the Xi administration “unite” and “victory”? How can the Xi authorities defuse the above three shocks?
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Responsible editor: Gao Yi#