Bloomberg proposes to test six test indicators
Bloomberg reported on October 6 that there is little suspense that Xi Jinping, the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, will win a third term at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Beyond that, however, there are other metrics to judge Xi Jinping’s success or failure at the 20th Party Congress.
First, if Xi Jinping can successfully promote three or more of his cronies to become members of the Politburo Standing Committee, such as Ding Xuexiang, director of Xi Jinping’s office, Cai Qi, secretary of the CPC Beijing Municipal Committee, Chen Miner, CPC Chongqing Municipal Secretary, or Li Qiang, the CPC Shanghai Municipal Secretary It is a sign of Xi’s victory; if all the three “tuanpai” Li Keqiang, Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua can “enter the permanent”, it will be a setback for Xi.
Secondly, if Xi Jinping can successfully promote Li Qiang, the secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, his direct descendant, to the post of premier, it means that Xi Jinping has no political resistance; but if Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua become the premier, it means that the CCP still has checks and balances on Xi Jinping.
Third, in the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, it is estimated that as many as two-thirds of the seats may appear new faces, and it is estimated that 80% of the seats may be held by Xi Jinping’s cronies; , or the promotion of officials with no apparent ties to Mr. Xi, suggesting that Mr. Xi had to compromise.
Fourth, CCP media have sporadically referred to Xi Jinping as the “people’s leader,” fueling speculation that Xi Jinping may seek to formalize the title. Before this, only Mao Zedong had this title. Therefore, whether Xi Jinping can get the title of “people’s leader” at the 20th National Congress reflects whether the cult of personality is still restricted within the CCP.
Fifth, whether Xi Jinping can get the title of CCP chairman can measure whether his power expands or not, because when Mao Zedong became the party chairman, he had the veto power over the decisions of the Standing Committee. If he is still only general secretary, it reflects that his power has not been further expanded.
Sixth, how the CCP revises the party constitution is another indicator of Xi Jinping’s success or failure. Five years ago, Xi Jinping wrote his “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” into the party constitution. Whether this year’s 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will further incorporate “Xi Jinping Thought” into the party constitution, making it comparable to Mao Zedong Thought, will reflect whether its power has risen to another level.
The Central News Agency reported that the Department of East Asian Studies of National Taiwan Normal University, the CCP Research Magazine, the Prospect and Exploration Magazine, and the National Library of China held an academic seminar on “The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and Regional Security” this morning (October 7).
Shao Xuanlei, an associate professor at the Department of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan Normal University, collected 12,345 pieces of news from the CCP media People’s Daily from January to June this year. Using a “text mining” method, he concluded that the frequency of “Xi Jinping” is much higher than that of other politicians. .
Shao Xuanlei pointed out that Xi Jinping himself is far ahead of other dignitaries in power, and appeared 1,151 times in 12,345 pieces of news, which is about a 9% chance. It is about 7 times more than Li Keqiang’s 155 times.
In addition, it is worth noting that Xi Jinping’s factions such as Ding Xuexiang and Yang Xiaodu of the Pujiang New Army; Li Qiang of the Zhijiang Group; Zhang Youxia of the New Northwest Army can all see that they have an important role in the near future and may have room for promotion in the future.
Cai Wenxuan, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science of the Academia Sinica, said that through a series of deployments over the past year, Xi Jinping seems to be practicing “a rehearsal of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.” For example, cadres competed to express their support for Xi Jinping’s re-election, and the people praised Xi Jinping’s image vigorously.
Cai Wenxuan also said that if Xi Jinping successfully seizes power at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, political issues will be left, such as the establishment of a succession mechanism and the institutionalization of the leadership system, which may be the test of the post-Xi period, whether China will maintain stability, and One of the important keys to the security of the Asia-Pacific region.
Xi Jinping’s Centralized Political Leverage
Frédéric Lemaître, a reporter from Le Monde in Beijing, wrote in an article on October 4 that there is no dispute that Xi Jinping is the number one leader of the CCP. .
