Beijing has been forced to face the reality that its great cause of reunification with Taiwan has stagnated following the victory of Lai Ching-te in the Taiwan election. The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council initially stated that the election would not change the overall direction of cross-strait relations, but experts are now questioning what Beijing’s next move will be in response to this setback.
Du Maozhi, director of Asia projects at the French think tank Montaigne Institute, believes that in the future, coercion will outweigh benefits in Beijing’s policy towards Taiwan. This marks a significant shift, as coercion had previously been greater than concessions under Xi Jinping’s leadership. Maozhi predicts that small coercive moves may occur in the short term, but they will be limited and not turn into significant pressure.
One key moment to watch will be Lai Ching-te’s inaugural speech on May 20th. Beijing is expected to closely analyze his speech to determine its next steps. Additionally, the choice of the president of the Legislative Yuan will also be a crucial factor in Beijing’s future policy towards Taiwan. Depending on whether the president comes from the KMT or another party, it could have a significant impact on Beijing’s approach.
Jeremy Mark, a researcher at the American think tank “Atlantic Council”, suggests that the 2024 election results indicate that the status quo in the Taiwan Strait will remain. This may mean that the two sides will spend the next four years without any negotiations, and China will continue to exert pressure.
The future of cross-strait relations remains uncertain, and Beijing’s response to Lai Ching-te’s victory will be closely monitored in the coming months.