The Council of Ministers: Nadef approved, the Update Note to the Economics and Finance document. In 2023, the Italian GDP will slow down to + 0.6%. According to what is learned, it is the data contained in the approved Nadef. In April Def, next year’s growth was estimated at + 2.4%. The Update was released in a reduced form and without the programmatic aspects that will be the responsibility of the new government. The Italian economy recorded six quarters of growth above expectations. The outlook is now less favorable due to the marked slowdown in the global and European economies, mainly linked to the increase in energy prices, inflation and the geopolitical situation.
In the Note, the estimated GDP growth for this year is + 3.3%, with an upward revision compared to the April Def forecasts (+ 3.1%). In 2023 it will slow down, as mentioned, to + 0.6%, but the prospect is to go back (in this case the estimates confirm the forecasts of the Def) to + 1.8% in 2024 and + 1.5% in 2025 “The GDP increase forecast for this year is revised upwards thanks to the higher than expected growth recorded in the first half of the year and despite the fact that GDP will decline slightly in the second half of the year”. The update of the forecast also highlights an increase in the path of inflation and wage growth; however, it is still expected that the inflation rate will begin to decline by the end of this year.
The trend net debt in 2022 drops to 5.1% (below the 5.6% target indicated in April with the Def) and will stand at 3.4% in 2023, still down from the estimate of the Def ( 3.9%). “In the updated projections for 2022, public finance benefits from the positive trend in revenues and the moderation of primary expenditure recorded so far this year, while it is affected by the impact on debt service of the increase in interest rates and the revaluation of the notional of government bonds indexed to inflation ”, explains the text, where however it is added that the figures have been estimated with a prudential approach and that even in a difficult situation like the one we are experiencing, the real numbers may be higher.