If the housing policy intended by the Government for to subsidies from Mi Casa Yathe country would return for at least five years to the state in which the allocation of resources was.
This is indicated by the center of thought ANIF, by showing its concern about the budget for the program and the modifications presented in the National Development Plan (PND).
ANIF considers that the resources allocated to Mi Casa Ya are insufficient and also returns the housing policy to 2018.
“The program has proven to be an efficient instrument to help purchase housing. In the last two years it has been able to grant between 60 and 70 thousand annual subsidies focused on households between 0 and 2 minimum wages. It is a program that it has removed the discretionary factor from housing policy and democratized government assistance in housing,” the report says.
Due to this situation, the Financial Association considers the budget assigned for the current period to be low. The investment in 2022 in Mi Casa Ya subsidies was around $2.5 billion for around 60,000 subsidies (more than 44 thousand delivered in 2022).
Budget
IThe document made public indicates that the budget addition to the approved General Budget of the Nation (PGN) 2023, filed on February 17, would increase by $1.5 trillion the resources for housing programs and strategic drinking water and basic sanitation projects that are in charge of the Ministry of Housing. Budget that, if approved, would increase the number of subsidies for the duration, but it would not be enough to reach the goal of 60,000 that the sector expects to continue the impact that the program has had, or for the 50,000 that it indicated the national government.
The report ensures that “the change in the factor for determining the VIS housing ceilings from legal monthly minimum wages (Smmlv) to UVT established in article 238 of the PND, implies two central risks for the sector. The immediate effect of the decree implies the modification of the VIS limits of 2022, which the article establishes, in most cases, will be 3,552 UVT equivalent to $150,647,424”.
ANIF assures that “this amount does not cover the significant increase in the minimum wage of 16%, the inflation of 2022 of 13.25% or the IPP that was above 20%. Therefore, this element would leave out the supply of housing that was structured to be low-income housing (especially in large cities), by disabling them from accessing the Mi Casa Ya program. In the medium term, taking into account that the costs for the builder can be located above the increases of the UVT, a process would be beginning in which the space for social interest housing is closed in the cities with the highest construction costs. production. Reason for which it is necessary to review the grace periods for the entry into force of the articles and the relevance of the UVT as an indexer of the ceiling.
assignments
The ANIF analysis establishes that “the budget that had been socialized in January 2023 for the Mi Casa Ya program was located at $560 billion. To understand the scope of the allocation in terms of subsidies, one must start from the fact that in 2022 60,159 subsidies equivalent to $2.52 trillion were granted; in a scenario without modifications, around 13,000 subsidies would be delivered in 2023. Level much lower than observed last year.
Indeed, with the new allocation ($1.5 trillion), which depends on the approval of the bill to add and make modifications to the PGN 2023, it would be speaking that, in the absence of modifications to the 2022 scenario, the Government could deliver 35 thousand subsidies.
This estimate could increase up to 44,000 subsidies if most of these were delivered to households from 0 to 2 Smmlv. With this, the per capita amount of the subsidy would be reduced, giving way to a greater volume of allocation. However, once again there is talk of a volume of subsidies lower than that observed in 2021 and 2022 (62,017 and 60,159, respectively) and the expectations of the sector.
Although the estimate proposed by the Minvivienda may be supported by the new allocation strategy, there are several points worth discussing to understand its feasibility.
Priorization
For example, that “the allocation would be structured based on the Sisbén score and by a criterion of territorial prioritization benefiting municipalities of category 4, 5 and 6, two additional barriers to entry that, although they were created with the intention of prioritizing those most in need, make VIS housing development unfeasible. In the first instance, the prioritization according to the Sisbén score assigns in the first categories to households that may not have the financial requirements to be able to access a loan, leading to the fact that the subsidies do not materialize. Under this scenario, the support of entities such as the National Guarantee Fund would be required to back credit obligations with guarantees of 100% coverage, which would translate into greater budgetary pressures”, says ANIF.
Likewise, the entity points out that “the prioritization by municipalities conflicts with the incentives, the ease and feasibility of building buildings in territories that are difficult to access.”, with little supply of services and goods, high construction costs and little profitability or return on projects. Likewise, they are the municipalities that have the lowest demand for housing and where the scale effects are wasted. In addition, it reduces the offer of subsidies in large cities, where there is still a significant population density that requires them”.
The risks with the Sisbén
ANIF maintains that the change in the “rules of the game”, that is, that the Mi Casa program It is no longer measured by minimum wages but by the Sisbén score, Although it seeks to target and reach more rural sectors, households that are not in the Sisbén bases will not be able to participate, “which limits the demand for the program due to a new access barrier.”
Although the targeting mechanism can be understood, ANIF and experts consider that it generates great elements of risk for the execution of the program in prioritized households, since they are the ones that probably have the least favorable conditions to access a home loan. “It remains to be established whether this will create bottlenecks in the system in the face of a current scenario of speed in subsidy allocation resolutions.”
In addition, according to the Center for Economic Studies, targeting by category of municipality leaves large cities with strong limitations on access to housing. “Because of the scoring system presented by the ministry, category 1 and 2 municipalities would be the most affected in favor of category 5 and 6 municipalities. In the process of expanding the program to more cities, there should be a study that supports the demand in this type of municipality since this criterion generates access barriers for low-income families that still require housing,” they conclude.