At a symposium hosted by the Brookings Institution, an American think tank, on Oct. 4, Cheng Li, director of the John L. Thornton China Center, judged that Xi Jinping’s third term will be tighter. that power.
Li Cheng said that no major news has been leaked so far, and the outside world does not know who will become a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. This is a very rare phenomenon, which shows the unity and discipline within the Communist Party, as well as the internal There is no one who can challenge Xi Jinping’s authority.
Li Cheng analyzed that in the first two terms, especially the first term, Xi Jinping governed the country through cooperation with political partners, but in the third term, Xi Jinping will govern the country with his cronies and political allies. So, now that Xi no longer needs to rely on the approval of his political partners, power has naturally become more centralized.
Li Cheng believes that Xi Jinping is widely supported by the public in China. He has helped 800 million Chinese people out of poverty and proposed measures related to common prosperity. He also carried out military reforms, replaced corrupt generals in the army, and finally won power by fighting corruption.
In view of this, Li Cheng believes that Xi Jinping has political leverage and a more centralized political capital. He predicts that Xi Jinping is likely to be a fourth term, but the specifics still depend on his third term.
Deutsche Welle Chinese website reported on October 3, the Munich “Mercury” recently published an article entitled “The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: the prosperity of socialism and the mess of personnel – will Xi Jinping get his third term?” article.
When the author Christiane Kühl talked about the appointment of high-level personnel in the CCP, he quoted the analysis of Nis Grünberg, chief analyst of the Mercator Center for China Studies (MERICS) in Germany, as saying, “In the past, there were still different factions in the party. You know that certain representatives will be promoted from it.” And now, there’s really only one major Xi faction. Those belonging to other factions have less chance of promotion.
It is unclear whether Xi will succeed in placing his cronies in key positions, but it is certain that there will be a new prime minister and a new vice-president in the spring of 2023. Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua, the two leading candidates for the premiership, are both seasoned politicians who are considered pragmatic technocrats. However, if one of them gets the position, it shows that Xi Jinping cannot drive all personnel decisions, as neither Wang Yang nor Hu Chunhua belong to Xi Jinping’s faction and are said to have close ties to Li Keqiang’s clique.
The article argues that if Xi Jinping paid more attention to ideological correctness and loyalty than professional experience when promoting cadres, it would be reminiscent of the saying that “red specialists” rather than “white specialists” were required in the radical stage of the Mao Zedong era. That was what threw China into chaos.
One of Xi’s goals, the article said, is to incorporate “Xi Jinping Thought” into the party constitution, although the concept is rather vague.
Whether Xi Jinping will use the revision of the 20th Party Constitution to restore the party chairmanship has become an issue of concern to the outside world, and it is also one of Bloomberg’s test indicators to judge whether Xi Jinping has expanded his power.
Deng Yuwen, an independent scholar, wrote on the Deutsche Welle Chinese website on September 12 that there is a high probability that Xi Jinping will not restore the party chairman for three reasons: First, the “Xi core” has a high gold content, which is actually as great as the power possessed by the party chairman. The party chairman system is not so necessary; the second is that the general secretary system has been in operation for 40 years, and changing to the chairman system will appear too revealing, and make people inside and outside the party (not only his opponents) think that he has done too much; third, he I don’t want to arrange a successor at the 20th National Congress. If the party chairman system is restored, whoever will be the general secretary of the 20th National Congress will most likely mean that this person will become the successor. Judging from the current deployment, he does not want to abdicate after five years, at least two consecutive terms, or even three terms are possible.
Based on this, Deng Yuwen judged that Xi would not restore the party chairmanship at the 20th National Congress, and his revisions to the party constitution were mainly in terms of ideology and theory, political “two establishments”, dual economic cycles and independent innovation, and social governance. The eradication of absolute poverty and common prosperity, the so-called new ideas, new ideas and new strategies, such as the Global Development Initiative in Diplomacy and the Global Security Initiative, may be written into the party constitution.