I winds of war blow like never before, while the diplomacy not only has she bogged down in the swamp of what many are beginning to consider a proxy warbut even back. This is the trend recorded by those who observed the last weeks of the war. A dangerous trend because it risks definitively breaking the delicate balance between confrontation on the battlefield and dialogue at the negotiating tables (or even just underground) which can prevent a escalation of the conflict that would mean Third World war. So while Vladimir Putin promises to use any means to ensure Russian victory, Xi Jinping he sends his foreign minister to present his own peace plan at the top of the executive of Mosca. A plan that already from the start does not like the United States because it would hand over to China, their main international competitor, the role of mediatoras well as representing a first step towards a new multipolar world order.
The new maximum level of tension was reached by the Russian president during his last speech at the Duma. Putin turned what was a war “against i Ukrainian Nazis” or to “liberate the Russian populations of Donbass“, in a clash “for the survival of Russia“. Translated using the military doctrine of the Federation: if the existence of the country is threatened, the use of atomic weapons it is allowed, even if Putin himself has guaranteed that “we will not use it first”. What also emerges is that the attentions of Kremlin they have definitely displaced themselves from the local enemy, the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyto the global one, i.e. the United Statesthe Nato and, by extension, i European countries.
A broader and more ambitious vision which, in the mind of the Muscovite leaders, should lead to a reorganization of theworld ordercon Washington which would lose its role as hegemonic power in favor of a new multi-polar equilibrium which foresees the rise of the Chinese, towed by Russia and, in the future, also by other growing countries of the world. A vision also shared by Beijing which represents the main meeting point with the Federation, so convincing Xi Jinping to talk about “friendship without limits” during the famous meeting with Putin during the inauguration of Winter Olympic Games of Beijing.
This alliance between Russia and China, with intent but never military, has triggered the reaction of the USA, already engaged in a commercial clash with Beijing sharpened during the mandate of Donald Trump which is now experiencing a new escalation. From the exchange of accusations on the alleged Chinese spy balloons intercepted over US skies and those that, according to Beijing, Washington would have sent over China, until the endless clash on Taiwan not tensions in the Indo-PacificThe battle is now well underway. This is also demonstrated by the choice of Joe Biden to fly to Kiev to meet Zelensky on the very day that the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yiarrived in Moscow to present in the Kremlin i 12 points of the peace plan. A move seen as a show of strength by Washington in its support for Kiev.
The problem, if we look at it only from the point of view of the war in Ukraine, is that we are talking about the two powers which, together with Russia, could decide the outcome of the conflict by sitting down at a peace table. But, as mentioned, the positions still appear very distant. There People’s Republic sent his personal message to the West: “Some countries need to stop feed the fire“. For the moment, however, the fire of war burns more than before, that of diplomacy has shrunk to a flicker.