Neglect of the social question leads to a democratic recession. Democracy threatens to become dysfunctional if it does not manage the globalization processes with the participation of the citizens. But turnout is falling, and at the same time the government coalitions in the member states are becoming more unstable and they are often in permanent voting mode. However, a “spectator democracy” is not able to cope with major challenges such as the climate, energy, pandemic and refugee crises. The voters need to be brought back, future prospects for the employees and the politicization of the European institutions.
Fall of Democracy?
The world level of democracy is back to where it was in 1989 in 2021. The last 30 years of democratic progress have thus been wiped out. In contrast to the decline in democracies, there are signs of an autocratization process in 33 countries with 36 percent of the world population. This process can also be observed in 20 percent of the EU member states, with Hungary and Poland being cited as examples, followed by Romania and Bulgaria, especially with regard to the lack of balance in institutional control between the judiciary, executive and legislative branches. At the same time, the EU stability index shows that Viktor Orbán has the most stable government in Europe. There has been no government crisis since 2010 and he has his country firmly under control. The current level of instability is unparalleled in the other member states: there has been at least one change of government in 21 states, four in Bulgaria, six in Austria and seven in Italy and Romania. In five EU countries, the government does not have a majority in parliament: France, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and Latvia. The Franco-German axis is no longer a motor for major European issues. Other alliances such as “Visegrád” or the “Frugal Four” have also flagged. Due to this heterogeneity in the structure of the European Council, it seems comparatively easy to block decisions, but woe to anyone who tries to build a majority.
The winner of this development is undoubtedly the European Commission. Even more so than in previous crises – such as the troika, the European semester or the deficit procedure – it is taking on new competencies or is being entrusted with them by the European Council. Along the blueprint of pooled vaccine sourcing, this model will be extended to other sectors and products – e.g. B. as part of the raw materials strategy, for armaments, procurement of energy sources, etc. A worrying change to an expertocracy.
The next two years will be an even greater stress test for the EU system. Because the world is in one “geopolitical depression‘ by escalating rivalry between economic and military blocs, leading to a global build-up even in countries that until now have pursued policies of appeasement, such as Japan. Just as Russia exerted influence in the US elections in 2016, it can be assumed that in the interests of the war in Ukraine, parties friendly to Russia are also being supported in EU countries. In view of the EU elections in 2024 and as a result of high and volatile energy costs and massive inflation, it is not unrealistic for radical forces to gain strength to the detriment of the democratic center. In view of this development, with regard to the elections to the European Parliament in 2024, the question arises as to how Europe can assert itself as a democratic entity. Proceeding from the analysis of voting behavior in different member states, proposed solutions are presented here that have been developed by the European trade unions.
The spectator democracy
In May 2022, Macron was able to prevail against the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in France after a runoff election. With a turnout of 60 percent, democratic support for his mandate is at its lowest point since 1969. Macron was aware of this when he explicitly addressed the non-voters: “Their silence is evidence of a refusal to make a decision that we also have to agree to.” In Germany, Chancellor Scholz was able to assert himself. He sees himself too criticism confronted because its democratic legitimacy is based on 25 percent of the voters. In contrast to France and Germany, a right-wing populist party, the Fratelli d’Italia (Italian Brothers), was elected to government in Italy – and with the lowest voter turnout in the country’s history at 64 percent lay. The development is therefore moving more and more in the direction of “exclusive democracy”, in which significant parts of civil society do not make use of their right to vote.
The same picture shows Europe as a whole. While in Western Europe in 1975 it was still an average of 82 percent, in 2012 only 75 percent of those eligible to vote went to the polls. In Eastern Europe, the decline in voter turnout is more dramatic, falling from 72 percent in 1991 to 57 percent in 2012. Voter turnout in the European elections fell from 62 percent in 1979 to 51 percent in 2019.
Is democracy in Europe in crisis?
| attitude towards democracy in general | |||
| importance | satisfaction | discrepancy | |
| Northern Europe | 9,2 | 7,0 | -2,2 |
| continental europe | 8,5 | 5,9 | -2,6 |
| Southern Europe | 8,6 | 4,2 | -4,4 |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 8,1 | 4,4 | -3,7 |
| hybrid democracies | 7,3 | 3,6 | -3,7 |
| in total | 8,4 | 5,1 | -3,3 |
The absence of almost half of the sovereign in the most important act of legitimation of representative democracy gives an indication of how (un)important political participation in the “res publica” has become for the majority of citizens.
Reasons for abstention
In all elections, the increase in abstentions and the success of populist parties is striking. Are democracies about to collapse, or are mature democracies better off than they were 50 years ago? On the one hand, the situation of women and minorities has improved and liberal rights have been strengthened. On the other hand, the privileged have settled too well into their two-thirds democracy. Because the bottom third was left behind economically, socially and culturally. This is the broken promise of democracy, which must always be based on equality alongside freedom. This state is aptly called defective democracy designated.
The abstention from voting and the support for populist parties represent a crisis of representation and confidence. They are an expression of dissatisfaction with the political system. One shows Opinion pollthat approval for the idea of democracy in Europe is high. In contrast, satisfaction with how it works is significantly lower. According to this, people who are dissatisfied with democratic institutions are not necessarily hostile to the system, but disappointed by their performance. The real problem is not the level of turnout per se, but the social selectivity that goes with it. Because as empirically proven rule of thumb It can be said that social exclusion increases with falling voter turnout.
The combination of globalization and market deregulation has fueled the division of society in developed societies: into poor and rich, educated and uneducated, mobile and immobile. The distribution of chances in life is usually not based primarily on one’s own performance, but is primarily subject to the chance curatorship of unequal origin. The lower classes have every reason to distrust our democracy’s promise of equality. The economic division of society finds its parallel in public discourse. This is shaped by the cosmopolitan opinion elite and the educated middle classes of our society. They advocate open borders; open to goods, services, capital and people, be they workers or refugees. They are willing to give up national sovereignty rights in order to solve transnational problems on a European or global level, possibly also supranationally. In this insecure environment for employees, the likelihood of them leaning toward communitarian positions increases. These describe traditional values, anchoring in a manageable community, trust in the nation state with simultaneous distrust of supranational governance such as in the EU. Right-wing populist parties appropriate this line of conflict by using cultural project prejudices onto it.
Design model for a democratic future of the EU
From a trade union point of view, however, the cause is in the economic inequality to search. The financialization of the world economy has increased dramatically since the end of the last century. At the same time, income and wealth inequality. In Europe, for example, the 10 percent of the wealthiest households own 50 percent of the wealth, while the 40 percent of the least wealthy own 3 percent of the wealth (OECD 2017). This economic inequality could be compensated for by distributive measures, but this is insufficient due to the lack of state creative power and thanks to the guidance of the financial elite. The political imbalance is manifested by the average across the OECD Percentage of employees in the national parliament 5 percent compared to 58 percent in the general population.
Political inequality in favor of wealth owners also takes place through the depoliticization of economic and fiscal policy in recent decades. This means that decision-making in these areas works through institutions that have no direct accountability to voters. The deregulated global capitalism thus undermines the democratic creative power of the nation states. Central banks, whose influence has grown in dealing with the financial crisis, should be mentioned as an example of this “authoritarian liberalism“ is described.
Litmus test European elections 2024
The turnout at the Europeanhlen 2019 varied greatly in the member states – from 60 percent in Germany to 29 percent in Slovakia. The European Parliament therefore launched a reform of the electoral law in 2020, which provides for a strengthening of the top candidate principle and the introduction of a second vote with which European candidates can be elected via cross-border electoral lists. Because the next litmus test for the resilience of European democracy and its mobilizing power will be the European elections 2024 be.
In order for the democratic system to continue to function, it must align its performance with the needs of society as a whole. In this sense, political inequality must be combated. This is all the more important as the global challenges, in particular the conversion to a CO2-neutral economy, can only be mastered together. Trade unions and companies with co-determination are an important democratic element in shaping this transformation in a socially acceptable manner.